Ten games in, the NBA has already split in two

The split, ten games in

Ten games into the NBA season, the league has already split in two. The San Antonio Spurs have won nine consecutive games, capped by a win over the Phoenix Suns in which Victor Wembanyama scored 40 points and grabbed 11 rebounds, with Dylan Harper scoring 14 points in the third quarter. At the other end, Milwaukee owns the fourth-worst offense and the third-worst defense in the league, and Brooklyn's bench is significantly underperforming. The middle is crowded, but the edges of the standings are already telling a clear story about which teams have a working plan and which ones are still looking for one. m:…4563 m:…6689 m:…1873

The Suns sit in that middle, at 4-6, and their loss to San Antonio showed why. Devin Booker has played at a high level for four to five consecutive games, according to the Phoenix podcast that reviewed the defeat, but the Suns lack a consistent secondary scorer to support him, and the hosts argued the roster is a worse matchup against San Antonio than last season's team was. Dallas offers the contrast: Cooper Flagg and Kyrie Irving combined for 78 points in the Mavericks' win over the Indiana Pacers, and Dallas is 7-2 this season when Irving plays. m:…1770 m:…4602

Why San Antonio works

The Spurs are not winning on one player's scoring alone, though Wembanyama's 40-point, 11-rebound game against Phoenix is the headline. Their starting five is the best five-man lineup in the NBA among lineups with at least 75 minutes played, and the hosts who track the team credit Devin Vassell playing the four position as a primary reason the three-guard lineup works. Wembanyama's ability to recover from ankle injuries is a result of long-term flexibility training, the hosts say. The one limit is shooting: the Spurs are not a top-tier three-point shooting team, but they are likely to finish in the middle of the pack. m:…9282 m:…4563

Even the injury news has not slowed them. Vassell is out with an adductor injury and is listed as day-to-day, missing the Phoenix game with adductor tightness, and the Spurs still won by a wide margin. The next test named in the Spurs' own review is a road game against Chicago, a team listed at 1-8. San Antonio's streak is built on a lineup, not a hot shooting week. m:…4563 m:…9282

The bottom of the standings

Milwaukee's problems are comprehensive. The Bucks have the fourth-worst offense in the league with a 106.5 rating and the third-worst defense with a 119.6 rating, they rank 24th in rebounding rate, and they have been losing the possession battle by an average of 13 true shot attempts per game over the last three games. Turner is shooting 26 percent from three-point range, and the one bright spot the hosts could name is Ryan Rollins, the team's most impactful player by net rating, with Milwaukee performing 16 points per 100 possessions better when he is on the floor. m:…6689

Brooklyn's diagnosis is different, and in some ways harder. The Nets' bench is significantly underperforming, with players such as Mo Wagner and Noah Clowney showing negative net rating impacts, and the hosts concluded that the roster's lack of two-way players is the root cause rather than coach Jordi Fernandez's rotations, which they called questionable but not the primary problem. The center rotation of De'Ron Sharp and Mo Wagner is not viewed as a viable long-term solution, the team's 2025 and 2026 draft classes lack sufficient two-way players and physical force, and the Nets are unlikely to trade a first-round pick to acquire a center during the current season. General manager Sean Marks' job is considered stable because ownership has not signaled any intent to replace him, which means the rebuild is expected to run its course rather than be interrupted. m:…1873

The teams in between

Miami is the most interesting case in the middle, because the underlying numbers point the other way from the record. The Heat rank 19th in offensive rating, but they rank sixth in the league in expected field goal percentage allowed, eighth in turnover percentage forced and ninth in defensive rebounding rate. Coach Erik Spoelstra has shifted the defense from a drop scheme to a switch-everything scheme, and Miami currently ranks last in the league in pick-and-roll frequency. The Knicks have a different early signal: Karl-Anthony Towns is described by the Knicks podcast as playing like a top-five player in the NBA, shooting 44 percent from three-point range, leading the league in defensive rebounding percentage, and posting a plus-12.9 net rating when paired with Tyler Kolek. m:…3692 m:…1803

The implication for anyone following the season is to trust the shape of the evidence, not just the standings. Ten games is a small sample, and Miami's numbers suggest a team that could climb, while Milwaukee's suggest one that could sink further. But San Antonio's case is the strongest of all, because it rests on a lineup that leads the league, a star producing 40-point games, and a supporting cast that keeps winning when a starter is out. The Bucks and Nets, by contrast, are waiting on a fix that neither team's own review can yet name. That gap, more than any single result, is what the first ten games have established. m:…9282 m:…6689 m:…3692