Positioning Into Decision Day: Dollar Firm, Rate Views Split
ING reported the dollar benefiting as fears of an artificial intelligence bust receded, Scotiabank saw upside risk for the Canadian dollar into the Bank of Canada meeting, and ING put the United States 10-year yield near 5 percent with gold back above 4,000 dollars an ounce.
- ING reported fears of an artificial intelligence bust receding slightly, and Westpac reported the United States dollar strengthened on pre-FOMC positioning. m:…1195 m:…5423
- Scotiabank analysts saw Canadian dollar risk tilted to the upside heading into the Bank of Canada and Federal Reserve meetings, with short-term rates markets pricing 20 basis points of tightening for the Bank of Canada meeting and 2 basis points for the Federal Reserve meeting. m:…5915
- ING analysts expected the Federal Reserve to leave interest rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting, with the United States 10-year Treasury yield clinging to the 4.99 percent level and expected to move back above 5 percent. m:…4476
- Brent oil traded around 114 dollars per barrel, gold climbed back above 4,000 dollars per ounce, and iron ore prices fell to their lowest level in more than two years, according to ING commodities analysis. m:…6767
A firmer dollar as AI fear eases
The dollar entered decision day with support from two directions. ING reported that fears of an artificial intelligence bust have receded slightly, shifting market focus back to macroeconomic drivers such as inflation and central bank policy, and Westpac reported that the United States dollar strengthened on pre-FOMC positioning. Westpac also reported that global equities were generally stronger and that artificial intelligence-related stocks supported gains in the United States and tech-heavy Asian markets. m:…1195 m:…5423
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision was the first data point of the day. ING reported that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand voted 4-3 to hold interest rates and that the New Zealand dollar fell 1.6 percent following the decision. Westpac morning report listed Australian consumer price data and policy decisions from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the Bank of Canada and the Federal Open Market Committee as due on the same day, with the Australian dollar outperforming most major currencies and gaining against the United States dollar. m:…1195 m:…5423
Europe added its own pressure on the euro. ING reported that the euro faced pressure from broad dollar strength and an unresolved French budget crisis, while the Federal Open Market Committee meeting was expected to focus on restoring monetary stability. The combination left the dollar as the beneficiary of calmer technology sentiment and unresolved European fiscal questions at the same time. m:…1195
The loonie trade splits the houses
Canada is where dealer views diverge most clearly. Scotiabank analysts anticipated near-term upside risk for the Canadian dollar ahead of the Bank of Canada and Federal Reserve meetings, noting that the Canadian dollar had gained 1.6 percent from its October 12 closing low. Scotiabank put the fair value estimate for the United States dollar against the Canadian dollar at just above 1.40, with limited support for the pair ahead of the 1.3900 to 1.3920 area. m:…5915
The pricing behind that view is specific. Scotiabank reported that short-term rates markets are pricing 20 basis points of tightening for the Bank of Canada meeting and 2 basis points of tightening for the Federal Reserve meeting, with the two-year United States-Canada yield spread just below 140 basis points. m:…5915
ING read the same meeting differently. ING reported that the Bank of Canada is expected to wait until December for its first rate hike, even as markets priced a 20 basis point hike for the Bank of Canada on the day. The disagreement is the point for professionals: one house emphasised positioning and a hawkish stance, the other emphasised timing, and both agreed the meeting itself was the catalyst. m:…1195
Rates and commodities wait for the same meeting
Rates pricing was comparatively quiet into the meeting. ING analysts expected the Federal Reserve to maintain current interest rates at the upcoming meeting, with the United States 10-year Treasury yield clinging to the 4.99 percent level as a comfort level and expected to move back above 5 percent on inflation, fiscal deficits and artificial intelligence boom impulses. ING also estimated that the United Kingdom 10-year gilt yield contains a political risk premium of approximately 20 basis points. m:…4476
Westpac morning report captured the waiting mood: United States and Australian government bond yields were little changed ahead of the day data, oil prices eased on hopes diplomacy could avert renewed escalation in the United States-Iran conflict, and markets assigned a 7 percent probability to a Federal Open Market Committee hike on the day. The low priced probability of a hike sat alongside ING expectation of unchanged rates, leaving the meeting as a test of communication rather than action. m:…5423
Commodities reflected the same wait-and-see stance. ING reported Brent oil trading around 114 dollars per barrel, gold climbing back above 4,000 dollars per ounce ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting, and iron ore prices falling to their lowest level in more than two years. United States crude oil inventories fell by about 2 million barrels last week while gasoline inventories rose by 2.3 million barrels, and ING reported the oil market pricing in a greater likelihood of re-escalation in the Middle East. Gold strength, oil elevation and iron ore weakness together describe a market hedging geopolitical risk while doubting industrial demand. m:…6767
What is still unresolved
- Whether the Bank of Canada tightens at its 28 October meeting as short-term rates markets price, or waits until December as ING expects.
- Whether the Federal Reserve communicates a path consistent with unchanged rates at its 28 October meeting.
- Whether gilt yields fall after the United Kingdom Autumn Budget as ING anticipates, or whether political risk premiums persist.
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