Bond markets are bracing for a rough start to 2027

The three drivers

ING's 2027 rates outlook rests on three drivers for long-end interest rates: AI-driven productivity gains, persistent fiscal deficits, and inflationary pressures stemming from ongoing global conflicts. The firm's analysts expect inflationary pressures to moderate by the middle of 2027, which is the hinge the whole outlook turns on: if inflation eases on schedule, the second half of the year looks better than the first. m:…8183

A companion piece from the same team describes a challenging first quarter of 2027 for global bond markets, driven by the interplay of AI-driven productivity, persistent fiscal deficits and inflationary risks. US Treasury yields are expected to rise initially and then decline as inflation moderates and central banks pivot, while European and UK markets face distinct pressures from fiscal consolidation needs and delayed inflation targets respectively. The shape of the forecast is a hump, not a trend: up first, down later. m:…4491

For the United States, ING expects 10-year Treasury yields to face upward pressure through the first quarter of 2027, potentially reaching 5.25 to 5.5 percent, as AI-driven productivity, elevated fiscal deficits and sticky inflation combine to lift real yields. The firm anticipates a potential reversal later in 2027 as inflation moderates and the market begins pricing in Federal Reserve rate cuts, and notes that a material reduction in long-end Treasury issuance remains a key potential constraint on how far yields rise. Supply, in other words, could do what policy does not. m:…5424

Europe: volatility first, calm later

ING forecasts a volatile 2027 for euro rates, with significant near-term upside risks followed by a more constructive year-end outlook. The firm expects the ECB terminal rate to anchor near 2.5 percent by the end of 2027, though persistent inflation and global bond supply pressures may keep long-dated rates elevated. The terminal rate and the long end are telling different stories: policy may settle while market rates stay high. m:…8182

Eurozone government bond markets are already showing that volatility, with fiscal strains and political risks centered on France dominating the narrative. German Bunds have temporarily benefited from safe-haven demand, but structural supply increases and domestic political instability point to a turbulent first half of 2027. The European Central Bank remains cautious, preferring to let market mechanisms address fiscal issues rather than intervening directly, which leaves spreads to do the adjusting. m:…5936

One near-term data point could reinforce the hawkish side of that story. ING's rates note observes that Eurozone headline inflation is projected to rise to 4 percent, reinforcing expectations for a December ECB rate hike, even as a decisive US election result is expected to provide market stability by avoiding gridlock and contested outcomes. Investors face ongoing uncertainty over stricter AI regulation and foreign-policy-driven inflation risks, so political clarity in one market does not remove inflation risk in another. m:…9328

Sterling: high now, lower later

Sterling rates are currently trading above Bank of England expectations, driven by a risk premium left over from past volatility. ING expects rates to trend lower throughout 2027 as inflation pressures ease and US rates decline, but structural supply factors and global market volatility will likely keep the sterling curve steeper than anticipated. The direction is down; the shape stays steep. m:…8696

The regional cross-checks

New Zealand's labour market is already giving central bankers the softer data the 2027 outlook assumes will arrive. The unemployment rate rose to 5.7 percent in the September 2026 quarter, employment growth remains weak and is failing to keep pace with population growth, and wage growth stays muted because workers have limited leverage. The results were weaker than the Reserve Bank of New Zealand expected, reinforcing a cautious outlook on inflation pressures. Westpac's read of the same data keeps a December interest rate hike as the base case but notes the debate between hawkish and dovish members of the Monetary Policy Committee, with the peak for the official cash rate largely intact but the timeline for reaching it more flexible. m:…1044 m:…1037

Türkiye points the other way. Headline inflation reached 29.8 percent in October 2026, exceeding consensus expectations on rising food and energy costs, while core inflation indicators showed slight improvement supported by soft domestic demand. BBVA Research maintained its 30 percent year-end inflation forecast and anticipates that the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye will pause rate changes at its December meeting. Volatile headline, steady core: the same split that makes the global outlook hard to call. m:…4864

The Gulf adds a third regional signal. Non-oil private sector activity in the UAE and Saudi Arabia expanded in October but headline purchasing managers' readings softened compared with September, while Egypt's PMI remained unchanged at 47.2, marking ten consecutive months of contraction, with regional conflict weighing on trade and input costs across the Middle East. Expansion that is losing momentum, contraction that is not ending, and sticky inflation elsewhere: the regional data supports ING's hump-shaped forecast, but it also shows how many ways the timing could slip. m:…6476