Kalshi, Ares and TPG show private markets scaling on two tracks

Kalshi's new scale

Kalshi raised 1 billion dollars in a Series G funding round, according to the company, at a post-money valuation of 40 billion dollars. The company reports over 30 million accounts and annualised trading volume exceeding 1 trillion dollars. m:…0260

The company says it accounts for over 75% of prediction market trading volume, with approximately 500 entities active on Kalshi in September. Entities excluding market makers represented approximately 25% of total exchange trading volume, according to the company, which suggests institutional participation is broadening beyond the market-making core. m:…0260

The volume is spread across categories. Crypto trading volume has reached 140 billion dollars annualised, according to the company, politics trading volume has reached over 8 billion dollars annualised, and the perpetual futures business reached 83 billion dollars in trading volume with over 500,000 traders. m:…0260

Commodities generated more than 100 million dollars in annualised trading fees in three months, according to the company. Kalshi plans to launch indices, single-stock perpetual futures and compute markets, is partnering with S&P to build indices on prediction markets, and is focusing international expansion on Latin America and Europe. m:…0260

Ares and TPG raise while deals stay slow

Ares Management reported total assets under management of 691 billion dollars in the third quarter of 2026, a 16% increase year on year, according to the company. Fee-paying assets under management increased 13% year on year to 416 billion dollars, and management fees grew 10% to 1.1 billion dollars, driven by deployment in European direct lending and alternative credit. m:…6176

Ares raised 31 billion dollars in gross capital during the third quarter, according to the company, and wealth management assets under management reached 82 billion dollars, a 41% increase year on year. Its quarterly dividend was increased by over 20% compared with the same quarter a year ago. m:…6176

TPG raised 15 billion dollars in the third quarter of 2026, according to the company, and 42 billion dollars year to date in 2026. The company expects to exceed its 50 billion dollar annual fundraising target for 2026. m:…6825

TPG holds a record 86 billion dollars of dry powder, according to the company, against 346 billion dollars of assets under management. It declared a quarterly dividend of 0.55 dollars per share of Class A common stock, with a record date of November 9, 2026 and payment on November 23, 2026. m:…6825

The tension underneath the fundraising

The fundraising strength sits alongside a slower deal environment. Ares says the slower transaction environment has delayed European-style waterfall payments for some funds by a year or more, and 83% of debt assets in its credit group are floating rate, according to the company. m:…6176

Ares puts the identified capital expenditure need for digital infrastructure and power generation at over 5 trillion dollars through 2030, according to the company, and expects its acquisition of MidCap Financial Investment Corporation to close in the first half of 2027. The pipeline is large; the timing of returns is not. m:…6176

Kalshi's expansion tells a parallel story. A platform that began with event contracts is moving into indices, single-stock perpetual futures and compute markets, and into Latin America and Europe. The question for both tracks is the same: whether scale in fundraising and volume converts into durable earnings once the current cycle of enthusiasm cools. m:…0260

For now, the numbers point one way. TPG's record dry powder and Ares' 31 billion dollars raised in a single quarter mean capital is available to deploy; Kalshi's trillion-dollar annualised volume means a new kind of exchange has reached a scale that can no longer be treated as a niche. What that capital and volume earn next is the open question for the fourth quarter. m:…6825 m:…6176