Every atomic assertion extracted from the underlying record, ranked by evidence strength.
Jay Winnick believes American democracy is strong and will come together again.
The election is not going to be stolen.
The Federal Reserve will likely move rates again in December, assuming no shockingly weak payroll reports.
Inflation expectations have been higher recently.
Credit markets are more stable now compared to last December.
Shake Shack's average store sales are north of $5 million.
Restaurant sales have clearly decelerated in the back half of this year, beginning in the second quarter.
The Federal Reserve desperately wants to move short rates up.
The Federal Reserve was dissuaded from raising rates earlier this year due to financial market instability in January and mid-February.
The Federal Reserve was dissuaded from raising rates earlier this year due to soft macro data.
Job growth is occurring, but the unemployment rate has leveled off.
Janet Yellen's slack-based Phillips curve model suggests the economy is growing at potential, requiring more information before rate hikes.
Credit markets were weakening dramatically before last December's rate rise.
Inflation expectations were slumping last December.
The Federal Reserve has been involved in a learning process this year.
The Federal Reserve committee ended up doing a lot less than they had signaled at the beginning of the year, which was for four rate rises.
Not following through on initial rate hike signals allowed stability to return to markets.
Michael Darda would not move rates in December because nominal growth is still slow.
The Q3 GDP report was inflated by inventories and trade.
Excluding inventories and trade, nominal GDP is only annualizing at 3%.
3% nominal GDP is the minimum needed to generate on-target inflation, even with weak productivity statistics.
The TIP spread is moving up but is still way below a level consistent with the Federal Reserve's inflation target.
The Bank of Japan's learning process may be going in reverse gear.
Inflation expectations in Japan went from zero or sub-zero up to 1.5% from 2013 to 2015.
Nominal growth and inflation both improved in Japan from 2013 to 2015.
Japanese inflation expectations have faltered back to zero this year.
Investors interpret the Bank of Japan's move to negative deposit rates and yield curve actions as a sign that the BOJ is effectively throwing in the towel.
The argument for changing inflation targets is that a very low growth backdrop leads to hitting zero on short rates more frequently.
Two ways to address frequently hitting zero on short rates are negative deposit rates or a higher inflation target.
Negative deposit rates have not been popular from a PR perspective in parts of Europe and Japan.
Federal Reserve President Williams was the first to address the prospects for nominal GDP level targeting or higher inflation targets.
Japan raised rates once in 2000, which was followed by a deflationary recession.
Japan raised rates twice in 2006 and 2007, which was followed by a deflationary recession and a return to zero rates.
Japan ran huge fiscal deficits in the late 1990s but still failed to get off the zero lower bound.
A decision to raise rates will result in slower nominal growth and lower inflation compared to not tightening monetary policy.
Normalizing discount rates implies also assuming a normalization on nominal GDP growth.
Normalizing nominal GDP growth does not appear likely due to weak productivity statistics, demographic headwinds, and the Federal Reserve undershooting its inflation target.
The Federal Reserve could easily trigger a recession and a spike in volatility by not moving interest rates up very much.
The ECB raised rates by 50 basis points in 2011 at the wrong time, which was a huge mistake that caused markets to crash and the business cycle to roll over.
Demand-side fiscal stimulus will only result in the Federal Reserve tightening more if the Fed is comfortable with the business cycle.
Fiscal policy could significantly help on the supply side through incentives for growth, efficiency, and productive potential.
Supply-side fiscal policy includes reforms to taxation, regulation, immigration, and education aimed at economic efficiency.
Janet Yellen's speech called for thinking about running the economy at a higher pressure.
Yellen's suggestion that a high-pressure economy could help the supply side is controversial.
The consensus view is that the supply side has nothing to do with monetary policy.
Yellen's speech was misinterpreted as a commitment to conduct policy, but it was presented as a question for research.
A December rate rise is not consistent with the Federal Reserve being intent on running a 'hot' economy.
The fourth quarter of last year and the first quarter of this year were very strong for restaurant sales in aggregate.
2015 was one of the strongest years ever for restaurant sales.
The consumer has 'stepped down' this year.
Fast food sales, as seen by McDonald's, have slowed.
The casual dining industry has been slow for a number of years and has stepped down further.
McDonald's is in the middle of a long-term turnaround.
McDonald's had success late last year with all-day breakfast and some value offerings.
McDonald's sales began to decelerate this year.
Four-wall EBITDA refers to the cash flow a restaurant generates at the store level.
Shake Shack produces restaurant-level margins of about 30%.
The average restaurant achieves about 20% cash flow margin.
The scarcity of growth has led investors to overpay for growth, meaning great fundamentals do not always translate into great stocks.
Wingstop has 50% unit potential remaining for growth.