Central banks want to know what you expect
In 48 hours, three central banks made expectations-measuring public infrastructure: Denmark began monthly publication of household expectations, Paraguay released its October survey round, and Dallas published a jobs forecast tying slower growth to immigration. Policy now starts with observation.
- Danmarks Nationalbank's Expectations Survey (NFU) provides monthly, forward-looking evidence on Danish household views, has been conducted since October 2024, and will have its aggregate statistics published monthly starting in October 2026. m:…1474
- The NFU covers household expectations for inflation, income, interest rates, spending, housing, and labor markets; the bank says expectations in these areas are focal to central bank mandates because they affect real economic outcomes. m:…1474
- The Central Bank of Paraguay's October 2026 survey reports a median inflation expectation of 3.0% for end-2026 and 3.5% for end-2027, GDP growth of 4.5% for end-2026, and a monetary rate expectation of 5.50% for October 2026. m:…8096
- The Dallas Fed's Texas Employment Forecast projects jobs will increase 0.9% in 2026 — about 134,000 jobs — even as September employment fell an annualized 1.6%; the moderation is described as consistent with labor-supply constraints partly resulting from lower immigration. m:…5102
Denmark makes expectations a publication
Danmarks Nationalbank published a staff paper on October 20 setting out its Expectations Survey (NFU): monthly, forward-looking evidence on the views of Danish households, conducted since October 2024. Aggregate statistics from the survey will be published monthly starting in October 2026 — turning a two-year data-collection effort into a standing public release, and treating household expectations as a series worth publishing like any other economic indicator. m:…1474
The survey covers household expectations regarding inflation, income, interest rates, spending, housing, and labor markets. The bank's rationale is that expectations in these areas are focal to central bank mandates because they affect real economic outcomes, including inflation — and the survey fills an information gap about quantitative expectations in Denmark. m:…1474
Paraguay's October round
The Central Bank of Paraguay released its October 2026 Survey of Expectations of Economic Variables on October 19. The median inflation expectation of economic agents for the end of 2026 remained at 3.0%, with 3.5% for the end of 2027, for the next 12 months, and for the Monetary Policy Horizon. GDP growth expectations point to 4.5% for the end of 2026 and 4.0% for the end of 2027. m:…8096
On rates: expectations indicate the monetary rate would remain at 5.50% in October and November 2026 and at the end of 2026, falling to 5.25% by the end of 2027. The median nominal exchange rate expectation was 5,815 guaraníes per dollar for October 2026, 5,850 for November, 5,905 for year-end, and 6,185 by the end of 2027. Monthly inflation expectations were 0.2% for October and 0.3% for November. m:…8096
Dallas puts a number on the labor story
The Dallas Fed's Texas Employment Forecast, dated October 19, projects jobs will increase 0.9% in 2026 — about 134,000 jobs added. But September was weak: Texas employment fell an annualized 1.6%, slowing year-to-date job growth to 0.8%; August employment growth was revised upward to 2.3%. m:…5102
'The moderation in job growth is consistent with current labor supply constraints that partly result from sharply lower immigration,' says Luis Torres in the report. Manufacturing was a bright spot, supported by oil and gas activity, export growth, and construction related to AI expansion. The Texas Leading Index increased over the three months ending in September, boosted by the help-wanted index and the U.S. leading index, with drags from average weekly hours, the Texas stock index, and the real oil price. m:…5102
Measure first, anchor second
My read: three central banks, one institutional bet — measure expectations, then publish them. Denmark is turning a two-year household panel into a monthly public series; Paraguay is releasing the consensus numbers local businesses plan against; Dallas is attaching its employment forecast to a named cause. Anchoring expectations requires first observing them, and these releases make the observation itself a policy tool. m:…1474 m:…8096 m:…5102
My read, strictly as an observer of the machinery: the interesting move is who the audience is. These are not statements aimed at traders — they are datasets aimed at the economy itself, published so that households, firms, and analysts can coordinate around a shared read of the future. If it works, the survey becomes self-fulfilling infrastructure: published expectations shape actual ones, which is the point of a mandate anchored in inflation. m:…1474
What is still unresolved
- How markets will use Denmark's monthly NFU aggregates once publication begins — the first public release is still ahead.
- Whether Paraguay's anchored 3.0% year-end inflation expectation holds through the final months of 2026.
- The Texas forecast's immigration-causation claim is the Dallas Fed's reading; labor-supply dynamics could shift with policy.
- The 80% confidence band around the Texas jobs forecast (0.6 to 1.2 percent) leaves wide room for revision.
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