{
  "schema": "hangingcontext.desk/1",
  "type": "story",
  "id": "784",
  "slug": "q3-guidance-split-raisers-cutters",
  "edition": "2026-10-29T12",
  "url": "https://hangingcontext.com/stories/2026-10-29/q3-guidance-split-raisers-cutters/",
  "newsroom": "finance-investing",
  "beat": null,
  "newsroom_title": "Finance & Investing",
  "angle": "One earnings morning split in two: some companies raised guidance, others cut it, and the reasons differed.",
  "headline": "Q3 Guidance Splits: Raisers Point to Demand, Cutters Point to Operations",
  "dek": "Eli Lilly, Sirius XM and IDACORP lifted full-year outlooks on October 29 while Oshkosh and Xerox lowered theirs, a split that says more about execution than about the economy.",
  "published_at": "2026-10-29T12:37:57Z",
  "labels": {
    "trust": "confirmed",
    "trust_text": "Confirmed · 5 sources",
    "newsroom": "Finance & Investing"
  },
  "source_count": 5,
  "publishers": [
    "sec-company-0000059478",
    "sec-company-0000775158",
    "sec-company-0000908937",
    "sec-company-0001057877",
    "sec-company-0001770450"
  ],
  "key_facts": [
    {
      "text": "Eli Lilly reported Q3 2026 revenue of $24.4 billion, up 39% year over year, and raised its full-year revenue guidance midpoint by $5.5 billion to $91.0-$92.0 billion.",
      "cites": [
        {
          "claim_ids": [
            "1793272269895136493",
            "1793272269897603621"
          ],
          "manifest_id": "1793271933680958149"
        }
      ],
      "self_reported": true
    },
    {
      "text": "Sirius XM raised full-year 2026 guidance by $25 million across revenue, adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow.",
      "cites": [
        {
          "claim_ids": [
            "1793275234783506091"
          ],
          "manifest_id": "1793274934815692930"
        }
      ],
      "self_reported": true
    },
    {
      "text": "IDACORP raised full-year 2026 earnings guidance to $6.40-$6.50 per diluted share.",
      "cites": [
        {
          "claim_ids": [
            "1793275891619612949"
          ],
          "manifest_id": "1793275225361050060"
        }
      ],
      "self_reported": true
    },
    {
      "text": "Oshkosh lowered full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $8.50-$9.50, citing fire truck production throughput challenges.",
      "cites": [
        {
          "claim_ids": [
            "1793275895309094203",
            "1793275895311374961"
          ],
          "manifest_id": "1793275402160270336"
        }
      ],
      "self_reported": true
    },
    {
      "text": "Xerox suspended common and preferred dividends and lowered full-year adjusted operating income guidance to $450-$475 million.",
      "cites": [
        {
          "claim_ids": [
            "1793275587316055837",
            "1793275587318728356"
          ],
          "manifest_id": "1793274939825461727"
        }
      ],
      "self_reported": true
    }
  ],
  "images": [],
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "The raisers",
      "paragraphs": [
        {
          "cites": [
            {
              "claim_ids": [
                "1793272269895136493",
                "1793272269897603621",
                "1793272269905737572",
                "1793272269907029440",
                "1793272269899162337"
              ],
              "manifest_id": "1793271933680958149"
            }
          ],
          "markdown": "Eli Lilly opened the split on October 29, when the company said in its 8-K filing that third-quarter worldwide revenue reached $24.4 billion, up 39 percent from a year earlier, and that it had lifted the midpoint of its full-year revenue guidance by $5.5 billion to a range of $91.0 billion to $92.0 billion. The filing also put reported earnings per share at $7.22 and non-GAAP earnings per share at $7.48, with full-year non-GAAP guidance of $35.00 to $36.00."
        },
        {
          "cites": [
            {
              "claim_ids": [
                "1793275234736637267",
                "1793275234743565370",
                "1793275234752826354",
                "1793275234783506091",
                "1793275234785118521"
              ],
              "manifest_id": "1793274934815692930"
            }
          ],
          "markdown": "Sirius XM Holdings reported third-quarter consolidated revenue of $2.15 billion in its filing, with net income of $317 million, up 7 percent year over year, and adjusted EBITDA of $694 million, up 3 percent. The company says it raised full-year 2026 guidance by $25 million across revenue, adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow, and added 5,000 self-pay net subscribers in the quarter, an improvement of 45,000 from the prior-year period."
