{
  "kind": "story",
  "slug": "trump-s-budget-is-borderline-incompetent-furman-says-8674970",
  "id": 1779964545488674970,
  "record_id": 1775924375589214438,
  "headline": "Trump's Budget Is Borderline Incompetent, Furman Says",
  "summary": "",
  "source": "bloomberg-surveillance-podcast",
  "source_url": "https://omny.fm/shows/bloomberg-surveillance/trumps-budget-is-borderline-incompetent-furman-say",
  "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
  "claim_type": null,
  "sentiment": "mixed",
  "significance": "medium",
  "claim_count": 103,
  "reading_time_minutes": 7,
  "published_date": "2026-04-11",
  "created_on": "2026-05-28T10:35:45.094001+00:00",
  "claims": [
    {
      "id": 1779964545754734648,
      "text": "The Federal Reserve is currently in a wait-and-see mode regarding economic forecasts.",
      "evidence_type": "direct_quote",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779964546374134231,
      "text": "The current budget is a 'borderline incompetent' way to achieve the administration's goals.",
      "evidence_type": "direct_quote",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779964545894266775,
      "text": "There is an unusually wide split between hard data (GDP) and soft data (ISM) currently, with no identifiable time when the gap has been this large.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779964546226874234,
      "text": "The budget proposes a 29% cut to the State Department.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779964545982370724,
      "text": "The Netherlands election results are an encouraging development.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779964545830050602,
      "text": "Headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) is running at 2.7% year-over-year.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779964545834150079,
      "text": "The Federal Reserve's target for Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) is 2%.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779964545854354421,
      "text": "Translating the Federal Reserve's PCE target to CPI would result in a figure around 2.3-2.4%.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779964545862927474,
      "text": "The Federal Reserve's symmetric inflation target acknowledges that they will accept a slight overshoot on the upside.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779964545866736435,
      "text": "The Atlanta Fed currently estimates first-quarter growth at less than 1%.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779964545870498286,
      "text": "The New York Fed currently estimates growth in the current quarter at more than 3%.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779964545882606246,
      "text": "The New York Fed's growth estimates are driven more by soft data, such as survey data and ISMs.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779964545886513570,
      "text": "The Federal Reserve's statement removed reference to consumer and business sentiment, possibly indicating a slight de-emphasis on soft data.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779964545902635172,
      "text": "If the correlation between GDP and the combined ISM holds, current growth would be 3% or more.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779964545906280359,
      "text": "The Federal Reserve's mood toward the French election is different from the Brexit vote because it is still a ways off and the risks around it are seen as receding.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779964545918813694,
      "text": "The outcome of the Dutch election helps reduce the risks around the French election.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779964545930092588,
      "text": "The unemployment rate has continued to drift lower.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779964545934290154,
      "text": "Estimates of Nehru (NAIRU) continue to decline.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779964545949619298,
      "text": "Core inflation is several tenths away from its target.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779964545954439203,
      "text": "Peter Hooper expected the Federal Reserve to implement three rate hikes for 2017.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779964545962345383,
      "text": "There was a slight move up in the Federal Reserve's median dot for 2019.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779964545974798876,
      "text": "Four Federal Reserve members moved their projections from two to three rate hikes for the current year.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779964545979748726,
      "text": "The average dot for 2018 and 2019 increased by almost 10 basis points.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779964545994681961,
      "text": "Polls in the Netherlands overestimated the strength of populist Geert Wilders.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779964546002929723,
      "text": "Geert Wilders performed even less well than projected in the Dutch election.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779964546033901360,
      "text": "Marine Le Pen, the right-wing nationalist, is expected to get through the first round of the French election.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779964546038887196,
      "text": "Polls are solid in predicting that Marine Le Pen will lose in the second round runoff of the French election.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779964546046346178,
      "text": "If Marine Le Pen were to win the French election, attracting companies to France would be impossible.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779964546058251744,
      "text": "A Marine Le Pen victory could lead to France leaving the Euro and ripping up commercial contracts denominated in Euros.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779964546089954737,
      "text": "French law and the constitution would make it very tough for Marine Le Pen to achieve her goals, such as leaving the Euro, without a majority in the parliament.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779964546098387440,
      "text": "The discussion around Marine Le Pen's threats, even if not fully realized, would be freezing for investment.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779964546101019175,
      "text": "Charlotte Hogg, a Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, has resigned.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779964546105817462,
      "text": "Another Deputy Governor of the Bank of England is leaving to become the head of the London School of Economics.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779964546110365862,
      "text": "Kristen Forbes of MIT, an external member of the Monetary Policy Committee, is leaving in the summer.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779964546122906190,
      "text": "The Bank of England has become quite centralized around the figure of Mark Carney.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779964546138394368,
      "text": "Janet Yellen did not 'spill some apples' by shocking people with a 50 basis point rate hike instead of 25 basis points.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779964546146263948,
      "text": "The last two economic cycles were caused by stock market bubbles bursting, not by inflation spiking up.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779964546166061040,
      "text": "The Federal Reserve should be more paranoid about asset prices overshooting.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779964546170527058,
      "text": "When the Federal Reserve raises rates and equities go up, it is worrying.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779964546182161762,
      "text": "Richard Haass published a definitive must-read document on Russia.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779964546186008421,
      "text": "Policy towards Russia needs to be both tougher militarily and include elements of diplomatic reassurance.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779964546202393312,
      "text": "Rex Tillerson has had a rough start as Secretary of State, lacking staff and a close personal relationship with the president.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779964546206485128,
      "text": "Rex Tillerson's resources have been significantly cut.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779964546214732953,
