Central Banks Turn to the Consumer: Expectations, Experience, and Fair Distribution

Euro-area households grow gloomier

The European Central Bank's September 2026 consumer expectations survey showed households expecting more inflation and less growth at the same time. Median perceived inflation over the previous 12 months rose to 3.6% in September from 3.5% in August, and median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months rose to 3.1% from 3.0%. Expectations three years ahead were unchanged at 2.9%, and five years ahead unchanged at 2.5%, so the near-term rise did not extend to the longer horizon. m:…9455

The growth outlook darkened more clearly. Expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months fell to -1.5% from -1.2% in August, and expectations for the unemployment rate 12 months ahead rose to 11.3% from 11.0%. Households still expected their own finances to improve slightly: expected nominal income growth rose to 1.1% from 1.0%, expected spending growth rose to 3.7% from 3.6%, and expected home-price growth rose to 3.5% from 3.4%. Expectations for mortgage rates in 12 months were unchanged at 4.9%, while the net share of households reporting tighter access to credit over the previous 12 months rose against August, and uncertainty about near-term inflation expectations increased slightly. m:…9455

Ireland makes experience a supervisory test

The Central Bank of Ireland is treating how firms treat customers as a supervisory priority in its own right, not as an afterthought to prudential work. Customer experience is one of its three priority areas of focus for consumer and investor protection, according to opening remarks by Patricia Dunne, the bank's Director of Horizontal Supervision. The bank's revised Consumer Protection Code is now in effect, and it requires firms to embed customer interests into their culture, strategy, business model, decision-making, and operations. m:…1448

The push follows a two-year program reviewing customer experience across all retail sectors, using the bank's Consumer Insights Model and social media monitoring to gather data. Consumers reported problems with accessibility, inclusion, transparency, and support for people in vulnerable circumstances. The bank's supervisory work found firms that failed to log expressions of dissatisfaction as formal complaints, firms whose inadequate root-cause analysis let systemic issues recur, and firms that prioritized process compliance over the actual quality of the customer experience. Firms must provide accessible communication channels and a robust complaint-handling process, and the bank said customer service is a fundamental obligation and a foundation of consumer protection. It also plans to share more information on its Consumer Hub to help consumers understand their rights, and to keep evolving its supervisory approach for risks from digitalization and artificial intelligence. m:…1448

Brazil proposes best-interest distribution rules

The Central Bank of Brazil put a proposal for a joint resolution on the distribution of financial funding products under public consultation. The proposal aims to align the economic incentives of distributing institutions with the best interest of the consumer, and it would require distributors to assess whether a product suits the customer's profile, to disclose information on products, risks, costs, and potential conflicts of interest, and to adopt best-interest and distribution policies. It would also require stronger governance structures, expanded disclosure to customers and to the central bank, and requirements covering remuneration, monitoring, and supervision. m:…5672

The timetable gives the industry a long runway. If approved, the regulation would enter into force on January 1, 2028, existing contracts would have to be adapted by June 30, 2028, and contributions to Public Consultation 131/2026 may be submitted until January 24, 2027. For banks and distributors, the message of the week is consistent across all three central banks: the consumer's experience and expectations are now part of the supervisory conversation, not separate from it. m:…5672