{
  "kind": "story",
  "slug": "surveillance-the-election-isn-t-going-to-be-stolen-winik-say-2265764",
  "id": 1779943170552265764,
  "record_id": 1775924375650966871,
  "headline": "Surveillance: The Election Isn't Going to Be Stolen, Winik Says",
  "summary": "",
  "source": "bloomberg-surveillance-podcast",
  "source_url": "https://omny.fm/shows/bloomberg-surveillance/surveillance-the-election-isnt-going-to-be-stolen",
  "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
  "claim_type": null,
  "sentiment": "mixed",
  "significance": "medium",
  "claim_count": 99,
  "reading_time_minutes": 7,
  "published_date": "2026-04-11",
  "created_on": "2026-05-28T04:39:30.253742+00:00",
  "claims": [
    {
      "id": 1779943172097927033,
      "text": "Jay Winnick believes American democracy is strong and will come together again.",
      "evidence_type": "direct_quote",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779943172153803150,
      "text": "The election is not going to be stolen.",
      "evidence_type": "direct_quote",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779943171093691528,
      "text": "The Federal Reserve will likely move rates again in December, assuming no shockingly weak payroll reports.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779943171222840635,
      "text": "Inflation expectations have been higher recently.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779943171202920653,
      "text": "Credit markets are more stable now compared to last December.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779943171834536416,
      "text": "Shake Shack's average store sales are north of $5 million.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779943171690689065,
      "text": "Restaurant sales have clearly decelerated in the back half of this year, beginning in the second quarter.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779943171130609033,
      "text": "The Federal Reserve desperately wants to move short rates up.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779943171137126380,
      "text": "The Federal Reserve was dissuaded from raising rates earlier this year due to financial market instability in January and mid-February.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779943171144991278,
      "text": "The Federal Reserve was dissuaded from raising rates earlier this year due to soft macro data.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779943171150290306,
      "text": "Job growth is occurring, but the unemployment rate has leveled off.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779943171166707703,
      "text": "Janet Yellen's slack-based Phillips curve model suggests the economy is growing at potential, requiring more information before rate hikes.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779943171173891607,
      "text": "Credit markets were weakening dramatically before last December's rate rise.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779943171185741480,
      "text": "Inflation expectations were slumping last December.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779943171234479409,
      "text": "The Federal Reserve has been involved in a learning process this year.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779943171246930975,
      "text": "The Federal Reserve committee ended up doing a lot less than they had signaled at the beginning of the year, which was for four rate rises.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779943171253210205,
      "text": "Not following through on initial rate hike signals allowed stability to return to markets.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779943171276717893,
      "text": "Michael Darda would not move rates in December because nominal growth is still slow.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779943171286581274,
      "text": "The Q3 GDP report was inflated by inventories and trade.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779943171293479928,
      "text": "Excluding inventories and trade, nominal GDP is only annualizing at 3%.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779943171309338550,
      "text": "3% nominal GDP is the minimum needed to generate on-target inflation, even with weak productivity statistics.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779943171326320708,
      "text": "The TIP spread is moving up but is still way below a level consistent with the Federal Reserve's inflation target.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779943171345001767,
      "text": "The Bank of Japan's learning process may be going in reverse gear.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779943171351674434,
      "text": "Inflation expectations in Japan went from zero or sub-zero up to 1.5% from 2013 to 2015.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779943171370722251,
      "text": "Nominal growth and inflation both improved in Japan from 2013 to 2015.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779943171386089295,
      "text": "Japanese inflation expectations have faltered back to zero this year.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779943171393839791,
      "text": "Investors interpret the Bank of Japan's move to negative deposit rates and yield curve actions as a sign that the BOJ is effectively throwing in the towel.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779943171422863761,
      "text": "The argument for changing inflation targets is that a very low growth backdrop leads to hitting zero on short rates more frequently.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779943171436229301,
