Midseason in the NFL: one division race has flipped, another is upside down

The AFC North has flipped

The middle of the NFL season has produced a division race that looks nothing like the one expected in September. The Cincinnati Bengals and the Pittsburgh Steelers are tied for first place in the AFC North with 6-2 records, and Cincinnati is on a four-game winning streak after beating the Atlanta Falcons 34-17 in Madrid. Joe Burrow completed 24 of 29 passes for 271 yards and three touchdowns in that game, becoming the fifth player in NFL history with at least four passing or rushing touchdowns in four straight games. He now leads the NFL in passer rating, touchdown passes and passing yards per game, with a completion percentage of 74.0 percent, and the Bengals are ranked as the league's third-best pass blockers by Pro Football Focus. m:…7591 m:…4099

The team around Burrow is doing its part. Right tackle Amarius Mims allowed zero pressures against Atlanta, the Bengals converted 52.9 percent of third downs, and they pressured Falcons quarterback Michael Penix Jr. 22 times. The Bengals have now won three of their last four prime-time road games. The Bengals now head into a prime-time game against the Steelers at Paycor Stadium, with the division lead effectively on the line. m:…4099 m:…7591

Baltimore is starting over at 4-5

The team at the bottom of that same division is the one that makes the race so strange. The Ravens are 4-5 and in last place in the AFC North, having lost four straight games without scoring 14 points in any of them. Their playoff chances are estimated at 3 percent by ESPN, 10 percent by The Athletic and 16 percent by NFL.com analytics, a spread that says more about how uncertain the models are than about the team. Head coach Jesse Minter is implementing a team-wide reset to address mental and physical performance, and he will continue to call the defensive plays himself. m:…7592 m:…2320

The reset starts at quarterback. Jacoby Brissett will start for the Ravens on Monday night against the Chargers, after the team acquired the veteran ahead of the trade deadline. Lamar Jackson is on injured reserve with a fractured and dislocated thumb, carrying a six- to nine-week recovery timeline. The Ravens are not in seller's mode at the trade deadline, according to the team's own audio review, and the schedule gives the reset a chance: their next four opponents have a combined record of 9-24, and they have the 11th easiest remaining strength of schedule in the NFL. Kyle Hamilton's hip injury is not expected to cause him to miss time, which at least keeps the defense intact while the offense changes hands. m:…2320 m:…7592

Elsewhere, the standings are upside down

The rest of the league is full of the same kind of inversion. The San Francisco 49ers improved to 7-1 after a 38-17 win over the Las Vegas Raiders, with their defense recording five second-half takeaways, and they did it while managing injuries: defensive lineman Gracen Halton suffered a fractured and dislocated ankle and will be placed on injured reserve, while defensive lineman C.J. West and wide receiver Deebo Samuel Sr. are expected to return to practice on Wednesday. The New Orleans Saints hold a 3-5 record and are still tied for first place in the NFC South with the Carolina Panthers, with the Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 3-6. A losing record leading a division is the clearest sign of how weak that division has been, and the Saints traded defensive lineman Davon Godchaux to Jacksonville anyway, a move the team says was made possible in part by the increased role of Khristian Boyd. m:…9493 m:…2039

Dallas and Los Angeles show the two sides of a midseason coin. The Cowboys beat the Indianapolis Colts 27-23 for a 4-5 record, behind a season-high 508 total yards, Dak Prescott throwing for a season-high-tying 335 yards and CeeDee Lamb recording 10 receptions for 195 yards and one touchdown. The win kept their playoff hopes alive in an NFC East led by the New York Giants at 5-2-1, though it came with a missed 50-yard field goal from Brandon Aubrey and a 15-yard unsportsmanlike conduct penalty after an inactive player entered the field to celebrate. The Chargers, who visit Baltimore on Monday night, are 0-8 heading into Week 10. Quarterback Herbert is cleared to play after negative X-rays on his finger, but he was sacked a career-high eight times in the Week 9 loss, the defense allowed 485 yards to the Houston Texans, and wide receiver Ladd McConkey is day-to-day with back spasms. m:…0693 m:…8700

What the middle of the season is saying

The pattern across these teams is that the standings now reward health and depth more than preseason expectations. Cincinnati is winning because its quarterback is protected and its defense is creating pressure; Baltimore is losing because its quarterback is on injured reserve and its offense has not scored 14 points in four straight games. San Francisco is 7-1 despite losing a defensive lineman to a serious ankle injury, because the defense took the ball away five times in one half. New Orleans is tied for first at 3-5, which says nothing good about the Saints and plenty about the division they play in. The second half of the season will test whether the teams at the top can stay healthy and whether the teams at the bottom can use a soft schedule to climb back. For Baltimore, the test starts Monday night, with a backup quarterback, a reset from the head coach and a playoff probability that no model puts above 16 percent. m:…4099 m:…7592 m:…9493 m:…2039 m:…2320