{
  "kind": "story",
  "slug": "surveillance-economic-decisions-pulling-us-apart-krueger-say-9129940",
  "id": 1779950615009129940,
  "record_id": 1775924375655693562,
  "headline": "Surveillance: Economic Decisions Pulling us Apart, Krueger Says",
  "summary": "",
  "source": "bloomberg-surveillance-podcast",
  "source_url": "https://omny.fm/shows/bloomberg-surveillance/surveillance-economic-decisions-pulling-us-apart-k",
  "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
  "claim_type": null,
  "sentiment": "mixed",
  "significance": "high",
  "claim_count": 104,
  "reading_time_minutes": 9,
  "published_date": "2026-04-11",
  "created_on": "2026-05-28T06:43:34.681932+00:00",
  "claims": [
    {
      "id": 1779950615398374591,
      "text": "Oil is currently the big macro driver.",
      "evidence_type": "direct_quote",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779950615410994910,
      "text": "Higher oil prices lead to higher breakeven rates and expectations of higher Treasury and global bond yields.",
      "evidence_type": "direct_quote",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779950615483997515,
      "text": "The Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank want a steeper yield curve to support the financial sector.",
      "evidence_type": "direct_quote",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779950615580034961,
      "text": "Morgan Stanley's fixed income trading revenue almost tripled from a year ago to $1.5 billion.",
      "evidence_type": "direct_quote",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779950615782076252,
      "text": "Alan Greenspan's political skills were instrumental in making the Federal Reserve independent.",
      "evidence_type": "direct_quote",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779950615426234070,
      "text": "People don't expect oil to go up much more than $10 a barrel from current levels.",
      "evidence_type": "direct_quote",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779950615433348088,
      "text": "An OPEC meeting on November 30th in Vienna will give a sense of whether oil production freezes or cuts might happen.",
      "evidence_type": "direct_quote",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779950615437786224,
      "text": "Oil prices are expected to edge higher, at least while there's speculation that OPEC and some big non-OPEC countries curtail supply.",
      "evidence_type": "direct_quote",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779950615450021259,
      "text": "Non-OPEC supply, notably from the U.S., will kick in again and rig count numbers will go up sharply as soon as oil prices rise.",
      "evidence_type": "direct_quote",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779950615466374239,
      "text": "The focus is on Treasury yields and whether there is a shift in regime.",
      "evidence_type": "direct_quote",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779950615478420420,
      "text": "Oil could be one of the catalysts for higher interest rates at the back end of the curve.",
      "evidence_type": "direct_quote",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779950615486254799,
      "text": "Inflation still has a lot of global inertia and spare capacity in the system, both internationally and in the U.S.",
      "evidence_type": "direct_quote",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779950615499547097,
      "text": "The Federal Reserve expects to hit its inflation target over a two-year period.",
      "evidence_type": "direct_quote",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779950615530396354,
      "text": "If inflation (core PCE deflator) moves into the low twos, the bond market is not priced for that scenario.",
      "evidence_type": "direct_quote",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779950615534572785,
      "text": "A major bond market sell-off would be usually disruptive for the U.S. economy.",
      "evidence_type": "direct_quote",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779950615550009632,
      "text": "If the bond market starts selling off sharply, the equity market is going to have a hard time as well.",
      "evidence_type": "direct_quote",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779950615554345699,
      "text": "The dollar weakened a little bit against the 10 major currencies this morning according to the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index.",
      "evidence_type": "direct_quote",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779950615567123127,
      "text": "Traditionally, a stronger dollar is associated with weaker oil and commodity prices because they are priced in dollars.",
      "evidence_type": "direct_quote",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779950615568633669,
      "text": "If oil prices go higher and Treasury yields (e.g., 10-year to 2%) bump up significantly, the dollar will actually benefit, especially versus commodity and EM currencies.",
      "evidence_type": "direct_quote",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779950615579176769,
      "text": "Morgan Stanley's third quarter net revenues were $8.9 billion.",
      "evidence_type": "direct_quote",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779950615598077515,
      "text": "Morgan Stanley's $1 billion fixed income revenue target is in line with management targets after restructuring.",
      "evidence_type": "direct_quote",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779950615370896590,
      "text": "In the ETF markets, volume and liquidity lessens after 4 p.m. until the next morning.",
      "evidence_type": "direct_quote",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779950615378429624,
      "text": "PDF Spaces in Adobe Acrobat can give clients the full picture with custom intros, audio summaries, and a helpful AI assistant to documents.",
      "evidence_type": "direct_quote",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779950615392761561,
      "text": "Investors have put $4 trillion into independent registered investment advisors.",
      "evidence_type": "direct_quote",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779950615423164238,
      "text": "Bond yields have started to quieten down a little bit over the last few days.",
      "evidence_type": "direct_quote",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779950616114896549,
      "text": "The Federal Reserve is balancing many competing forces to maintain full employment and stable prices.",
      "evidence_type": "direct_quote",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779950616130591124,
      "text": "In 2009, the U.S. was losing 800,000 jobs a month.",