      "text": "There are multiple independent decision-making centers in the White House.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779964546218893679,
      "text": "A Secretary of State not seen as authoritative undermines the chances of effective foreign policy.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779964546220902758,
      "text": "Mick Mulvaney refers to the current budget as a 'hard power budget'.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779964546237772747,
      "text": "National security requires a balance between hard and soft power.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779964546242907314,
      "text": "The entire State Department budget constitutes 1% of the federal budget.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779964546249867917,
      "text": "Cutting the State Department budget makes no sense, as it prevents military interventions and invests in stability.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779964546264431349,
      "text": "Military interventions are incomparably more expensive than preventive diplomacy.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779964546282035268,
      "text": "The current budget is narrow and does not consider entitlements.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779964546286094346,
      "text": "Entitlements are where budget cuts need to happen to protect defense and domestic spending.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779964546290229648,
      "text": "Janet Yellen stated that the economy was doing nicely.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779964546294050823,
      "text": "First-quarter GDP is projected to be much lower than the fourth quarter of last year.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779964546322947582,
      "text": "First quarters have historically shown lower GDP figures.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779964546330489613,
      "text": "Jobs data is more consistent and stronger than GDP data.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779964546332591923,
      "text": "Most weight should be placed on jobs numbers for signal extraction due to better underlying data.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779964546342807456,
      "text": "Initial GDP estimates involve many guesses due to a lack of source data.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779964546350318417,
      "text": "The current budget is 'extraordinarily skinny' and late.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779964546354717303,
      "text": "Previous presidents from Carter through Obama delivered comprehensive budget blueprints by February 28th of their first year.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    }
  ],
  "tags": [
    {
      "id": 17733518130075620,
      "slug": "adobe-organization",
      "name": "Adobe",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17730935072642232,
      "slug": "ati-organization",
      "name": "ATI",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17733517078148640,
      "slug": "atlanta-fed-organization",
      "name": "Atlanta Fed",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038993591429,
      "slug": "bank-of-america-organization",
      "name": "Bank of America",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038993590275,
      "slug": "bank-of-england-organization",
      "name": "Bank of England",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17733516524991708,
      "slug": "bloomberg-organization",
      "name": "Bloomberg",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17733540810607783,
      "slug": "cdao-organization",
      "name": "CDAO",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17733540789342494,
      "slug": "citi-organization",
      "name": "Citi",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17733541167072741,
      "slug": "cme-organization",
      "name": "CME",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038993750800,
      "slug": "council-on-foreign-relations-organization",
      "name": "Council on Foreign Relations",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038993591871,
      "slug": "deutsche-bank-organization",
      "name": "Deutsche Bank",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17733541381945613,
      "slug": "epa-organization",
      "name": "EPA",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038993758010,
      "slug": "european-union-organization",
      "name": "European Union",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038993590095,
      "slug": "federal-reserve-organization",
      "name": "Federal Reserve",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17733517083969326,
      "slug": "london-school-of-economics-organization",
      "name": "London School of Economics",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038993701997,
      "slug": "merrill-lynch-organization",
      "name": "Merrill Lynch",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17733517701582166,
      "slug": "mit-organization",
      "name": "MIT",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17724184069652710,
      "slug": "monetary-policy-committee-organization",
      "name": "Monetary Policy Committee",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17733540869078398,
      "slug": "new-york-fed-organization",
      "name": "New York Fed",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17733541127463763,
      "slug": "nih-organization",
      "name": "NIH",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038994826902,
      "slug": "office-of-management-and-budget-organization",
      "name": "Office of Management and Budget",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038994124605,
      "slug": "peterson-institute-for-international-economics-organization",
      "name": "Peterson Institute for International Economics",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17733580652934318,
      "slug": "president-s-council-of-economic-advisors-organization",
      "name": "President's Council of Economic Advisors",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17733574435206843,
      "slug": "pri-organization",
      "name": "PRI",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17733541136194915,
      "slug": "sipc-organization",
      "name": "SIPC",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17733541227129519,
      "slug": "state-department-organization",
      "name": "State Department",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17730924795057712,
      "slug": "washington-post-organization",
      "name": "Washington Post",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17730924964219128,
      "slug": "white-house-organization",
      "name": "White House",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038994284696,
      "slug": "alan-greenspan-person",
      "name": "Alan Greenspan",
      "type": "person"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038994420270,
      "slug": "alan-ruskin-person",
      "name": "Alan Ruskin",
      "type": "person"
    },
    {
      "id": 17799644595096889,
      "slug": "anne-hidalgo-person",
      "name": "Anne Hidalgo",
      "type": "person"
    },
    {
      "id": 17724157309470773,
      "slug": "arthur-burns-person",
      "name": "Arthur Burns",
      "type": "person"
    },
    {
      "id": 17730930632331978,
      "slug": "chancellor-merkel-person",
      "name": "Chancellor Merkel",
      "type": "person"
    },
    {
      "id": 17731180599004408,
      "slug": "charlotte-hogg-person",
      "name": "Charlotte Hogg",
      "type": "person"
    },
    {
      "id": 17730925074299867,
      "slug": "david-gurra-person",
      "name": "David Gurra",
      "type": "person"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038993608245,
      "slug": "donald-trump-person",
      "name": "Donald Trump",
      "type": "person"
    },
    {
      "id": 17730930591233422,
      "slug": "doug-cass-person",
      "name": "Doug Cass",
      "type": "person"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038993608779,
      "slug": "emmanuel-macron-person",
      "name": "Emmanuel Macron",
      "type": "person"
    },
    {
      "id": 17726499122064812,
      "slug": "geert-wilders-person",
      "name": "Geert Wilders",
      "type": "person"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038994419833,
      "slug": "ian-bremmer-person",
      "name": "Ian Bremmer",
      "type": "person"
    }
  ]
}