{
  "kind": "story",
  "slug": "surveillance-forecasts-have-to-be-nimble-with-trump-s-unknow-2085357",
  "id": 1779944395262085357,
  "record_id": 1775924375620953278,
  "headline": "Surveillance: Forecasts Have to Be Nimble With Trump's Unknowns",
  "summary": "",
  "source": "bloomberg-surveillance-podcast",
  "source_url": "https://omny.fm/shows/bloomberg-surveillance/surveillance-forecasts-have-to-be-nimble-with-trum",
  "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
  "claim_type": null,
  "sentiment": "mixed",
  "significance": "high",
  "claim_count": 136,
  "reading_time_minutes": 10,
  "published_date": "2026-04-11",
  "created_on": "2026-05-28T04:59:54.968103+00:00",
  "claims": [
    {
      "id": 1779944396698543310,
      "text": "Reality makes a president, not the president making reality.",
      "evidence_type": "direct_quote",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779944396590813582,
      "text": "Russia is a weak country carrying out a brilliant bluff.",
      "evidence_type": "direct_quote",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779944395626224644,
      "text": "Correlations among stocks in the S&P are at their lowest in about 10 years.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779944395714302730,
      "text": "The breakout in J.P. Morgan is considered the most important chart of 2016.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779944396113659758,
      "text": "Economists are worried that markets are trading like it's a new day, and if that doesn't come, the economy is left with a slowing trajectory.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779944396290817194,
      "text": "This can stretch the consumer cycle longer because they have more cushion to absorb a faster economy with higher interest rates or a softening economy.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779944396430268801,
      "text": "The unknown unknown for 2017 is what happens on trade policy and how far it will be pushed.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779944395638236477,
      "text": "Lower correlations are often consistent with a supportive credit environment.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779944395676732624,
      "text": "Investors were not distinguishing among stocks during past correlation spikes, treating them as an asset class.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779944395596227922,
      "text": "Investors have put $4 trillion of trust in independent registered investment advisors.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779944395758140936,
      "text": "BlackRock is a barometer for the broader market, acting as an almost leverage play on stocks.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779944395682881058,
      "text": "Today, investors are treating individual names on their own individual merit.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779944395686098543,
      "text": "This healthier framework is often consistent with lower volatility.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779944395690716312,
      "text": "The change towards lower correlations is good news for active management in the active versus passive debate.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779944395670646065,
      "text": "Correlation spikes were observed during the China devaluation in August 2015, when oil was at $26, and around Brexit.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779944395661769451,
      "text": "The election has been the first macro event in 18 months where correlations have actually declined.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779944395606327235,
      "text": "The market is not terribly extended at this point according to Strategas Research Partners' work.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779944395718792014,
      "text": "J.P. Morgan's stock went nowhere for 17 years, peaking in March 2000.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779944395726968245,
      "text": "The move in J.P. Morgan through $65 and to $80 is a game changer.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779944395742249516,
      "text": "The financial sector is in the early innings of a new secular bull market.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779944395752113684,
      "text": "When a sector stays out of favor for 10 to 12 years, the next number of years tend to be quite good.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779944395754427014,
      "text": "Tech was out of favor from 2002 up to 2010, and healthcare up through about 2009.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779944396142745957,
      "text": "Wage growth has not picked up meaningfully, and real disposable income is slowing noticeably.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779944395778955034,
      "text": "BlackRock spent the last 24 months not making anyone any money, similar to the broader market.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779944395783212755,
      "text": "The breakout in BlackRock over the last several weeks is welcomed.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779944395785183191,
      "text": "Financials have become relative plays for the first time in a decade.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779944395788781605,
      "text": "The energy sector is the most difficult call on the street right now.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779944395797415124,
      "text": "Oil could grind towards $60 over the next number of months.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779944395818605348,
      "text": "The history of oil shows a 70% decline only a year removed.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779944395827191246,
      "text": "The next number of years for oil could look like a big trading range with vicious rallies and declines.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779944395922351282,
      "text": "The street is still running net short S&P futures, which is not reflective of a very euphoric environment.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779944395646544637,
      "text": "Lower correlations reflect normalcy in the market.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779944395898564756,
      "text": "There is a dichotomy between what people are saying and what they are actually doing in the equity market.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779944395873173869,
      "text": "Greater emphasis should be placed on actual positioning data over survey data.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779944395710355263,
      "text": "The number of downgrades to upgrades for the bank group since the election has been staggering.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779944395938442556,
      "text": "Sentiment often trails actual price action.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779944395954616682,
      "text": "The market started to change over the summer, with leadership changing before bond yields rose.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779944395972727882,
      "text": "Financials started to improve by July, and industrials showed leadership all year.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779944395993488744,
      "text": "The story will follow price action, and price action is always more important than sentiment.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779944396023104397,
      "text": "Sentiment might get too aggressive in the first quarter of the new year.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779944396026031856,
      "text": "The fourth quarter GDP is tracking not that great.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779944396084646362,
      "text": "Durable goods data is unlikely to change the trend until potential Trump policies are delivered.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779944396087463811,
      "text": "Business investment has not been on a good trajectory.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779944396091221148,
      "text": "Weekly jobless claims are at extraordinarily low levels.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779944396094069977,
      "text": "The Fed is worried about a tight labor market if Trump's policies kick off another wave of hiring.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779944395865793590,
