Four central banks, four answers: hikes in Stockholm and Sydney, holds in Warsaw and Mexico City

The hikers

Sweden's Riksbank raised its policy rate by 0.25 percentage points to 2 percent, with the increase taking effect on November 11, 2026, and said it expects further increases in the coming year if the current economic outlook holds. m:…1444

The Riksbank's reasoning rests on an inflation split: Swedish CPIF inflation was 1.5 percent in September 2026, but 3 percent once temporary fiscal-policy measures are excluded, while underlying inflation excluding energy prices was 1.6 percent. The bank also pointed to elevated global inflationary pressures from supply disruptions linked to the war in the Middle East. m:…1444

The Riksbank also reported that Swedish GDP increased during the third quarter of 2026 in line with forecasts, and set out its calendar: the minutes from the monetary-policy meeting will be published on November 10, 2026, and the next Policy Reports containing forecasts will be published on December 16, 2026. m:…1444

Australia's Reserve Bank raised its cash rate to 4.85 percent in a 6-3 split vote, according to Westpac's morning report. Governor Michele Bullock's comments after the decision were described as dovish, markets reduced expectations for near-term tightening, Australian three-year yields fell 7 basis points, and the Australian dollar fell 0.5 percent against the US dollar. m:…0543

The holders

Poland's Monetary Policy Council left interest rates unchanged, with the reference rate remaining at 3.75 percent, in a decision that Erste Bank's commentary says was in line with market expectations. The Council's statement contained no clear signal about the future direction of policy. m:…1218

The Polish hold came with a gloomier backdrop: elevated global inflation driven by higher energy commodity prices, and Polish GDP growth expected to slow in the third quarter, a slowdown the commentary says is consistent with market consensus. m:…1218

Erste Bank's commentary adds that US GDP growth remains close to its long-term average, as does Eurozone GDP growth, which frames the Polish hold as a pause amid steady, if unspectacular, growth elsewhere. m:…1218

In Mexico, BBVA Research expects the central bank, Banxico, to keep its policy rate unchanged at 6.50 percent this week. Third-quarter GDP and core inflation data for the first half of October challenged the dovish tone of September's minutes, while persistent output slack and a soft labour market point to limited demand-driven inflation. m:…2847

BBVA adds that domestic financial conditions in Mexico remain orderly, though core services inflation remains vulnerable to setbacks, which is one reason the bank expects patience rather than a cut. m:…2847

The common thread

Every decision in this set is framed as a response to the same forces, weighted differently. The Riksbank lists geopolitical uncertainty, concerns about AI investments and weak public finances in some countries among the risks to its outlook, while BBVA notes that Banxico is expected to look through a limited, preemptive US Federal Reserve hiking cycle. m:…1444 m:…2847

BBVA also records the US side of that picture: the Federal Reserve voted 10-2 to keep the federal funds target range at 3.75 to 4.00 percent, and the Mexican peso has depreciated amid expectations of further Fed rate hikes. m:…2847

The practical result is a fragmented rate map: two banks tightening while signalling different degrees of conviction, and two holding while watching energy-driven inflation on one side and softening growth on the other. For borrowers and savers operating across these economies, the direction of the next move now depends on which local data point breaks first. m:…1444 m:…1218