The builders' order books are doing the talking: record awards, bigger capital plans
Fluor booked $10.9 billion in a quarter. Sempra's utility is raising its capital plan by a fifth. The demand is booked years ahead.
- Fluor says it achieved record quarterly new awards of $10.9 billion in Q3 2026, including $7.5 billion for Phase 2 of LNG Canada, and its backlog rose 21% year over year to $34.3 billion. Self-reported m:…4328
- Sempra says its Oncor unit projects its 2027-2031 base capital plan will increase by about 20% relative to its 2026-2030 plan, and its businesses invested about $10 billion in capital in the first nine months of 2026. Self-reported m:…0334
- MDU Resources says its board approved the Bakken East Pipeline project on September 30, 2026, with estimated capital investment of $2.8 billion to $3.1 billion. Self-reported m:…9582
- Castellum says its qualified opportunity pipeline increased to about $1.66 billion as of September 30, 2026, with total scheduled backlog of $254.5 million. Self-reported m:…0093
- Oncor set a new all-time system peak demand record of 33.3 gigawatts in the third quarter of 2026, Sempra says. Self-reported m:…0334
The order books
Fluor's third quarter was a backlog story before it was an earnings story. The company says it achieved record quarterly new awards of $10.9 billion, including $7.5 billion for Phase 2 of LNG Canada, and its backlog increased 21% year over year to $34.3 billion. Revenue was $3.7 billion, a 10% increase year over year, and GAAP net earnings were $158 million, against a net loss of $697 million in the third quarter of 2025. The company also recognized a $73 million pre-tax gain on the sale of its interest in ICA-Fluor. m:…4328
Fluor affirmed its 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $500 million to $525 million, and repurchased $300 million of its shares in the quarter, $1.1 billion year to date. Its Mission Solutions segment secured a six-month extension of the Savannah River Department of Energy contract. The awards number is the one to watch: $10.9 billion of new work in a single quarter, most of it one LNG project, is a bet by a customer on demand years into the future, and Fluor's backlog is now the size of roughly nine quarters of current revenue. m:…4328
The power buildout inside the backlog
Sempra's version of the same story is written in capital plans rather than awards. The company says its Oncor unit projects its 2027-2031 base capital plan to increase by about 20% relative to its 2026-2030 base capital plan, and its businesses invested about $10 billion in capital during the first nine months of 2026. Oncor set a new all-time system peak demand record of 33.3 gigawatts in the third quarter. Third-quarter GAAP earnings were $877 million, or $1.34 per diluted share, and adjusted earnings were $917 million, or $1.40 per share. m:…0334
Sempra also says the sale of a 45% equity interest in Sempra Infrastructure Partners to affiliates of KKR is expected to close in the next two weeks, and it expects to finalize and announce its 2027-2031 capital plan on the fourth-quarter earnings call in February 2027. The Public Utility Commission of Texas approved segments of Import Path 1 of the Permian Basin Reliability Plan in August 2026. A utility raising its five-year capital plan by a fifth while selling down a stake in its infrastructure arm is raising money for the grid, not for the sake of it. m:…0334
MDU Resources adds the pipeline leg. Its board approved the Bakken East Pipeline project on September 30, 2026, with estimated capital investment of $2.8 billion to $3.1 billion, expected to be placed in service in two phases with completion in late 2029 and late 2030. The company's consolidated net income was $14.0 million for the quarter, or $0.07 per diluted share, and it reaffirmed 2026 earnings guidance of $0.93 to $1.00 per share. Its electric utility segment earned $26.5 million in the quarter, a 23.6% increase from the prior year, and total retail electric sales increased 9.3%. m:…9582
What is not in the numbers
Backlogs are promises, not revenue, and the small print this week is worth reading. Castellum, a much smaller contractor, says its qualified opportunity pipeline increased to about $1.66 billion as of September 30, 2026, with total scheduled backlog of $254.5 million — but it reported third-quarter revenue of only $14.7 million and a net loss of $0.5 million. It expects to recognize about 25% of remaining performance obligations within 12 months, says gross profit was limited by a higher mix of subcontractor work, and is prioritizing mergers and acquisitions as a key strategy for growth. It generated $1.1 million in operating cash flow through the first nine months of 2026 and had no long-term debt as of September 30. A $32.8 million NAVAIR contract modification for its Global Technology and Management Resources unit arrived in August. The pipeline is large; the conversion is slow. m:…0093
Fluor itself flags a limit: the company says it is unable to provide forward-looking guidance for U.S. GAAP net earnings or earnings per share because of the difficulty of predicting all the components required for reconciliation. Sempra notes that California regulators issued a proposed decision denying its SoCalGas and San Diego Gas & Electric units' request to correct the 2024 general rate base capital attrition mechanism. MDU discontinued development of its Knott Landfill renewable natural gas project. The demand is real and it is booked. Whether it converts into earnings on the schedule these companies assume is the question the next few quarters will answer. m:…4328 m:…0334 m:…9582
What is still unresolved
- How much of Fluor's $34.3 billion backlog converts to revenue, and on what schedule, since the filing gives the total but not the timing.
- What Sempra's finalized 2027-2031 capital plan looks like when it is announced on the fourth-quarter earnings call in February 2027.
- Whether Castellum's $1.66 billion pipeline converts at a better margin than its current subcontractor-heavy mix allows.
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