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WRV 11 May 2026

ocbc-macro-views economics-business-work May 11, 2026 source →
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WRV 11 May 2026

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Every atomic assertion extracted from the underlying record, ranked by evidence strength.

Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) now expects "a significantly higher CPI path."

direct_quotestatedeconomics-business-workMay 11, 2026

Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) indicated it is "ready to take necessary actions to take CPI back to target."

direct_quotestatedeconomics-business-workMay 11, 2026

President Trump called Iran's response "totally unacceptable."

direct_quotestatedeconomics-business-workMay 11, 2026

Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) warned that the "inflation outlook has deteriorated further," with "signs of further broadening of underlying price pressures."

direct_quotestatedeconomics-business-workMay 11, 2026

President Donald Trump and Iran rejected each other's latest proposals to end the 10-week conflict, underscoring the fragility of the current ceasefire and keeping risks elevated for global markets.

paraphrasestatedeconomics-business-workMay 11, 2026

President Donald Trump will visit China on May 13-15, marking the first US presidential visit in nearly nine years.

paraphrasestatedeconomics-business-workMay 11, 2026

Challenger job-cut announcements in the US rose 38% MoM to 83k in April 2026.

paraphrasemeasuredeconomics-business-workMay 11, 2026

The US economy added 115k jobs in April 2026, well above expectations of 65k, but slower than the upwardly revised 185k increase in the previous month.

paraphrasemeasuredeconomics-business-workMay 11, 2026

Singapore's retail sales may cool slightly in the coming months as consumer confidence is weighed down by the prolonged Iran war and closure of the Strait of Hormuz, translating into more cautious business sentiments and cost increases.

paraphrasestatedeconomics-business-workMay 11, 2026

The US unemployment rate held steady at 4.3% in April 2026.

paraphrasemeasuredeconomics-business-workMay 11, 2026

US labor force participation was 61.8% in April 2026, down slightly from 61.9% in March.

paraphrasemeasuredeconomics-business-workMay 11, 2026

Average hourly earnings in the US rose 3.6% YoY in April 2026, up from 3.4% in March.

paraphrasemeasuredeconomics-business-workMay 11, 2026

The tech sector accounted for the largest share of US job cuts in April 2026, driven by AI-driven restructuring for the second straight month.

paraphrasestatedeconomics-business-workMay 11, 2026

US consumer sentiment weakened, with the preliminary University of Michigan index falling to 48.2 in May 2026.

paraphrasemeasuredeconomics-business-workMay 11, 2026

Weakening US consumer sentiment in May 2026 reflected concerns over gasoline prices and tariffs.

paraphrasestatedeconomics-business-workMay 11, 2026

US 1-year inflation expectations eased to 4.5% in May 2026 from 4.7% in April, and longer-term expectations fell to 3.4% from 3.5%.

paraphrasemeasuredeconomics-business-workMay 11, 2026

Singapore's March retail sales rose 4.8% YoY (3.7% MoM SA), exceeding OCBC's forecast of 3.2% YoY and Bloomberg's consensus forecast of 3.8% YoY.

paraphrasemeasuredeconomics-business-workMay 11, 2026

Singapore's March retail sales growth of 4.8% YoY was a moderation from the robust 8.3% YoY (-4.3% MoM SA) reading seen in February, which coincided with the Chinese New Year holiday season.

paraphrasemeasuredeconomics-business-workMay 11, 2026

Motor vehicle sales in Singapore rebounded 12.9% YoY in March after contracting 7.8% YoY in February.

paraphrasemeasuredeconomics-business-workMay 11, 2026

Excluding motor vehicles, parts & accessories, Singapore's retail sales rose 3.3% YoY (3.3% MoM sa) in March, a slowdown from 11.3% YoY in February 2026.

paraphrasemeasuredeconomics-business-workMay 11, 2026

Key drivers of Singapore's retail sales in March, apart from auto-related items, were recreational goods (13.1% YoY), computer & telecommunications equipment (11.9% YoY), and watches & jewelry (6.2% YoY).

paraphrasemeasuredeconomics-business-workMay 11, 2026

Petrol service station sales in Singapore climbed 4.0% YoY in March, skewed by higher petrol prices attributable to the Iran war.

paraphrasemeasuredeconomics-business-workMay 11, 2026

China's exports accelerated sharply to 14.1% YoY in April from 2.5% in March.

paraphrasemeasuredeconomics-business-workMay 11, 2026

China's imports surged 25.3% YoY in April.

paraphrasemeasuredeconomics-business-workMay 11, 2026

China's exports to the US returned to positive growth, rising 11.3% YoY in April ahead of Trump's China visit.

paraphrasemeasuredeconomics-business-workMay 11, 2026

The positive growth in China's exports to the US was partly driven by a favourable base effect, as US-bound shipments had fallen into deep contraction after reciprocal tariffs took effect in early April last year.

paraphrasestatedeconomics-business-workMay 11, 2026

Resilient demand for AI-related products remained an important structural tailwind for China's exports.

paraphrasestatedeconomics-business-workMay 11, 2026

China's CPI rose 0.3% MoM in March and 1.2% YoY.

paraphrasemeasuredeconomics-business-workMay 11, 2026

China's PPI accelerated to 2.8% YoY.

paraphrasemeasuredeconomics-business-workMay 11, 2026

The acceleration in China's PPI is concentrated at the very top of the production chain.

paraphrasestatedeconomics-business-workMay 11, 2026

China's PPI consumption related fell by 0.1% MoM while PPI production related jumped by 2.1% MoM.

paraphrasemeasuredeconomics-business-workMay 11, 2026

Hong Kong's retail sales grew by 12.8% YoY in value terms and 9.8% in volume terms in March.