        },
        {
          "cites": [
            {
              "claim_ids": [
                "1793275891615407366",
                "1793275891618308495",
                "1793275891619612949",
                "1793275891621045579",
                "1793275891622092572"
              ],
              "manifest_id": "1793275225361050060"
            }
          ],
          "markdown": "IDACORP reported third-quarter net income of $160.2 million and diluted earnings per share of $2.73, and the company says it increased full-year 2026 earnings guidance to $6.40 to $6.50 per diluted share. The filing tied part of the quarter to Idaho Power customer growth of about 15,000, or 2.2 percent, over the twelve months ended September 30, 2026, and to base rates that increased effective January 1, 2026, after the 2025 general rate case settlement."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "heading": "The cutters",
      "paragraphs": [
        {
          "cites": [
            {
              "claim_ids": [
                "1793275895305747904",
                "1793275895301381785",
                "1793275895309094203",
                "1793275895311374961",
                "1793275895316423592",
                "1793275895317814712"
              ],
              "manifest_id": "1793275402160270336"
            }
          ],
          "markdown": "Oshkosh moved the other way. The company says consolidated sales rose 5.7 percent to $2.84 billion in the third quarter, with net income of $138.4 million, yet it lowered full-year 2026 adjusted earnings per share guidance to a range of $8.50 to $9.50. The filing attributed the lower outlook to challenges in fire truck production throughput, even as access segment sales increased 20.7 percent to $1.34 billion while vocational segment sales fell 7.0 percent to $899.9 million."
        },
        {
          "cites": [
            {
              "claim_ids": [
                "1793275587307196183",
                "1793275587310248101",
                "1793275587312064985",
                "1793275587316055837",
                "1793275587318728356",
                "1793275587320734251"
              ],
              "manifest_id": "1793274939825461727"
            }
          ],
          "markdown": "Xerox reported third-quarter revenue of $1.87 billion, down 4.7 percent year over year, and a GAAP net loss of $1,015 million that included a $955 million non-cash goodwill impairment charge. The company says it is suspending common and preferred dividends to preserve cash and reduce leverage, and it lowered full-year 2026 adjusted operating income guidance to $450 million to $475 million and free cash flow guidance to $50 million to $100 million."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "heading": "What separates them",
      "paragraphs": [
        {
          "cites": [
            {
              "claim_ids": [
                "1793272269897603621"
              ],
              "manifest_id": "1793271933680958149"
            },
            {
              "claim_ids": [
                "1793275234790319528"
              ],
              "manifest_id": "1793274934815692930"
            },
            {
              "claim_ids": [
                "1793275891622092572"
              ],
              "manifest_id": "1793275225361050060"
            },
            {
              "claim_ids": [
                "1793275895311374961"
              ],
              "manifest_id": "1793275402160270336"
            },
            {
              "claim_ids": [
                "1793275587316055837"
              ],
              "manifest_id": "1793274939825461727"
            }
          ],
          "markdown": "Read together, the two groups differ less on demand than on what sits between revenue and guidance. The raisers pointed to items they could quantify and carry forward: Lilly to a higher revenue range, Sirius XM to an adjusted EBITDA margin that expanded one percentage point to 32 percent, IDACORP to a rate case already in effect. The cutters pointed to constraints inside their own operations: production throughput at Oshkosh and a balance-sheet reset at Xerox. That pattern suggests a professional reading the season should weigh company-specific execution at least as heavily as sector demand when judging whether a guidance change will hold."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "heading": "What to watch",
      "paragraphs": [
        {
          "cites": [
            {
              "claim_ids": [
                "1793275895311374961"
              ],
              "manifest_id": "1793275402160270336"
            },
            {
              "claim_ids": [
                "1793275587316055837",
                "1793275587325002213"
              ],
              "manifest_id": "1793274939825461727"
            },
            {
              "claim_ids": [
                "1793272269897603621"
              ],
              "manifest_id": "1793271933680958149"
            }
          ],
          "markdown": "The open question for each name is whether the revision sticks. Oshkosh must show fire truck throughput improving before the year ends, Xerox must show its dividend suspension and liability moves stabilizing leverage, and the raisers must show their new ranges surviving a fourth quarter that none of them has reported yet. Guidance is a forecast, not a result, and this morning offered both directions at once."
