Four corners of the infection map: malaria panels, encephalitis wetlands, Ebola immunity, viral duels
From Thai malaria panels to Congolese antibody baselines, four preprints measure infections where they happen: in the field, in wetlands, in blood, and between viruses.
- A targeted nanopore amplicon panel for P. knowlesi preserved large- and small-scale population structure; Thai infections showed mean expected heterozygosity of 0.69, with 46 of 253 pairs at or above 0.5 relatedness. Self-reported m:…9204
- In Australia from 2021 to 2023, Japanese encephalitis was identified in 45 people and more than 85 piggeries; floodplain wetlands in the north and inland east showed the highest estimated transmission suitability and strongest circulation evidence. Self-reported m:…5134
- One year after the Ad26.ZEBOV/MVA-BN-Filo boost, EBOV GP seroreactivity reached 66.8%, with no substantial SUDV or MARV lift; 48.7% of participants were already seroreactive to at least one filovirus antigen at baseline, and 31.1% to BDBV GP despite no documented regional outbreaks. Self-reported m:…5619
- Recent rhinovirus illness lowered short-term risk of coronavirus, parainfluenza, and RSV (aHRs 0.07 to 0.27), while SARS-CoV-2 raised subsequent adenovirus and parainfluenza risk (aHRs 3.20 to 3.33); in children under 5, recent flu raised short-term SARS-CoV-2 risk. Self-reported m:…5798
A field panel for a zoonotic malaria
In Thailand, a zoonotic malaria is getting a field-ready identity check. In a preprint, da Silva and colleagues built a targeted nanopore amplicon-sequencing panel for Plasmodium knowlesi aimed at determining the origin and zoonotic host species of infections. The panel preserved the parasite's large- and small-scale population genetic structure, and in Thai infections the mean expected heterozygosity was 0.69 across 23 samples. m:…9204
The detail worth pausing on: pairwise identity-by-descent analysis found substantial recent relatedness, with 46 of 253 pairs at or above 0.5 relatedness. That is the kind of signal a surveillance program can act on. Relatedness at that scale says something about how recently these infections shared ancestors, which is exactly what you want to know when a zoonotic spillover might be turning into sustained transmission. m:…9204
For a zoonotic parasite, origin matters operationally. Knowing whether a cluster of knowlesi cases shares a recent common ancestor or reflects independent spillovers decides whether you hunt a transmission chain or the forest edge. A nanopore panel that preserves this structure, and runs far from a sequencing center, is what puts that distinction in a field team's hands. m:…9204
Wetlands and antibodies
In Australia, the map got sharper for Japanese encephalitis. In a preprint by Harrison, a geospatial assessment found 45 human infections and more than 85 piggery detections across 2021 to 2023, with floodplain wetlands in the north and the inland east showing both the highest estimated environmental suitability for transmission and the strongest evidence of virus circulation. Risk, in other words, has an address. m:…5134
In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the question was what the Ad26.ZEBOV/MVA-BN-Filo vaccine actually left behind in blood. In a preprint by Wallace and Rimoin, EBOV GP seroreactivity reached 66.8% one year after the vaccine boost, but there were no substantial increases against SUDV or MARV antigens despite booster inclusion, so cross-protection is not the story. Two baselines complicate the picture: 48.7% of participants were already seroreactive to at least one filovirus antigen before vaccination, and 31.1% were seroreactive to BDBV GP despite no documented outbreaks in the region. That is background immunity a vaccine study has to read through. m:…5619
The 31.1% BDBV baseline figure is the one to watch. Bundibugyo virus has no documented outbreaks in the region, so a third of participants arriving seroreactive to its glycoprotein is either a lot of unrecorded exposure or a lot of cross-reactivity. Either answer changes how you read the 66.8% post-boost number, and the authors' longitudinal design is exactly what is needed to separate vaccine signal from background noise. m:…5619
Viruses interfering with viruses
In a US prospective cohort with weekly swabs from 2022 to 2024, recent human rhinovirus illness within the prior two weeks was associated with a lower risk of subsequent human coronavirus, parainfluenza, and RSV illness, with adjusted hazard ratios from 0.07 to 0.27. Viral interference, apparently, is real in the wild. m:…5798
The reverse direction ran the other way. SARS-CoV-2 illness was associated with a higher short-term risk of subsequent adenovirus and parainfluenza illness, with adjusted hazard ratios of 3.20 to 3.33, and in children aged 6 months to 4 years, recent influenza illness was associated with a higher short-term risk of SARS-CoV-2. The pattern is asymmetric: one infection can apparently block the next or roll out the red carpet, and the direction depends on the pairing. m:…5798
The asymmetry is the scientific payoff. A rhinovirus cold appears to leave the airway temporarily inhospitable to the next virus, while SARS-CoV-2 apparently leaves it more vulnerable. Cohort studies with weekly swabs are expensive, but this is the dividend: population-level circulation patterns are not just epidemiology, they are the aggregate of millions of these within-host duels. m:…5798
What is still unresolved
- Can the knowlesi panel distinguish spillover from sustained transmission at operational scale, or only in retrospect?
- How much of the DRC baseline filovirus seroreactivity reflects true prior exposure versus assay cross-reactivity?
- Do the viral-interference patterns persist across seasons, or are they artifacts of the 2022-2024 circulation mix?
- Will Australia's JE hotspots stay stable under changing floodplain hydrology?
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