Every atomic assertion extracted from the underlying record, ranked by evidence strength.
Oil is currently the big macro driver.
Higher oil prices lead to higher breakeven rates and expectations of higher Treasury and global bond yields.
The Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank want a steeper yield curve to support the financial sector.
Morgan Stanley's fixed income trading revenue almost tripled from a year ago to $1.5 billion.
Alan Greenspan's political skills were instrumental in making the Federal Reserve independent.
People don't expect oil to go up much more than $10 a barrel from current levels.
An OPEC meeting on November 30th in Vienna will give a sense of whether oil production freezes or cuts might happen.
Oil prices are expected to edge higher, at least while there's speculation that OPEC and some big non-OPEC countries curtail supply.
Non-OPEC supply, notably from the U.S., will kick in again and rig count numbers will go up sharply as soon as oil prices rise.
The focus is on Treasury yields and whether there is a shift in regime.
Oil could be one of the catalysts for higher interest rates at the back end of the curve.
Inflation still has a lot of global inertia and spare capacity in the system, both internationally and in the U.S.
The Federal Reserve expects to hit its inflation target over a two-year period.
If inflation (core PCE deflator) moves into the low twos, the bond market is not priced for that scenario.
A major bond market sell-off would be usually disruptive for the U.S. economy.
If the bond market starts selling off sharply, the equity market is going to have a hard time as well.
The dollar weakened a little bit against the 10 major currencies this morning according to the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index.
Traditionally, a stronger dollar is associated with weaker oil and commodity prices because they are priced in dollars.
If oil prices go higher and Treasury yields (e.g., 10-year to 2%) bump up significantly, the dollar will actually benefit, especially versus commodity and EM currencies.
Morgan Stanley's third quarter net revenues were $8.9 billion.
Morgan Stanley's $1 billion fixed income revenue target is in line with management targets after restructuring.
In the ETF markets, volume and liquidity lessens after 4 p.m. until the next morning.
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Investors have put $4 trillion into independent registered investment advisors.
Bond yields have started to quieten down a little bit over the last few days.
The Federal Reserve is balancing many competing forces to maintain full employment and stable prices.
In 2009, the U.S. was losing 800,000 jobs a month.
Last year, the U.S. added almost 3 million jobs.
The Federal Reserve is not of one mind on the definition of full employment.
The U.S. economy could withstand the inflation rate getting to or above the 2% target for a little while because it was below it for so long.
The Federal Reserve would lose a lot of credibility if it were to change the 2% inflation target.
The 2% inflation target should be interpreted as an average, meaning it could be 3% for a few years to average out past lower rates.
Hillary Clinton has focused on economic issues and developed very detailed plans for the future.
Donald Trump seems to be flying by the seat of his pants on economic specifics.
There is scope for improving the corporate tax system, investing more in infrastructure, and improving work-life balance in a fiscally responsible way.
Hillary Clinton's infrastructure plan is fiscally responsible and paid for with corporate tax reform.
Hillary Clinton's infrastructure plan would increase investment by about $500 billion over the first five years.
Congressman David Camp's proposal for corporate tax reform was not too far off the Treasury Department proposal.
Trade agreements can increase the size of the pie but affect who gets which slice.
Too many workers get dislocated as a result of trade, and not enough is done to help them transition or make up for lost income.
The rise in inequality in the U.S. started in the early 1980s.
Investing in infrastructure could possibly bring back some people who have left the labor force.
Economic forces and some corporate decisions have been pulling people apart, with too much profit going to the very top in corporations.
CME Group S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 futures trade nearly 24 hours with great liquidity.
Morgan Stanley cut 25% of its front office staff in the fourth quarter of last year.
Morgan Stanley had said they wanted to target roughly $4 billion in annual revenue after restructuring.
Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News had been expecting about $1.25 billion from Morgan Stanley.
Morgan Stanley achieved a 23% pre-tax margin in its wealth management business this quarter, meeting its goal of 23% to 25%.
Every single bank has beaten earnings expectations.
China has been stealthily letting its trade-weighted index weaken.
Equity markets are not responding to Chinese currency weakness in the same way as before.
Ongoing Chinese currency weakness is expected on an opportunistic basis.
Public investment is a main ingredient in keeping China's growth going.
China has seen an explosion of mortgage lending and housing-related private investment.
China is building up bigger problems and a credit gap that will likely manifest in 2018.
The dollar-peso exchange rate is currently at 18.63.
The Mexican peso has been an incredible proxy for the U.S. presidential election.
The peso's problems are deeper than Donald Trump, and the unresponsiveness of the trade balance to peso weakness has been remarkable.
Alan Greenspan had to reckon with the limits of the Federal Reserve's independence and political pressure early in his tenure.
Richard Darman, budget chief in the White House, criticized Alan Greenspan, suggesting he was like Hitchcock's Psycho.