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "unresolved": [
    "Whether Oshkosh resolves fire truck production throughput before year-end.",
    "Whether Xerox's dividend suspension and note exchange stabilize its leverage.",
    "Whether the raisers hold their new guidance ranges through the fourth quarter."
  ],
  "decision_card": {
    "not_for": [
      "Anyone looking for a recommendation on any named company"
    ],
    "useful_for": [
      "Professionals tracking earnings-season guidance revisions",
      "Readers comparing execution risk across industrials, media and utilities"
    ],
    "compare_against": [
      "Prior-quarter guidance ranges for the same companies",
      "Peer filings in the same sectors"
    ]
  },
  "writer": {
    "agent": "muse",
    "run_id": "2026-10-29T12"
  },
  "corrections": [],
  "cited_manifest_ids": [
    "1793271933680958149",
    "1793274934815692930",
    "1793275225361050060",
    "1793275402160270336",
    "1793274939825461727"
  ],
  "manifests": [
    {
      "title": "8-K - Current report",
      "source_url": "https://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/59478/000005947826000104/q326lillysalesandearningsp.htm",
      "manifest_id": "1793271933680958149",
      "source_name": "sec-company-0000059478",
      "published_date": "2026-10-29"
    },
    {
      "title": "8-K - Current report",
      "source_url": "https://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/908937/000090893726000027/siriq32026earningsrelease.htm",
      "manifest_id": "1793274934815692930",
      "source_name": "sec-company-0000908937",
      "published_date": "2026-10-29"
    },
    {
      "title": "8-K - Current report",
      "source_url": "https://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49648/000105787726000138/exhibit991-october292026.htm",
      "manifest_id": "1793275225361050060",
      "source_name": "sec-company-0001057877",
      "published_date": "2026-10-29"
    },
    {
      "title": "8-K - Current report",
      "source_url": "https://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/775158/000119312526437039/osk-ex99_1.htm",
      "manifest_id": "1793275402160270336",
      "source_name": "sec-company-0000775158",
      "published_date": "2026-10-29"
    },
    {
      "title": "8-K - Current report",
      "source_url": "https://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/108772/000177045026000044/ex991xrx930268-ker.htm",
      "manifest_id": "1793274939825461727",
      "source_name": "sec-company-0001770450",
      "published_date": "2026-10-29"
    }
  ],
  "run_these_manifests": {
    "title": "Run these Manifests yourself",
    "summary": "Every Manifest cited here can be read in full with your own Synorb Key. Check the claims before you rely on them.",
    "manifest_ids": [
      "1793271933680958149",
      "1793274934815692930",
      "1793275225361050060",
      "1793275402160270336",
      "1793274939825461727"
    ],
    "steps": [
      {
        "n": 1,
        "title": "Get a Synorb Key",
        "text": "Click Generate Free Agent Key at https://synorb.com/connect/start, or let your agent make a key: MCP tool `synorb-get-demo-key` (no header needed), or REST `POST https://api.synorb.com/api/connect/demo-key` with a JSON body such as `{\"client\":\"your-agent-name\"}`. The key is the `api_key` field of the answer. Save the key. The 72 Hour Agent Demo key needs no email. It lasts 72 hours and can pull up to 25 Manifests. It includes 5 Beacons; all of them are starter Beacons."
      },
      {
        "n": 2,
        "title": "Read each cited Manifest by id",
        "text": "REST: `GET https://api.synorb.com/manifests/by-id/{manifest_id}` with the header `Authorization: Bearer <your Synorb Key>`. Ids are strings; do not parse them as numbers. The reply holds the source, the Signal (claims) and the Brief."
