---
title: Kalshi, Ares and TPG show private markets scaling on two tracks
description: Kalshi raised 1 billion dollars at a 40 billion dollar valuation, Ares reported 691 billion dollars in assets, and TPG held a record 86 billion dollars of dry powder.
canonical: https://hangingcontext.com/stories/2026-10-30/private-markets-scale-kalshi-ares-tpg/
last-updated: 2026-10-30
url: https://hangingcontext.com/stories/2026-10-30/private-markets-scale-kalshi-ares-tpg/
published: 2026-10-30T12:29:56Z
edition: 2026-10-30T12
newsroom: finance-investing
beat: None
trust: confirmed
source_count: 3
cited_manifest_ids: ['1793310696987460260', '1793311901847536176', '1793289297135876825']
---

# Kalshi, Ares and TPG show private markets scaling on two tracks

*Kalshi raised 1 billion dollars at a 40 billion dollar valuation, Ares reported 691 billion dollars in assets, and TPG held a record 86 billion dollars of dry powder.*

Confirmed · 3 sources · Finance & Investing · Published 2026-10-30 12:29 UTC

## Key facts

- Kalshi raised 1 billion dollars in a Series G funding round at a 40 billion dollar post-money valuation, according to the company. (self-reported) [cites: 1793310696987460260]
- Kalshi's annualised trading volume exceeds 1 trillion dollars, accounting for over 75% of prediction market trading volume, according to the company. (self-reported) [cites: 1793310696987460260]
- Ares Management reported total assets under management of 691 billion dollars in the third quarter of 2026, up 16% year on year, according to the company. (self-reported) [cites: 1793311901847536176]
- TPG holds a record 86 billion dollars of dry powder and 346 billion dollars of assets under management, according to the company. (self-reported) [cites: 1793289297135876825]

## Kalshi's new scale

Kalshi raised 1 billion dollars in a Series G funding round, according to the company, at a post-money valuation of 40 billion dollars. The company reports over 30 million accounts and annualised trading volume exceeding 1 trillion dollars. [cites: 1793310696987460260]

The company says it accounts for over 75% of prediction market trading volume, with approximately 500 entities active on Kalshi in September. Entities excluding market makers represented approximately 25% of total exchange trading volume, according to the company, which suggests institutional participation is broadening beyond the market-making core. [cites: 1793310696987460260]

The volume is spread across categories. Crypto trading volume has reached 140 billion dollars annualised, according to the company, politics trading volume has reached over 8 billion dollars annualised, and the perpetual futures business reached 83 billion dollars in trading volume with over 500,000 traders. [cites: 1793310696987460260]

> **From Synorb** — Connect your agent over MCP. Add https://mcp.synorb.com/mcp to your agent, then call the tool synorb-get-demo-key if it has no key yet. It needs no email and no form. Keys are free for 72 hours, and new keys are limited per network. [How to connect](https://synorb.com/connect/start)


Commodities generated more than 100 million dollars in annualised trading fees in three months, according to the company. Kalshi plans to launch indices, single-stock perpetual futures and compute markets, is partnering with S&P to build indices on prediction markets, and is focusing international expansion on Latin America and Europe. [cites: 1793310696987460260]

## Ares and TPG raise while deals stay slow

Ares Management reported total assets under management of 691 billion dollars in the third quarter of 2026, a 16% increase year on year, according to the company. Fee-paying assets under management increased 13% year on year to 416 billion dollars, and management fees grew 10% to 1.1 billion dollars, driven by deployment in European direct lending and alternative credit. [cites: 1793311901847536176]

Ares raised 31 billion dollars in gross capital during the third quarter, according to the company, and wealth management assets under management reached 82 billion dollars, a 41% increase year on year. Its quarterly dividend was increased by over 20% compared with the same quarter a year ago. [cites: 1793311901847536176]

TPG raised 15 billion dollars in the third quarter of 2026, according to the company, and 42 billion dollars year to date in 2026. The company expects to exceed its 50 billion dollar annual fundraising target for 2026. [cites: 1793289297135876825]

TPG holds a record 86 billion dollars of dry powder, according to the company, against 346 billion dollars of assets under management. It declared a quarterly dividend of 0.55 dollars per share of Class A common stock, with a record date of November 9, 2026 and payment on November 23, 2026. [cites: 1793289297135876825]

