Stocks fell and bonds caught the money, while a Fed hike got likelier

What fell, and where the money went

The week of November 2 to 6 ended with a sharp split. The Nasdaq 100 fell about 6.4% on Thursday and the S&P 500 fell about 4.4%, and Emirates NBD describes both as their worst sessions since April 2025. The Nasdaq Composite fell 5.5% the same day, according to State Street, which puts the damage across the whole market rather than in one corner of it. m:…1405 m:…6032 m:…9984

The money did not sit still. DoubleLine reports that investors moved to bonds as a safety measure during the week, and the yield on 10-year US Treasuries fell by 12 basis points to near 4.84%, according to UBS. That is the classic flight to safety: equities sold, government debt bought, yields down. Commodities weakened in the same week, DoubleLine adds, so bonds were the refuge rather than raw materials. m:…2200 m:…1405

Morgan Stanley's fixed income head, Andrew Sheets, told listeners that bond markets have grown comfortable with the US midterm results despite an initial negative reaction in the first hours after polls closed. His argument is that uncertainty is now lower because the election results are known, and that tighter regulation of AI could stretch out the buildout and ease pressure from bond supply. AI spending has generated record amounts of bond issuance this year, pushing up spreads and yields, so a slower buildout would matter to bond buyers. m:…9727

The selloff started before the vote

The election did not start the correction. State Street says global semiconductors were already in a 20% drawdown before the midterm elections, and that the vote added political and regulatory uncertainty that accelerated a repricing already underway. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index then fell 12.3% on Friday, according to UBS, which shows the pressure kept building after the first day. m:…9984 m:…1405

UBS still calls the technology decline a de-risking event rather than a fundamental change, and it forecasts aggregate AI capital spending of $1.0 trillion in 2026, $1.4 trillion in 2027 and $1.5 trillion in 2028. The firm believes political opposition at state and local level is unlikely to change underlying demand for data centers, even though proposed US data center capacity of 400 gigawatts far exceeds its own buildout assumption of 90 gigawatts by 2030. m:…1405

Janus Henderson adds a local detail that national coverage misses. Democratic candidates in Texas, Georgia, Michigan and Ohio campaigned against data centers, and regulatory, permitting and zoning decisions for data centers happen at state and local level. The firm argues that established hyperscalers are better positioned than smaller neocloud providers to withstand rigorous regulatory oversight, and that AI companies may shift projects to friendlier jurisdictions if they hit an impasse. m:…2827

Safety and a hike, at the same time

Here is the awkward part. Investors bought bonds for safety while also raising their bets on a rate rise. DoubleLine reports that October payrolls data was strong, with the two prior months revised upward, and that the chance of a Federal Reserve hike at the December 9 meeting rose from 60% to 80% on the fed funds futures market. Manufacturing and services reports showed healthy activity, but inflationary pressures remain unabated, according to the same note. m:…2200

Across the Atlantic, the Bank of England raised rates by 25 basis points to 4.0% and warned that inflation could approach 5% next year, according to Emirates NBD, which also reports that the market probability of a December Bank of England hike rose to 50%. So the week gave bond buyers two different stories at once: safety from equities, and central banks still worried about prices. m:…6032

This suggests the market is not pricing one clean outcome. A slower AI buildout would ease bond supply and help Treasuries, while strong payrolls and sticky inflation point the other way on rates. Morgan Stanley economists expect the next US inflation number to show a notable step down, which would support the bond case, but the December meeting is now priced as a live hike decision rather than a formality. The tension between those two readings is the trade to watch into December 9. m:…9727 m:…2200