paraphrasemeasuredeconomics-business-workMay 11, 2026

The headline strength in Hong Kong's retail sales was partly distorted by a front-loading effect ahead of the expiry of electric private car first-registration tax concessions at the end of March.

paraphrasestatedeconomics-business-workMay 11, 2026

Sales of "jewellery, watches and valuable gifts" and "electrical goods" in Hong Kong recorded solid growth of 27.2% YoY and 30.1% YoY respectively, reflecting improved consumer confidence and tourism-related spending.

paraphrasemeasuredeconomics-business-workMay 11, 2026

Momentum in Hong Kong's consumption is increasingly underpinned by cyclical recovery.

paraphrasestatedeconomics-business-workMay 11, 2026

Solid underlying economic fundamentals, further recovery in the tourism sector, and ongoing sales promotion initiatives are expected to provide further support to Hong Kong's retail activities.

paraphrasestatedeconomics-business-workMay 11, 2026

Higher fuel costs and a weaker Hong Kong dollar are likely to discourage outbound travel by residents, helping to contain retail spending leakage.

paraphrasestatedeconomics-business-workMay 11, 2026

OCBC Group Research expects Hong Kong's retail sales to register a mild increase of around 4-6% in 2026, reflecting a steady and broad-based recovery in consumption sentiment.

paraphrasestatedeconomics-business-workMay 11, 2026

Hong Kong's economy grew by the fastest pace since 2021, with real GDP growth accelerating to 5.9% YoY in 1Q26, up sharply from 4.0% in 4Q25 and significantly above the market consensus at 3.5%.

paraphrasemeasuredeconomics-business-workMay 11, 2026

On a seasonally adjusted basis, Hong Kong's economy grew by 2.9% QoQ in 1Q26, up from 1.1% QoQ in 4Q25.

paraphrasemeasuredeconomics-business-workMay 11, 2026

The upside surprise in Hong Kong's 1Q26 GDP was primarily driven by a broad-based strengthening in domestic demand, led by private consumption and fixed investment.

paraphrasestatedeconomics-business-workMay 11, 2026

Hong Kong's private consumption expanded by 5.0% YoY in 1Q26, up from 2.5% YoY in 4Q25.

paraphrasemeasuredeconomics-business-workMay 11, 2026

Hong Kong's gross domestic fixed capital formation expanded by 17.7% YoY in 1Q26, up from 11.7% YoY in 4Q25.

paraphrasemeasuredeconomics-business-workMay 11, 2026

Private consumption contributed approximately 3.3 percentage points and gross domestic fixed capital formation contributed 2.7 percentage points to Hong Kong's headline GDP growth in 1Q26.

paraphrasemeasuredeconomics-business-workMay 11, 2026

External trade dynamics detracted materially from Hong Kong's GDP growth in 1Q26.

paraphrasestatedeconomics-business-workMay 11, 2026

Hong Kong's goods exports grew by 23.8% YoY and services exports by 3.5% YoY in 1Q26.

paraphrasemeasuredeconomics-business-workMay 11, 2026

Hong Kong's imports rose by 29.9% YoY in 1Q26.

paraphrasemeasuredeconomics-business-workMay 11, 2026

Net exports subtracted 9.0 percentage points from Hong Kong's GDP growth in 1Q26.

paraphrasemeasuredeconomics-business-workMay 11, 2026

Hong Kong's government consumption growth edged up to 2.9% YoY from 1.5%, contributing 0.4 percentage points to overall growth in 1Q26.

paraphrasemeasuredeconomics-business-workMay 11, 2026

OCBC Group Research revised up its full-year 2026 GDP growth forecast for Hong Kong to 3.4%, acknowledging that external risks remain tilted to the downside should geopolitical tensions intensify or persist.

paraphrasestatedeconomics-business-workMay 11, 2026

Indonesia's 1Q26 GDP growth surprised to the upside at 5.6% YoY, driven by continued strength in domestic demand.

paraphrasemeasuredeconomics-business-workMay 11, 2026

Domestic final demand contributed 6.1 percentage points to Indonesia's headline GDP in 1Q26, with government consumption providing the biggest boost at 21.8% (versus 4.5% in 4Q25).

paraphrasemeasuredeconomics-business-workMay 11, 2026

Higher disbursement rates across various social assistance, capital expenditures, and subsidy spending, along with government support for households during Hari Raya festivities, supported Indonesia's consumption in 1Q26.

paraphrasestatedeconomics-business-workMay 11, 2026

Indonesia's household consumption growth improved to 5.5% YoY in 1Q26 versus 5.1% in 4Q25, supported by relatively well-contained inflation and government measures.

paraphrasemeasuredeconomics-business-workMay 11, 2026

The scope for the Indonesian government to continue to lift growth in coming quarters is limited as the fiscal deficit limit of 3% of GDP becomes increasingly binding.

paraphrasestatedeconomics-business-workMay 11, 2026

Indonesia's full-year 2026 fiscal deficit is tracking 3.7% of GDP at the current fiscal run rate.

paraphrasemeasuredeconomics-business-workMay 11, 2026

The drag from external uncertainties manifested in a negative contribution of net exports (-1.2pp in 1Q26 versus 0.0pp in 4Q25) to Indonesia's GDP.

paraphrasemeasuredeconomics-business-workMay 11, 2026

OCBC Group Research remains comfortable with its full-year 2026 GDP growth forecast of 5% for Indonesia.

paraphrasestatedeconomics-business-workMay 11, 2026

Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) kept the policy rate unchanged at 2.75%.

paraphrasestatedeconomics-business-workMay 11, 2026

Bank Negara Malaysia's official statement struck a cautious tone, suggesting it was modestly more concerned about growth versus inflation.

paraphrasestatedeconomics-business-workMay 11, 2026