## The tension underneath the fundraising

The fundraising strength sits alongside a slower deal environment. Ares says the slower transaction environment has delayed European-style waterfall payments for some funds by a year or more, and 83% of debt assets in its credit group are floating rate, according to the company. [cites: 1793311901847536176]

Ares puts the identified capital expenditure need for digital infrastructure and power generation at over 5 trillion dollars through 2030, according to the company, and expects its acquisition of MidCap Financial Investment Corporation to close in the first half of 2027. The pipeline is large; the timing of returns is not. [cites: 1793311901847536176]

Kalshi's expansion tells a parallel story. A platform that began with event contracts is moving into indices, single-stock perpetual futures and compute markets, and into Latin America and Europe. The question for both tracks is the same: whether scale in fundraising and volume converts into durable earnings once the current cycle of enthusiasm cools. [cites: 1793310696987460260]

For now, the numbers point one way. TPG's record dry powder and Ares' 31 billion dollars raised in a single quarter mean capital is available to deploy; Kalshi's trillion-dollar annualised volume means a new kind of exchange has reached a scale that can no longer be treated as a niche. What that capital and volume earn next is the open question for the fourth quarter. [cites: 1793289297135876825, 1793311901847536176]

## What is still unresolved

- Whether Kalshi's new products in indices, single-stock perpetual futures and compute markets reach material volume
- Whether Ares' delayed waterfall payments recover as the transaction environment improves
- How TPG deploys its record 86 billion dollars of dry powder

## Decision card

- **Useful for:** VCs and professionals tracking private-market scale and new exchange models; Bankers weighing how alternative platforms expand beyond their first product
- **Not for:** Anyone looking for a valuation judgement on Kalshi, Ares or TPG; Readers who need fourth-quarter fundraising results
- **Compare against:** Kalshi's annualised volume against Ares' and TPG's assets under management; TPG's dry powder against its fundraising pace

## Provenance ledger

| Manifest id | Title | Source | Claims used | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| `1793310696987460260` | Building the next-generation financial exchange: Kalshi raises $1 billion at a $40 billion valuation | [kalshi-announcements](https://news.kalshi.com/p/kalshi-series-g-40-billion-valuation) | 1793310939803075515, 1793310939807645471, 1793310939808997230, 1793310939811117667, 1793310939818646248, 1793310939814879458, 1793310939815706975, 1793310939817279425, 1793310939812474534, 1793310939820280926, 1793310939822740404, 1793310939823169451 | 10-29 00:00 |
| `1793311901847536176` | Ares (ARES) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript | [earnings-call-transcripts](https://fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/10/29/ares-ares-q3-2026-earnings-call-transcript) | 1793312195123596797, 1793312195128372373, 1793312195133961905, 1793312195144793689, 1793312195150002675, 1793312195143261590, 1793312195140313818, 1793312195136840071, 1793312195139785558 | 10-29 00:00 |
| `1793289297135876825` | News Release Details | [tpg-investor-news-releases](https://shareholders.tpg.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tpg-reports-third-quarter-2026-results) | 1793289571167826782, 1793289571174912497, 1793289571161103096, 1793289571164519960 | 10-29 00:00 |

## Run these Manifests yourself

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1. **Get a Synorb Key.** Click Generate Free Agent Key at https://synorb.com/connect/start, or let your agent make a key: MCP tool `synorb-get-demo-key` (no header needed), or REST `POST https://api.synorb.com/api/connect/demo-key` with a JSON body such as `{"client":"your-agent-name"}`. The key is the `api_key` field of the answer. Save the key. The 72 Hour Agent Demo key needs no email. It lasts 72 hours and can pull up to 25 Manifests. It includes 5 Beacons; all of them are starter Beacons.
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3. **Check the claim.** Match each sentence in the story to the claims in the Manifest it cites. The claim ids in the ledger point to them.

Cited Manifest ids:

- `1793310696987460260`
- `1793311901847536176`
- `1793289297135876825`

```sh
for id in 1793310696987460260 1793311901847536176 1793289297135876825; do
  curl -s -H "Authorization: Bearer $SYNORB_KEY" "https://api.synorb.com/manifests/by-id/$id"
done
```

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- [Venture Theses Converge on Security, Production and Expertise](https://hangingcontext.com/stories/2026-10-30/venture-thesis-security-production-expertise/)
- [Earnings Season Is Also Closing Season](https://hangingcontext.com/stories/2026-10-29/earnings-season-deal-closings/)

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---
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