      "evidence_type": "direct_quote",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779950616145381443,
      "text": "Last year, the U.S. added almost 3 million jobs.",
      "evidence_type": "direct_quote",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779950616147387618,
      "text": "The Federal Reserve is not of one mind on the definition of full employment.",
      "evidence_type": "direct_quote",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779950616150816732,
      "text": "The U.S. economy could withstand the inflation rate getting to or above the 2% target for a little while because it was below it for so long.",
      "evidence_type": "direct_quote",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779950616158898449,
      "text": "The Federal Reserve would lose a lot of credibility if it were to change the 2% inflation target.",
      "evidence_type": "direct_quote",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779950616170857677,
      "text": "The 2% inflation target should be interpreted as an average, meaning it could be 3% for a few years to average out past lower rates.",
      "evidence_type": "direct_quote",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779950616190982974,
      "text": "Hillary Clinton has focused on economic issues and developed very detailed plans for the future.",
      "evidence_type": "direct_quote",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779950616197351416,
      "text": "Donald Trump seems to be flying by the seat of his pants on economic specifics.",
      "evidence_type": "direct_quote",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779950616204163064,
      "text": "There is scope for improving the corporate tax system, investing more in infrastructure, and improving work-life balance in a fiscally responsible way.",
      "evidence_type": "direct_quote",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779950616239920652,
      "text": "Hillary Clinton's infrastructure plan is fiscally responsible and paid for with corporate tax reform.",
      "evidence_type": "direct_quote",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779950616250831517,
      "text": "Hillary Clinton's infrastructure plan would increase investment by about $500 billion over the first five years.",
      "evidence_type": "direct_quote",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779950616282039257,
      "text": "Congressman David Camp's proposal for corporate tax reform was not too far off the Treasury Department proposal.",
      "evidence_type": "direct_quote",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779950616298555521,
      "text": "Trade agreements can increase the size of the pie but affect who gets which slice.",
      "evidence_type": "direct_quote",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779950616310459633,
      "text": "Too many workers get dislocated as a result of trade, and not enough is done to help them transition or make up for lost income.",
      "evidence_type": "direct_quote",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779950616322003487,
      "text": "The rise in inequality in the U.S. started in the early 1980s.",
      "evidence_type": "direct_quote",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779950616342528890,
      "text": "Investing in infrastructure could possibly bring back some people who have left the labor force.",
      "evidence_type": "direct_quote",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779950616346838844,
      "text": "Economic forces and some corporate decisions have been pulling people apart, with too much profit going to the very top in corporations.",
      "evidence_type": "direct_quote",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779950615351900028,
      "text": "CME Group S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 futures trade nearly 24 hours with great liquidity.",
      "evidence_type": "direct_quote",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779950615610469366,
      "text": "Morgan Stanley cut 25% of its front office staff in the fourth quarter of last year.",
      "evidence_type": "direct_quote",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779950615622280291,
      "text": "Morgan Stanley had said they wanted to target roughly $4 billion in annual revenue after restructuring.",
      "evidence_type": "direct_quote",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779950615626194841,
      "text": "Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News had been expecting about $1.25 billion from Morgan Stanley.",
      "evidence_type": "direct_quote",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779950615638840853,
      "text": "Morgan Stanley achieved a 23% pre-tax margin in its wealth management business this quarter, meeting its goal of 23% to 25%.",
      "evidence_type": "direct_quote",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779950615654168009,
      "text": "Every single bank has beaten earnings expectations.",
      "evidence_type": "direct_quote",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779950615658782998,
      "text": "China has been stealthily letting its trade-weighted index weaken.",
      "evidence_type": "direct_quote",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779950615663652905,
      "text": "Equity markets are not responding to Chinese currency weakness in the same way as before.",
      "evidence_type": "direct_quote",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779950615670847460,
      "text": "Ongoing Chinese currency weakness is expected on an opportunistic basis.",
      "evidence_type": "direct_quote",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779950615694347832,
      "text": "Public investment is a main ingredient in keeping China's growth going.",
      "evidence_type": "direct_quote",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779950615698036084,
      "text": "China has seen an explosion of mortgage lending and housing-related private investment.",
      "evidence_type": "direct_quote",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779950615719302703,
      "text": "China is building up bigger problems and a credit gap that will likely manifest in 2018.",
      "evidence_type": "direct_quote",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779950615723906439,
      "text": "The dollar-peso exchange rate is currently at 18.63.",
      "evidence_type": "direct_quote",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779950615726905110,
      "text": "The Mexican peso has been an incredible proxy for the U.S. presidential election.",
      "evidence_type": "direct_quote",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779950615742686053,
