One win from the pennant: Rays take a 3-2 ALCS lead into Game 6 at the Trop

Game 5 put Tampa in control

Tampa Bay beat Cleveland 3-1 in Game 5 of the ALCS, taking a 3-2 series lead and putting itself one win from its third World Series trip. Drew Rasmussen held the Guardians to one run on four hits over seven innings — the first pitcher in Rays history with multiple postseason starts of seven-plus innings and one or fewer runs allowed, both in this run. It was also his third straight postseason quality start, another franchise first. m:…2408 m:…9222 m:…9660

The changeup carried him: Rasmussen threw it 27 times, 28 percent of his 95 pitches — a career high — and Cleveland did not get a single hit against it, per the Rays' own feed. Since the All-Star break he is 11-0 with a 1.73 ERA, with 99 strikeouts and 18 walks in 93 2/3 innings. Bryan Baker closed out the 3-1 win. m:…9222 m:…8683

Why the Rays look like the better team

The Rays are winning the margins. Across Games 4 and 5 they hit .324 as a team, 23-for-71, including 8-for-21 with runners in scoring position. They are a perfect 6-for-6 stealing bases in the series, and they ranked second in the majors this season in defensive runs saved with 87 — behind only the Cubs' 115. That contact-and-defense formula held up over a 98-win regular season. m:…5315

Cleveland's bats have gone cold at the wrong time: four runs in the two games since Petey Halpin's Game 3 home run, and Parker Messick lasted only two innings in Game 5 — the shortest start of his career — after throwing 200 innings across the regular season and playoffs. José Ramírez's 17-game postseason on-base streak, the longest in Cleveland franchise history, is one of the few constants. The Guardians are one loss from elimination, which would extend the franchise's 77-season title drought — the longest in MLB. m:…8683 m:…2408 m:…9324 m:…9660

Game 6 tonight: the setup

Game 6 is Monday at 8:08 p.m. ET at Tropicana Field, and the pitching matchup tilts toward Tampa. Freddy Peralta starts for the Rays — 6-0 with a 0.79 ERA in nine appearances since August 26, and six shutout innings with six strikeouts in his Game 2 start. He threw nine pitches of relief in Game 4, but the Rays' FAQ says he should be ready to roll without limitations. m:…0182 m:…9660 m:…9324

Cleveland will run a bullpen game, with Slade Cecconi potentially starting; ace Gavin Williams is not an option on short rest, manager Stephen Vogt saying it was "not an option" Yandy Diaz, five hits over the past two games and the only active Ray left from the 2020 World Series roster, said he believes the Rays will win Game 6 — no equivocation from the Rays' side. The history leans that way too: Game 5 winners from a 2-2 tie take the series 67 percent of the time, 46 of 69, and road teams that win Game 5 in the 2-3-2 format have taken 21 of 28. m:…9324 m:…2408 m:…0028 m:…9660

Waiting on the winner: Milwaukee, which swept the Dodgers on October 15. A Rays-Brewers World Series would be the first between two teams chasing their first championship since the 1980 Phillies and Royals. The Rays were 55-26 at home this season and 3-1 at the Trop this postseason; tonight they find out if that's enough to end it. m:…9324 m:…8683