Russia holds at 14% as Mexico and India report inflation still above comfort

The hold in Moscow

The Bank of Russia decided on October 23, 2026, to keep its key rate at 14.00% per annum, and Governor Elvira Nabiullina's statement the same day put the same decision at 14% per annum. The bank's own account of the decision is not a story about inflation beaten. Annual inflation stood at 6.8% as of October 19, underlying price growth remains in the range of 5 to 6% in annualised terms, and the bank says high inflation expectations are currently impeding a slowdown in inflation. That combination explains a hold better than any single number: prices are still rising too fast, and households and firms still expect them to keep rising. m:…8757

The forward guidance points the same way. The bank expects the key rate to average 12.5 to 13.5% per annum in 2027, expects annual inflation to return to 4.0% in 2027, and says proinflationary risks currently prevail over disinflationary ones on the medium-term horizon. Nabiullina's statement adds that the bank expects current price growth rates to return to 4% within the first half of 2027, while putting inflation in 2026 at 7.1 to 7.6%. The timetable matters for anyone modelling Russian rates: the bank is describing a slow glide back to target across 2027, not a cut cycle starting now. m:…8757 m:…1035

The rest of the bank's picture is mixed in a way that argues against rushing. Labor market tightness is gradually easing, wage growth is slowing but remains significantly higher than labor productivity growth, and the bank updated its 2026 GDP growth estimate to 0.5 to 1.0%. It also raised its 2026 lending growth forecast to 8 to 11% and its money supply growth forecast to 10 to 13%, and it expects fiscal policy to help slow inflation on the medium-term horizon. The next decision meeting is scheduled for December 18, 2026, with a summary of the key rate discussion due November 5. Until then, the hold is the policy. m:…8757 m:…1035

Mexico and India, same pressure

Banco de Mexico's review of the Mexican economy puts headline inflation at 3.62% in the first quarter of October 2026 and core inflation at 3.78% in the same period. The bank has maintained a permanent inflation target of 3% since 2003, and its own history shows the average of general inflation from 2003 to 2019 was 4.2%. In other words, Mexico is closer to target than Russia, but still above it on both measures, and the overshoot is not a rounding error. For a banker pricing Mexican exposure, the relevant fact is that the target is a long-standing anchor and current readings sit above it. m:…2012 m:…6172

India's Reserve Bank bulletin reports that headline CPI inflation increased in September, and attributes amplified inflationary pressures to renewed geopolitical frictions in West Asia and to supply chain disruptions. The bulletin also notes that major central banks have raised policy rates in response to inflationary pressures. The Indian picture otherwise shows some offsetting strength: merchandise exports grew by double digits during the first six months of 2026-27, which helped narrow the trade deficit, and foreign direct investment, external commercial borrowing and remittance flows strengthened in August. Price pressure and external resilience are arriving together, which is why a single inflation print should not be read as a verdict on the whole economy. m:…4018

The transmission detail in the Indian bulletin is worth noting for lenders. In response to a cumulative reduction of 125 basis points in the policy repo rate between February 2025 and March 2026, the weighted average lending rate on fresh lending declined by 93 basis points, with an interest rate effect of 80 basis points and a composition effect of 13 basis points. The non-bank financial sector registered double-digit year-on-year credit growth at end-December 2025, and its non-performing asset ratios have consistently declined in recent years. This suggests rate cuts do reach borrowers, but with a lag and a haircut, and that credit quality in the non-bank sector has not deteriorated while lending grew. That is the kind of plumbing detail that matters more than the headline rate when underwriting. m:…4018

What to watch

Put together, these three central banks are telling a consistent story, and it is not that inflation is over. Russia is holding a high rate while forecasting a slow return to 4% during 2027. Mexico is reporting inflation above its long-standing 3% target. India is reporting a September rise in headline inflation linked to geopolitical frictions and supply disruptions. The implication for bankers is straightforward: do not price in rapid easing in these markets on the basis of one soft print elsewhere, and watch expectations, not just spot inflation, since Russia explicitly names high expectations as the obstacle. The next dated markers are concrete: the Bank of Russia's discussion summary on November 5 and its December 18 meeting, and Mexico's continued readings against its 3% target. m:…8757 m:…6172