Every atomic assertion extracted from the underlying record, ranked by evidence strength.
The Federal Reserve is currently in a wait-and-see mode regarding economic forecasts.
The current budget is a 'borderline incompetent' way to achieve the administration's goals.
There is an unusually wide split between hard data (GDP) and soft data (ISM) currently, with no identifiable time when the gap has been this large.
The budget proposes a 29% cut to the State Department.
The Netherlands election results are an encouraging development.
Headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) is running at 2.7% year-over-year.
The Federal Reserve's target for Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) is 2%.
Translating the Federal Reserve's PCE target to CPI would result in a figure around 2.3-2.4%.
The Federal Reserve's symmetric inflation target acknowledges that they will accept a slight overshoot on the upside.
The Atlanta Fed currently estimates first-quarter growth at less than 1%.
The New York Fed currently estimates growth in the current quarter at more than 3%.
The New York Fed's growth estimates are driven more by soft data, such as survey data and ISMs.
The Federal Reserve's statement removed reference to consumer and business sentiment, possibly indicating a slight de-emphasis on soft data.
If the correlation between GDP and the combined ISM holds, current growth would be 3% or more.
The Federal Reserve's mood toward the French election is different from the Brexit vote because it is still a ways off and the risks around it are seen as receding.
The outcome of the Dutch election helps reduce the risks around the French election.
The unemployment rate has continued to drift lower.
Estimates of Nehru (NAIRU) continue to decline.
Core inflation is several tenths away from its target.
Peter Hooper expected the Federal Reserve to implement three rate hikes for 2017.
There was a slight move up in the Federal Reserve's median dot for 2019.
Four Federal Reserve members moved their projections from two to three rate hikes for the current year.
The average dot for 2018 and 2019 increased by almost 10 basis points.
Polls in the Netherlands overestimated the strength of populist Geert Wilders.
Geert Wilders performed even less well than projected in the Dutch election.
Marine Le Pen, the right-wing nationalist, is expected to get through the first round of the French election.
Polls are solid in predicting that Marine Le Pen will lose in the second round runoff of the French election.
If Marine Le Pen were to win the French election, attracting companies to France would be impossible.
A Marine Le Pen victory could lead to France leaving the Euro and ripping up commercial contracts denominated in Euros.
French law and the constitution would make it very tough for Marine Le Pen to achieve her goals, such as leaving the Euro, without a majority in the parliament.
The discussion around Marine Le Pen's threats, even if not fully realized, would be freezing for investment.
Charlotte Hogg, a Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, has resigned.
Another Deputy Governor of the Bank of England is leaving to become the head of the London School of Economics.
Kristen Forbes of MIT, an external member of the Monetary Policy Committee, is leaving in the summer.
The Bank of England has become quite centralized around the figure of Mark Carney.
Janet Yellen did not 'spill some apples' by shocking people with a 50 basis point rate hike instead of 25 basis points.
The last two economic cycles were caused by stock market bubbles bursting, not by inflation spiking up.
The Federal Reserve should be more paranoid about asset prices overshooting.
When the Federal Reserve raises rates and equities go up, it is worrying.
Richard Haass published a definitive must-read document on Russia.
Policy towards Russia needs to be both tougher militarily and include elements of diplomatic reassurance.
Rex Tillerson has had a rough start as Secretary of State, lacking staff and a close personal relationship with the president.
Rex Tillerson's resources have been significantly cut.
There are multiple independent decision-making centers in the White House.
A Secretary of State not seen as authoritative undermines the chances of effective foreign policy.
Mick Mulvaney refers to the current budget as a 'hard power budget'.
National security requires a balance between hard and soft power.
The entire State Department budget constitutes 1% of the federal budget.
Cutting the State Department budget makes no sense, as it prevents military interventions and invests in stability.
Military interventions are incomparably more expensive than preventive diplomacy.
The current budget is narrow and does not consider entitlements.
Entitlements are where budget cuts need to happen to protect defense and domestic spending.
Janet Yellen stated that the economy was doing nicely.
First-quarter GDP is projected to be much lower than the fourth quarter of last year.
First quarters have historically shown lower GDP figures.
Jobs data is more consistent and stronger than GDP data.
Most weight should be placed on jobs numbers for signal extraction due to better underlying data.
Initial GDP estimates involve many guesses due to a lack of source data.
The current budget is 'extraordinarily skinny' and late.
Previous presidents from Carter through Obama delivered comprehensive budget blueprints by February 28th of their first year.