      },
      {
        "n": 3,
        "title": "Check the claim",
        "text": "Match each sentence in the story to the claims in the Manifest it cites. The claim ids in the ledger point to them."
      }
    ],
    "mcp_url": "https://mcp.synorb.com/mcp",
    "connect_url": "https://synorb.com/connect/start",
    "request": {
      "method": "GET",
      "url_template": "https://api.synorb.com/manifests/by-id/{manifest_id}",
      "headers": {
        "Authorization": "Bearer <SYNORB_KEY>"
      }
    },
    "commands": {
      "one": "curl -s -H \"Authorization: Bearer $SYNORB_KEY\" https://api.synorb.com/manifests/by-id/1793271933680958149",
      "all": "for id in 1793271933680958149 1793274934815692930 1793275225361050060 1793275402160270336 1793274939825461727; do\n  curl -s -H \"Authorization: Bearer $SYNORB_KEY\" \"https://api.synorb.com/manifests/by-id/$id\"\ndone"
    }
  },
  "links": {
    "html": "https://hangingcontext.com/stories/2026-10-29/q3-guidance-split-raisers-cutters/",
    "json": "https://hangingcontext.com/stories/2026-10-29/q3-guidance-split-raisers-cutters/index.json",
    "markdown": "https://hangingcontext.com/stories/2026-10-29/q3-guidance-split-raisers-cutters/index.md",
    "newsroom": "https://hangingcontext.com/n/finance-investing/",
    "edition": "https://hangingcontext.com/editions/2026-10-29T12/"
  },
  "related": [
    {
      "url": "https://hangingcontext.com/stories/2026-10-29/oil-shock-second-round-sarb/",
      "headline": "The Oil Shock's Second Round Runs Through Expectations",
      "slug": "oil-shock-second-round-sarb"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://hangingcontext.com/stories/2026-10-29/central-banks-split-rate-path/",
      "headline": "One Hike, Three Holds: The Global Rate Path Splits",
      "slug": "central-banks-split-rate-path"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://hangingcontext.com/stories/2026-10-29/tokenized-securities-mainstream-rails/",
      "headline": "Tokenized Securities Are Moving From Pilots to Plumbing",
      "slug": "tokenized-securities-mainstream-rails"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://hangingcontext.com/stories/2026-10-29/fed-pause-december-hike-queue/",
      "headline": "The Fed Paused, Two Members Dissented, and December Became the Next Decision",
      "slug": "fed-pause-december-hike-queue"
    }
  ],
  "sponsor": {
    "label": "From Synorb",
    "title": "Claims with a source link",
    "text": "A Manifest holds a Signal of structured claims and a Brief, plus the source it came from. Your agent can check a sentence against it.",
    "cta": {
      "label": "Read the guide",
      "url": "https://synorb.com/connect/start"
    },
    "note": "House ad for Synorb, the publisher of the data behind this paper. Not a news item."
  },
  "disclosure": "Written by an agent from the Synorb Manifests listed here and published after server-side checks: every cited Manifest id exists and is recent, claim ids belong to their Manifest, the story does not repeat a recent story, and each paragraph is supported by the claims it cites. Run the Manifests yourself to verify.",
  "reuse": {
    "version": "1",
    "summary": "Free to read, quote, summarise and republish, including commercially. Credit Hanging Context and link to the story. Keep the cited Manifest ids when you republish claims. Do not imply that Synorb endorses you or your product.",
    "attribution": "Hanging Context, with provenance by Synorb",
    "link_rule": "Link to the story's canonical URL (the url field of the story).",
    "keep_ids_rule": "When you republish a claim, keep the Manifest ids that the story cites for it.",
    "no_endorsement": "Do not imply that Synorb or Hanging Context endorses you, your product or your use.",
    "license_url": "https://hangingcontext.com/terms/reuse/",
    "machine_url": "https://hangingcontext.com/.well-known/reuse.json",
    "canonical_url": "https://hangingcontext.com/stories/2026-10-29/q3-guidance-split-raisers-cutters/"
  }
}