      "text": "Two ways to address frequently hitting zero on short rates are negative deposit rates or a higher inflation target.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779943171450298977,
      "text": "Negative deposit rates have not been popular from a PR perspective in parts of Europe and Japan.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779943171457243761,
      "text": "Federal Reserve President Williams was the first to address the prospects for nominal GDP level targeting or higher inflation targets.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779943171466569787,
      "text": "Japan raised rates once in 2000, which was followed by a deflationary recession.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779943171473078419,
      "text": "Japan raised rates twice in 2006 and 2007, which was followed by a deflationary recession and a return to zero rates.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779943171490949098,
      "text": "Japan ran huge fiscal deficits in the late 1990s but still failed to get off the zero lower bound.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779943171497517121,
      "text": "A decision to raise rates will result in slower nominal growth and lower inflation compared to not tightening monetary policy.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779943171510090306,
      "text": "Normalizing discount rates implies also assuming a normalization on nominal GDP growth.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779943171542489495,
      "text": "Normalizing nominal GDP growth does not appear likely due to weak productivity statistics, demographic headwinds, and the Federal Reserve undershooting its inflation target.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779943171562626583,
      "text": "The Federal Reserve could easily trigger a recession and a spike in volatility by not moving interest rates up very much.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779943171582643569,
      "text": "The ECB raised rates by 50 basis points in 2011 at the wrong time, which was a huge mistake that caused markets to crash and the business cycle to roll over.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779943171589107819,
      "text": "Demand-side fiscal stimulus will only result in the Federal Reserve tightening more if the Fed is comfortable with the business cycle.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779943171610904420,
      "text": "Fiscal policy could significantly help on the supply side through incentives for growth, efficiency, and productive potential.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779943171618036278,
      "text": "Supply-side fiscal policy includes reforms to taxation, regulation, immigration, and education aimed at economic efficiency.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779943171626198286,
      "text": "Janet Yellen's speech called for thinking about running the economy at a higher pressure.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779943171634993358,
      "text": "Yellen's suggestion that a high-pressure economy could help the supply side is controversial.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779943171653324787,
      "text": "The consensus view is that the supply side has nothing to do with monetary policy.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779943171664077709,
      "text": "Yellen's speech was misinterpreted as a commitment to conduct policy, but it was presented as a question for research.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779943171682726981,
      "text": "A December rate rise is not consistent with the Federal Reserve being intent on running a 'hot' economy.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779943171697448279,
      "text": "The fourth quarter of last year and the first quarter of this year were very strong for restaurant sales in aggregate.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779943171718007928,
      "text": "2015 was one of the strongest years ever for restaurant sales.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779943171739911265,
      "text": "The consumer has 'stepped down' this year.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779943171746669644,
      "text": "Fast food sales, as seen by McDonald's, have slowed.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779943171753389158,
      "text": "The casual dining industry has been slow for a number of years and has stepped down further.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779943171759620809,
      "text": "McDonald's is in the middle of a long-term turnaround.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779943171770580563,
      "text": "McDonald's had success late last year with all-day breakfast and some value offerings.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779943171798752172,
      "text": "McDonald's sales began to decelerate this year.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779943171819137198,
      "text": "Four-wall EBITDA refers to the cash flow a restaurant generates at the store level.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779943171842960959,
      "text": "Shake Shack produces restaurant-level margins of about 30%.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779943171856686296,
      "text": "The average restaurant achieves about 20% cash flow margin.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779943171874846433,
      "text": "The scarcity of growth has led investors to overpay for growth, meaning great fundamentals do not always translate into great stocks.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779943171886105384,
