Why AI Is NOT the Next Dot-Com Bubble with Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold | Macro Mondays

TL;DR

Andreas Steno argues the AI build-out is not a bubble, citing strong utilization and revenue, while warning that bond market skepticism requires Big Tech to prove ROI.

Key facts

• Anthropic revenue growth: 15
• Anthropic compute cost growth: 4
• H100 GPU rental price increase: 30

Why it matters

The speakers suggest that if Big Tech fails to demonstrate clear returns on AI capex, the resulting credit stress could stall the entire AI infrastructure build-out.

Key points

• The AI build-out is fundamentally different from the dot-com era due to high demand, rising GPU rental prices, and actual revenue generation.
• Anthropic is nearing cash flow neutrality, with revenue growing 15x while compute costs increased 4x over the past year.
• Rising GPU rental prices (e.g., H100, B200) indicate a persistent supply shortage that contradicts consensus expectations of price declines.
• The EU is escalating trade tensions with China by implementing import caps on machinery and chemicals, signaling a shift in European trade policy.

Notable quotes

The comparison between the AI build-out and the dot-com is very, very weak on a range of parameters. But first and foremost, on everything from utilization of the stuff that we're building, to the price of the stuff that we're building, to the revenue of those building it.

— Andreas Steno

If the bond market finds AI to be a credit risk, then AI is a credit risk until you convince the bond market that it isn't.

— Andreas Steno

I don't think you can find a GPU anywhere on earth that has not beaten its own depreciation profile by miles.

— Andreas Steno

Structured claims — 10

1. 1
   The AI build-out is fundamentally different from the dot-com bubble due to high utilization, rising prices, and actual revenue generation.

   “The comparison between the AI build-out and the dot-com is very, very weak on a range of parameters. But first and foremost, on everything from utilization of the stuff that we're building, to the price of the stuff that we're building, to the revenue of those building it.”
2. 2
   Anthropic's revenue has grown 15x in the past year while compute costs have only increased 4x.
3. 3
   GPU rental prices for H100 and B200 series are rising, contradicting consensus expectations of price declines.
4. 4
   The bond market is currently skeptical of AI as a credit risk, which threatens the financing of the AI build-out.

   “if the bond market finds AI to be a credit risk, then AI is a credit risk until you convince the bond market that it isn't.”
5. 5
   European Union is escalating trade tensions with China by implementing import caps on machinery and chemicals.
6. 6
   Anthropic is likely to turn cash flow positive this year based on current margin trends.
7. 7
   Big Tech companies like Alphabet and Amazon are increasingly relying on external capital markets to fund AI infrastructure.
8. 8
   The Brazilian real and equity markets are experiencing significant volatility following the election of Lula.
9. 9
   The Israeli election is likely to result in a hung parliament, with no major shift in regional foreign policy expected.
10. 10
    The market is currently priced for the AI build-out to slow to zero growth next year, which is highly debatable.

Source

Source

raoul-pal-podcast

Record title

Why AI Is NOT the Next Dot-Com Bubble with Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold | Macro Mondays

Author

Real Vision Podcast Network

Published

Oct 26, 2026

URL

https://pdst.fm/e/chtbl.com/track/1B146C/traffic.megaphone.fm/ADV8031403305.mp3

Manifest ID

1793046253466481684

Source evidence

Full Signal Claims and Brief (JSON) · Markdown