      "text": "The peso's problems are deeper than Donald Trump, and the unresponsiveness of the trade balance to peso weakness has been remarkable.",
      "evidence_type": "direct_quote",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779950615760657374,
      "text": "Alan Greenspan had to reckon with the limits of the Federal Reserve's independence and political pressure early in his tenure.",
      "evidence_type": "direct_quote",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 1779950615774211944,
      "text": "Richard Darman, budget chief in the White House, criticized Alan Greenspan, suggesting he was like Hitchcock's Psycho.",
      "evidence_type": "direct_quote",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-04-11"
    }
  ],
  "tags": [
    {
      "id": 17730924945497042,
      "slug": "adobe-acrobat-studio-organization",
      "name": "Adobe Acrobat Studio",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038993590356,
      "slug": "bank-of-japan-organization",
      "name": "Bank of Japan",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17733516524991708,
      "slug": "bloomberg-organization",
      "name": "Bloomberg",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17730924962898617,
      "slug": "bloomberg-intelligence-organization",
      "name": "Bloomberg Intelligence",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17733520254105883,
      "slug": "bloomberg-news-organization",
      "name": "Bloomberg News",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17733545404353430,
      "slug": "bloomberg-surveillance-podcast-organization",
      "name": "bloomberg-surveillance-podcast",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17733573458714204,
      "slug": "bush-administration-organization",
      "name": "Bush administration",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17733515718644388,
      "slug": "charles-schwab-organization",
      "name": "Charles Schwab",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17733541167072741,
      "slug": "cme-organization",
      "name": "CME",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17730925134563897,
      "slug": "council-of-economic-advisors-organization",
      "name": "Council of Economic Advisors",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038993750800,
      "slug": "council-on-foreign-relations-organization",
      "name": "Council on Foreign Relations",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038993591871,
      "slug": "deutsche-bank-organization",
      "name": "Deutsche Bank",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038993590179,
      "slug": "european-central-bank-organization",
      "name": "European Central Bank",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038993590095,
      "slug": "federal-reserve-organization",
      "name": "Federal Reserve",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17733517042969892,
      "slug": "fomc-organization",
      "name": "FOMC",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17733575929268515,
      "slug": "george-h-w-bush-administration-organization",
      "name": "George H.W. Bush administration",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17733520120687671,
      "slug": "house-ways-and-means-committee-organization",
      "name": "House Ways and Means Committee",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038993598014,
      "slug": "international-monetary-fund-organization",
      "name": "International Monetary Fund",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038993593028,
      "slug": "invesco-organization",
      "name": "Invesco",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038993591337,
      "slug": "morgan-stanley-organization",
      "name": "Morgan Stanley",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038993603626,
      "slug": "new-york-times-organization",
      "name": "New York Times",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038995093606,
      "slug": "obama-administration-organization",
      "name": "Obama Administration",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17733518048741536,
      "slug": "okta-organization",
      "name": "Okta",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17733517271539092,
      "slug": "opec-organization",
      "name": "OPEC",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038993700481,
      "slug": "princeton-university-organization",
      "name": "Princeton University",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17733541319136431,
      "slug": "the-hartford-organization",
      "name": "The Hartford",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17733542527147801,
      "slug": "the-telegraph-organization",
      "name": "The Telegraph",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038993888605,
      "slug": "usa-today-organization",
      "name": "USA Today",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17733520065421709,
      "slug": "u-s-congress-organization",
      "name": "U.S. Congress",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17730927212680263,
      "slug": "u-s-trade-representative-organization",
      "name": "U.S. Trade Representative",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038993602287,
      "slug": "us-treasury-organization",
      "name": "US Treasury",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038993597922,
      "slug": "world-bank-organization",
      "name": "World Bank",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038994284696,
      "slug": "alan-greenspan-person",
      "name": "Alan Greenspan",
      "type": "person"
    },
    {
      "id": 17724203465687782,
      "slug": "alan-krueger-person",
      "name": "Alan Krueger",
      "type": "person"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038994420270,
      "slug": "alan-ruskin-person",
      "name": "Alan Ruskin",
      "type": "person"
    },
    {
      "id": 17724202720480315,
      "slug": "alison-williams-person",
      "name": "Alison Williams",
      "type": "person"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038993689721,
      "slug": "barack-obama-person",
      "name": "Barack Obama",
      "type": "person"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038993992951,
      "slug": "ben-bernanke-person",
      "name": "Ben Bernanke",
      "type": "person"
    },
    {
      "id": 17730925074299867,
      "slug": "david-gurra-person",
      "name": "David Gurra",
      "type": "person"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038993608245,
      "slug": "donald-trump-person",
      "name": "Donald Trump",
      "type": "person"
    }
  ]
}