      "text": "Wingstop has 50% unit potential remaining for growth.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    }
  ],
  "tags": [
    {
      "id": 17730935072642232,
      "slug": "ati-organization",
      "name": "ATI",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038993590275,
      "slug": "bank-of-england-organization",
      "name": "Bank of England",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038993590356,
      "slug": "bank-of-japan-organization",
      "name": "Bank of Japan",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17733516524991708,
      "slug": "bloomberg-organization",
      "name": "Bloomberg",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17733515718644388,
      "slug": "charles-schwab-organization",
      "name": "Charles Schwab",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17733541167072741,
      "slug": "cme-organization",
      "name": "CME",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038993750800,
      "slug": "council-on-foreign-relations-organization",
      "name": "Council on Foreign Relations",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17733543141952134,
      "slug": "ecb-organization",
      "name": "ECB",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038994952508,
      "slug": "economic-club-of-new-york-organization",
      "name": "Economic Club of New York",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038993590095,
      "slug": "federal-reserve-organization",
      "name": "Federal Reserve",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038993600058,
      "slug": "ibm-organization",
      "name": "IBM",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17733516540394529,
      "slug": "mcdonald-s-organization",
      "name": "McDonald's",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038994423745,
      "slug": "mkm-partners-organization",
      "name": "MKM Partners",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038993591337,
      "slug": "morgan-stanley-organization",
      "name": "Morgan Stanley",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038994114374,
      "slug": "nesta-organization",
      "name": "Nesta",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17728547138951419,
      "slug": "simply-organization",
      "name": "Simply",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17724274798769250,
      "slug": "aaron-burriss-person",
      "name": "Aaron Burriss",
      "type": "person"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038993805533,
      "slug": "abraham-lincoln-person",
      "name": "Abraham Lincoln",
      "type": "person"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038994194680,
      "slug": "alexander-hamilton-person",
      "name": "Alexander Hamilton",
      "type": "person"
    },
    {
      "id": 17730925074299867,
      "slug": "david-gurra-person",
      "name": "David Gurra",
      "type": "person"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038994489458,
      "slug": "david-rubenstein-person",
      "name": "David Rubenstein",
      "type": "person"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038993608245,
      "slug": "donald-trump-person",
      "name": "Donald Trump",
      "type": "person"
    },
    {
      "id": 17730924887670734,
      "slug": "george-bush-person",
      "name": "George Bush",
      "type": "person"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038993708941,
      "slug": "hillary-clinton-person",
      "name": "Hillary Clinton",
      "type": "person"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038993604872,
      "slug": "janet-yellen-person",
      "name": "Janet Yellen",
      "type": "person"
    },
    {
      "id": 17784029577936130,
      "slug": "jill-lepore-person",
      "name": "Jill Lepore",
      "type": "person"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038994083582,
      "slug": "john-adams-person",
      "name": "John Adams",
      "type": "person"
    },
    {
      "id": 17724203692603624,
      "slug": "john-glass-person",
      "name": "John Glass",
      "type": "person"
    },
    {
      "id": 17724202620136467,
      "slug": "michael-darda-person",
      "name": "Michael Darda",
      "type": "person"
    },
    {
      "id": 17726746648987889,
      "slug": "randy-garutti-person",
      "name": "Randy Garutti",
      "type": "person"
    },
    {
      "id": 17730927343778127,
      "slug": "richard-haas-person",
      "name": "Richard Haas",
      "type": "person"
    },
    {
      "id": 17730932384494551,
      "slug": "ron-chernow-person",
      "name": "Ron Chernow",
      "type": "person"
    },
    {
      "id": 17730927371326671,
      "slug": "stanley-fisher-person",
      "name": "Stanley Fisher",
      "type": "person"
    },
    {
      "id": 17730924850483837,
      "slug": "thomas-jefferson-person",
      "name": "Thomas Jefferson",
      "type": "person"
    },
    {
      "id": 17730930280337996,
      "slug": "tom-keen-person",
      "name": "Tom Keen",
      "type": "person"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038994194062,
      "slug": "baltimore-place",
      "name": "Baltimore",
      "type": "place"
    },
    {
      "id": 17730924782689216,
      "slug": "europe-place",
      "name": "Europe",
      "type": "place"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038993609227,
      "slug": "japan-place",
      "name": "Japan",
      "type": "place"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038993610206,
      "slug": "russia-place",
      "name": "Russia",
      "type": "place"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038993608963,
      "slug": "united-states-place",
      "name": "United States",
      "type": "place"
    }
  ]
}