Every atomic assertion extracted from the underlying record, ranked by evidence strength.
Reality makes a president, not the president making reality.
Russia is a weak country carrying out a brilliant bluff.
Correlations among stocks in the S&P are at their lowest in about 10 years.
The breakout in J.P. Morgan is considered the most important chart of 2016.
Economists are worried that markets are trading like it's a new day, and if that doesn't come, the economy is left with a slowing trajectory.
This can stretch the consumer cycle longer because they have more cushion to absorb a faster economy with higher interest rates or a softening economy.
The unknown unknown for 2017 is what happens on trade policy and how far it will be pushed.
Lower correlations are often consistent with a supportive credit environment.
Investors were not distinguishing among stocks during past correlation spikes, treating them as an asset class.
Investors have put $4 trillion of trust in independent registered investment advisors.
BlackRock is a barometer for the broader market, acting as an almost leverage play on stocks.
Today, investors are treating individual names on their own individual merit.
This healthier framework is often consistent with lower volatility.
The change towards lower correlations is good news for active management in the active versus passive debate.
Correlation spikes were observed during the China devaluation in August 2015, when oil was at $26, and around Brexit.
The election has been the first macro event in 18 months where correlations have actually declined.
The market is not terribly extended at this point according to Strategas Research Partners' work.
J.P. Morgan's stock went nowhere for 17 years, peaking in March 2000.
The move in J.P. Morgan through $65 and to $80 is a game changer.
The financial sector is in the early innings of a new secular bull market.
When a sector stays out of favor for 10 to 12 years, the next number of years tend to be quite good.
Tech was out of favor from 2002 up to 2010, and healthcare up through about 2009.
Wage growth has not picked up meaningfully, and real disposable income is slowing noticeably.
BlackRock spent the last 24 months not making anyone any money, similar to the broader market.
The breakout in BlackRock over the last several weeks is welcomed.
Financials have become relative plays for the first time in a decade.
The energy sector is the most difficult call on the street right now.
Oil could grind towards $60 over the next number of months.
The history of oil shows a 70% decline only a year removed.
The next number of years for oil could look like a big trading range with vicious rallies and declines.
The street is still running net short S&P futures, which is not reflective of a very euphoric environment.
Lower correlations reflect normalcy in the market.
There is a dichotomy between what people are saying and what they are actually doing in the equity market.
Greater emphasis should be placed on actual positioning data over survey data.
The number of downgrades to upgrades for the bank group since the election has been staggering.
Sentiment often trails actual price action.
The market started to change over the summer, with leadership changing before bond yields rose.
Financials started to improve by July, and industrials showed leadership all year.
The story will follow price action, and price action is always more important than sentiment.
Sentiment might get too aggressive in the first quarter of the new year.
The fourth quarter GDP is tracking not that great.
Durable goods data is unlikely to change the trend until potential Trump policies are delivered.
Business investment has not been on a good trajectory.
Weekly jobless claims are at extraordinarily low levels.
The Fed is worried about a tight labor market if Trump's policies kick off another wave of hiring.
Sentiment can be thought of as what people say they're doing versus what they actually are doing (surveys vs. positioning).
Mean reversion is still the name of the game for oil.
Corporate tax reform that incentivizes business investment and personal income tax reform targeted at lower-income groups would contribute most to growth.
Many investors are cherry-picking Trump's policies, focusing on tax reform positives and ignoring potential negatives from unknown trade policy.
Forecasts for the economy under Trump must be nimble due to many unknowns, especially trade policy.
A strong dollar call dampens growth.
For every 10% sustained increase in the trade-weighted dollar, it can dampen GDP growth by about half a percentage point.
Stronger dollar dampens overall business investment and inflation.
The US consumer is buying more but at deeper discounts this holiday season.
Big box retailers continue to lose share to internet retailers like Amazon.
The consumer remains cautious overall.
A growing share of the population is aging and moving into age cohorts with lower rates of spending.
The household balance sheet is encouraged, with very little exposure to variable rates.
As interest rates rise, interest expense on the balance sheet does not eat into disposable income as it has in the past.
The bank group has the second fewest number of buy ratings among sell-side analysts compared to any other group.