Fed data: policy rates flat, Treasury yields ease, and bank loans outrun deposits

Policy rates sit still

The two policy-rate prints in the Federal Reserve data barely moved. Interest on reserve balances stood at 3.9% in the November 2, 2026 reading, with no change in any of the three most recent readings, dated October 31, November 1 and November 2, 2026. The federal funds effective rate stood at 3.88% on October 29, 2026, also unchanged from the previous day, October 28, 2026. The data describes the rate of change in both series as steady, with no clear momentum. m:…4545 m:…5714

Both rates sit above the comparison readings the data carries from February 2026: interest on reserve balances is 0.25 percentage points above the 3.65% reading dated February 23, 2026, and the federal funds effective rate is 0.24 points above the 3.64% reading dated February 19, 2026. The prints give no reason for the flat readings, and they do not, on their own, say anything about what comes next. m:…4545 m:…5714

Longer yields eased on October 29

Treasury yields moved the other way, slightly, on October 29, 2026. The 10-year yield stood at 4.98%, down 0.07 percentage points from 5.05% on October 28, 2026, after rising 0.06 points the day before. The 2-year yield stood at 4.61%, down 0.06 points from 4.67% on October 28, 2026, its second consecutive fall. The data describes both yields as decelerating, with moves getting smaller. m:…1229 m:…9954

The one-day easing leaves both yields well above their readings from a year earlier. The 10-year yield is 0.97 points above the 4.01% reading dated October 27, 2025, and the 2-year yield is 1.13 points above the 3.48% reading from the same date. On October 29, 2026, the 10-year yield stood 0.37 points above the 2-year yield, the simple difference between the two published readings. m:…1229 m:…9954

Balance sheets moved in opposite directions

The balance-sheet prints are older than the rate prints, dated October 21, 2026, and they point in opposite directions. Total deposits at commercial banks stood at 19,771.1 billion dollars, down 31.68 billion dollars, or 0.2%, from 19,802.8 billion dollars on October 14, 2026. That fall followed two weekly gains: deposits rose 69.93 billion dollars in the week to October 7, 2026, and 38.5 billion dollars in the week to October 14, 2026. Against a year earlier, deposits are 1,275.07 billion dollars above the 18,496.0 billion dollars recorded on October 22, 2025. m:…0709

Loans moved the other way. Total loans and leases at commercial banks stood at 14,217.6 billion dollars on October 21, 2026, up 13.2 billion dollars, or 0.1%, from 14,204.4 billion dollars on October 14, 2026, the seventh consecutive weekly rise. The gains are getting smaller: loans rose 33.43 billion dollars in the week to October 7, 2026, and 29.7 billion dollars in the week to October 14, 2026, before the 13.2 billion dollar rise. Against a year earlier, loans are 1,035.42 billion dollars above the 13,182.2 billion dollars recorded on October 22, 2025. m:…3055

What the prints do not say

Read together, the prints describe a quiet week for policy rates, a small easing in Treasury yields, and a balance sheet in which deposits slipped while lending kept growing, though more slowly. But the prints do not line up in time: the balance-sheet data is dated October 21, 2026, the yield and federal funds data October 29, 2026, and the interest-on-reserves reading November 2, 2026, so they are not a snapshot of a single day. None of the prints explains why deposits fell in the week to October 21, 2026, or why yields eased on October 29, 2026, and none of them says what either series does next. m:…4545 m:…1229 m:…5714 m:…0709 m:…3055