Q3 Guidance Splits: Raisers Point to Demand, Cutters Point to Operations

The raisers

Eli Lilly opened the split on October 29, when the company said in its 8-K filing that third-quarter worldwide revenue reached $24.4 billion, up 39 percent from a year earlier, and that it had lifted the midpoint of its full-year revenue guidance by $5.5 billion to a range of $91.0 billion to $92.0 billion. The filing also put reported earnings per share at $7.22 and non-GAAP earnings per share at $7.48, with full-year non-GAAP guidance of $35.00 to $36.00. m:…8149

Sirius XM Holdings reported third-quarter consolidated revenue of $2.15 billion in its filing, with net income of $317 million, up 7 percent year over year, and adjusted EBITDA of $694 million, up 3 percent. The company says it raised full-year 2026 guidance by $25 million across revenue, adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow, and added 5,000 self-pay net subscribers in the quarter, an improvement of 45,000 from the prior-year period. m:…2930

IDACORP reported third-quarter net income of $160.2 million and diluted earnings per share of $2.73, and the company says it increased full-year 2026 earnings guidance to $6.40 to $6.50 per diluted share. The filing tied part of the quarter to Idaho Power customer growth of about 15,000, or 2.2 percent, over the twelve months ended September 30, 2026, and to base rates that increased effective January 1, 2026, after the 2025 general rate case settlement. m:…0060

The cutters

Oshkosh moved the other way. The company says consolidated sales rose 5.7 percent to $2.84 billion in the third quarter, with net income of $138.4 million, yet it lowered full-year 2026 adjusted earnings per share guidance to a range of $8.50 to $9.50. The filing attributed the lower outlook to challenges in fire truck production throughput, even as access segment sales increased 20.7 percent to $1.34 billion while vocational segment sales fell 7.0 percent to $899.9 million. m:…0336

Xerox reported third-quarter revenue of $1.87 billion, down 4.7 percent year over year, and a GAAP net loss of $1,015 million that included a $955 million non-cash goodwill impairment charge. The company says it is suspending common and preferred dividends to preserve cash and reduce leverage, and it lowered full-year 2026 adjusted operating income guidance to $450 million to $475 million and free cash flow guidance to $50 million to $100 million. m:…1727

What separates them

Read together, the two groups differ less on demand than on what sits between revenue and guidance. The raisers pointed to items they could quantify and carry forward: Lilly to a higher revenue range, Sirius XM to an adjusted EBITDA margin that expanded one percentage point to 32 percent, IDACORP to a rate case already in effect. The cutters pointed to constraints inside their own operations: production throughput at Oshkosh and a balance-sheet reset at Xerox. That pattern suggests a professional reading the season should weigh company-specific execution at least as heavily as sector demand when judging whether a guidance change will hold. m:…8149 m:…2930 m:…0060 m:…0336 m:…1727

What to watch

The open question for each name is whether the revision sticks. Oshkosh must show fire truck throughput improving before the year ends, Xerox must show its dividend suspension and liability moves stabilizing leverage, and the raisers must show their new ranges surviving a fourth quarter that none of them has reported yet. Guidance is a forecast, not a result, and this morning offered both directions at once. m:…0336 m:…1727 m:…8149