      "text": "Sentiment can be thought of as what people say they're doing versus what they actually are doing (surveys vs. positioning).",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779944395854135401,
      "text": "Mean reversion is still the name of the game for oil.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779944396162975982,
      "text": "Corporate tax reform that incentivizes business investment and personal income tax reform targeted at lower-income groups would contribute most to growth.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779944396173077067,
      "text": "Many investors are cherry-picking Trump's policies, focusing on tax reform positives and ignoring potential negatives from unknown trade policy.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779944396176630654,
      "text": "Forecasts for the economy under Trump must be nimble due to many unknowns, especially trade policy.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779944396179654736,
      "text": "A strong dollar call dampens growth.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779944396206943381,
      "text": "For every 10% sustained increase in the trade-weighted dollar, it can dampen GDP growth by about half a percentage point.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779944396222653160,
      "text": "Stronger dollar dampens overall business investment and inflation.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779944396230516853,
      "text": "The US consumer is buying more but at deeper discounts this holiday season.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779944396241841527,
      "text": "Big box retailers continue to lose share to internet retailers like Amazon.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779944396246908826,
      "text": "The consumer remains cautious overall.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779944396260587105,
      "text": "A growing share of the population is aging and moving into age cohorts with lower rates of spending.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779944396274768873,
      "text": "The household balance sheet is encouraged, with very little exposure to variable rates.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779944396286452024,
      "text": "As interest rates rise, interest expense on the balance sheet does not eat into disposable income as it has in the past.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779944395702602807,
      "text": "The bank group has the second fewest number of buy ratings among sell-side analysts compared to any other group.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    }
  ],
  "tags": [
    {
      "id": 17723038993598907,
      "slug": "amazon-organization",
      "name": "Amazon",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17730935072642232,
      "slug": "ati-organization",
      "name": "ATI",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038993592412,
      "slug": "blackrock-organization",
      "name": "BlackRock",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17733516524991708,
      "slug": "bloomberg-organization",
      "name": "Bloomberg",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17733515718644388,
      "slug": "charles-schwab-organization",
      "name": "Charles Schwab",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17733541167072741,
      "slug": "cme-organization",
      "name": "CME",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038994424458,
      "slug": "ds-economics-organization",
      "name": "DS Economics",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17724203208547745,
      "slug": "geopolitical-futures-organization",
      "name": "Geopolitical Futures",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17733540916332911,
      "slug": "hsbc-organization",
      "name": "HSBC",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17733541032190235,
      "slug": "imf-organization",
      "name": "IMF",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17733520112039799,
      "slug": "jp-morgan-organization",
      "name": "JP Morgan",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038993591337,
      "slug": "morgan-stanley-organization",
      "name": "Morgan Stanley",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17733540798070517,
      "slug": "nato-organization",
      "name": "NATO",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17733518299933879,
      "slug": "pentagon-organization",
      "name": "Pentagon",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17731280068379391,
      "slug": "sei-organization",
      "name": "SEI",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17724203731392815,
      "slug": "strategas-research-partners-organization",
      "name": "Strategas Research Partners",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17730934742685668,
      "slug": "the-bot-company-organization",
      "name": "The Bot Company",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038994259424,
      "slug": "united-states-congress-organization",
      "name": "United States Congress",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17731227611841853,
      "slug": "united-states-securities-and-exchange-commission-organization",
      "name": "United States Securities and Exchange Commission",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17730925213009728,
      "slug": "us-senate-organization",
      "name": "US Senate",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17724203732281014,
      "slug": "adam-parker-person",
      "name": "Adam Parker",
      "type": "person"
    },
    {
      "id": 17799443407901073,
      "slug": "avril-lavigne-person",
      "name": "Avril Lavigne",
      "type": "person"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038994251761,
      "slug": "bernie-sanders-person",
      "name": "Bernie Sanders",
      "type": "person"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038993607356,
      "slug": "carl-icahn-person",
      "name": "Carl Icahn",
      "type": "person"
    },
    {
      "id": 17730926316287203,
      "slug": "chris-verone-person",
      "name": "Chris Verone",
      "type": "person"
    },
    {
      "id": 17733580539421181,
      "slug": "corey-lewandowski-person",
      "name": "Corey Lewandowski",
      "type": "person"
    },
    {
      "id": 17730925074299867,
      "slug": "david-gurra-person",
      "name": "David Gurra",
      "type": "person"
    },
    {
      "id": 17730930714656520,
      "slug": "diane-swank-person",
      "name": "Diane Swank",
      "type": "person"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038993608245,
      "slug": "donald-trump-person",
      "name": "Donald Trump",
      "type": "person"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038994420632,
      "slug": "ellen-zentner-person",
      "name": "Ellen Zentner",
      "type": "person"
    },
    {
      "id": 17724292769904531,
      "slug": "franklin-d-roosevelt-person",
      "name": "Franklin D. Roosevelt",
      "type": "person"
    },
    {
      "id": 17724203208315101,
      "slug": "george-friedman-person",
      "name": "George Friedman",
      "type": "person"
    },
    {
      "id": 17726727814920624,
      "slug": "hans-redeker-person",
      "name": "Hans Redeker",
      "type": "person"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038994429171,
      "slug": "james-steel-person",
      "name": "James Steel",
      "type": "person"
    },
    {
      "id": 17733580561197781,
      "slug": "kellyanne-conway-person",
      "name": "Kellyanne Conway",
      "type": "person"
    },
    {
      "id": 17733545239083417,
      "slug": "mohamed-el-erian-person",
      "name": "Mohamed El-Erian",
      "type": "person"
    },
    {
      "id": 17726499119710948,
      "slug": "rex-tillerson-person",
      "name": "Rex Tillerson",
      "type": "person"
    },
    {
      "id": 17726723913763132,
      "slug": "ron-bonjean-person",
      "name": "Ron Bonjean",
      "type": "person"
    },
    {
      "id": 17730930280337996,
      "slug": "tom-keen-person",
      "name": "Tom Keen",
      "type": "person"
    },
    {
      "id": 17726724904361309,
      "slug": "trent-lott-person",
      "name": "Trent Lott",
      "type": "person"
    }
  ]
}