Households keep spending; homebuilders keep squeezing

The spending side holds up

Wayfair's third quarter is the clearest spending signal in the batch. The company reported total net revenue of $3.4 billion, with adjusted EBITDA of $236 million. US net revenue grew 11.4 percent to $3.0 billion and orders delivered rose 12.2 percent to 11.0 million, so the growth came from more orders, not only from higher prices. m:…0312

Performance Food Group's fiscal first quarter points the same way from a different corner of the household budget. The company reported net sales of $18.0 billion, up 5.5 percent, and adjusted EBITDA of $528.0 million, up 10.0 percent, attributing growth to case volume, particularly in the independent Foodservice channel, and to efficiency initiatives. Management reiterated its full-year fiscal 2027 guidance despite acknowledging macroeconomic challenges, which is a quieter version of the same confidence. m:…2714

Travel spending held up even through a storm. Marriott Vacations Worldwide reported contract sales of $565 million in the third quarter, up 29 percent year over year, and raised its full-year 2026 guidance for contract sales and adjusted EBITDA despite a $16 million adverse impact from Hurricane Lowell. A hurricane dented the quarter and the guide still went up, which says something about the underlying demand for vacation ownership. m:…2235

Builders sell more and earn less

Homebuilders are moving volume into a market that pays them less for it. LGI Homes reported third-quarter revenue of $444.5 million, with net income of $24.6 million, and delivered 1,222 homes, up 10.4 percent year over year. At the same time, the company narrowed its full-year 2026 closing guidance to 4,600-4,800 homes, citing ongoing affordability pressures affecting demand. More homes delivered, a narrower range for the year: volume today, caution about tomorrow. m:…3850

Smith Douglas Homes shows the squeeze more starkly. The company reported pretax income of $3.3 million and diluted earnings per share of $0.07 on home closing revenue of $262.5 million. Home closings and net new orders increased, but the company faced significant margin compression from challenging housing market conditions, and management emphasized a disciplined approach to capital allocation and land investment to navigate affordability pressures. Orders are coming in; the profit on each home is thinner. m:…0524

Havertys, selling furniture rather than houses, found a partial offset in an unexpected place. The company reported a 4.5 percent increase in consolidated sales to $203.2 million and diluted earnings per share of $0.39, helped by $3.2 million in IEEPA tariff refunds that bolstered gross profit margins to 62.3 percent. Management remains focused on store expansion, including entry into the Pennsylvania market, while navigating inflationary pressures and interest rate volatility. A tariff refund is not a business model, but in this quarter it was the difference between a squeezed margin and a defended one. m:…6211

Two consumers, one quarter

The split in these filings is not between spending and not spending. Wayfair's order growth, Performance Food Group's case volumes and Marriott Vacations' contract sales all describe households still buying. The split is between businesses that convert that spending into profit and builders whose margins absorb the cost of affordability pressures. Furniture, food and travel converted; homebuilding, at least at Smith Douglas, did not. m:…0312 m:…0524

For anyone allocating capital on the back of this quarter, the useful distinction is between volume and margin. LGI's rising deliveries with a narrowed closing guide, and Havertys' sales growth with a margin rescued by a tariff refund, both warn against reading volume as health. The consumer is still spending. Whether the companies selling to that consumer keep the profit is a separate question, and this quarter answered it differently by sector. m:…3850 m:…6211