← Stories · Brief

Weekly Research Briefing: Bring on the Heat

hamilton-lane-insights economics-business-work May 12, 2026 source →
Claims
113
Domain
economics-business-work
Reading time
8 min
Record
Weekly Research Briefing: Bring on the Heat

Claims from this story

Every atomic assertion extracted from the underlying record, ranked by evidence strength.

McDonald's CEO Chris Kempczinski stated that higher gas prices linked to the Iran war were disproportionately hurting low income consumers.

direct_quotestatedeconomics-business-workMay 12, 2026

If the Russians have nothing to show for their efforts, things might start crumbling in some places.

direct_quotestatedeconomics-business-workMay 12, 2026

This level of industry decline is similar to what was observed during the global financial crisis and even higher than during other recessionary periods.

direct_quotestatedeconomics-business-workMay 12, 2026

S&P 500 forward earnings has been rising at an accelerating pace.

paraphrasestatedeconomics-business-workMay 12, 2026

The world has burned through oil inventories at a record speed as the Iran war throttles flows from the Persian Gulf.

paraphrasestatedeconomics-business-workMay 12, 2026

The capital markets are lining up a solid list of private companies to go public.

paraphrasestatedeconomics-business-workMay 12, 2026

Corporate cash use is shifting toward capex and acquisitions, and away from stock repurchases and dividends.

paraphrasestatedeconomics-business-workMay 12, 2026

Losses of Russian soldiers are running at 35,000 a month.

paraphrasestatedeconomics-business-workMay 12, 2026

Consumer-facing stocks are significantly underperforming the market right now.

paraphrasestatedeconomics-business-workMay 12, 2026

This could create opportunities for those investors wanting to build a return to normal oil price stock basket or even for a GP looking to acquire one of their most favorite brands.

paraphrasestatedeconomics-business-workMay 12, 2026

Many names are expected in the news through month-end as IPO buyers scramble to get the shares they want.

paraphrasestatedeconomics-business-workMay 12, 2026

Any big gains will fuel the future mega-AI IPO listings expected later this summer and into year-end.

paraphrasestatedeconomics-business-workMay 12, 2026

A Super El Niño is building in the Pacific Ocean which will scramble the earth's weather for the next 18 months.

paraphrasestatedeconomics-business-workMay 12, 2026

Temperatures are forecast to top 90 degrees for 60 million people and 100 degrees for 13 million more.

paraphrasestatedeconomics-business-workMay 12, 2026

The most important thing in the market right now remains earnings outlooks which continue to move higher.

paraphrasestatedeconomics-business-workMay 12, 2026

Upward revisions to consensus 2026 and 2027 earnings estimates have been impressive, as companies have been reporting stronger-than-expected earnings results.

paraphrasestatedeconomics-business-workMay 12, 2026

The consensus 2027 estimate for S&P 500 earnings is already at $386.70.

paraphrasestatedeconomics-business-workMay 12, 2026

Rising earnings expectations are broadening out into the middle and smaller cap companies in recent weeks.

paraphrasestatedeconomics-business-workMay 12, 2026

Cash spending forecasts point to a continuation of the trend toward investing for growth.

paraphrasestatedeconomics-business-workMay 12, 2026

S&P 500 capex spending is forecasted to be $2 trillion in 2026, a 33% increase vs. 2025.

paraphrasestatedeconomics-business-workMay 12, 2026

Cash M&A should grow by +80% in 2026.

paraphrasestatedeconomics-business-workMay 12, 2026

In 2027, a slowing pace of hyperscaler capex growth is expected to cause a deceleration in aggregate S&P 500 capex spending.

paraphrasestatedeconomics-business-workMay 12, 2026

Investors are in a rewarding mood for those investing into new growth areas right now.

paraphrasestatedeconomics-business-workMay 12, 2026

Hyperscaler CapEx is expected to grow 60-70% this year.

paraphrasestatedeconomics-business-workMay 12, 2026

This rapid expansion in CapEx spending is driving strong price momentum, and economic and earnings growth.

paraphrasestatedeconomics-business-workMay 12, 2026

S&P 500 companies tied to AI were spending roughly $550 billion on R&D and CapEx in 2023.

paraphrasestatedeconomics-business-workMay 12, 2026

Spending by S&P 500 companies tied to AI is now expected to grow to $1.3-1.4 trillion over the next year.

paraphrasestatedeconomics-business-workMay 12, 2026

If spending from all players including adjacent industries is included, annual tech investments should be over $2 trillion.

paraphrasestatedeconomics-business-workMay 12, 2026

By 2027, spending will likely approach levels comparable to global military spending.

paraphrasestatedeconomics-business-workMay 12, 2026

Roughly 20% of S&P 500 companies are tied to tech hardware and semis, benefiting from the spending.

paraphrasestatedeconomics-business-workMay 12, 2026

Hyperscalers plus a few private players are driving >80% of the CapEx spending.

paraphrasestatedeconomics-business-workMay 12, 2026

Companies should earn a significant ROI when new compute capacity comes online.

paraphrasestatedeconomics-business-workMay 12, 2026

The market is really rewarding the makers of the picks and shovels right now.

paraphrasestatedeconomics-business-workMay 12, 2026

Texas Instruments and NXP both issued upbeat guidance for the current quarter.

paraphrasestatedeconomics-business-workMay 12, 2026

Texas Instruments is set to launch its second round of price hikes this year.

paraphrasestatedeconomics-business-workMay 12, 2026

NXP is reportedly preparing an increase as soon as June.

paraphrasestatedeconomics-business-workMay 12, 2026

TI attributes the price increases to market conditions and rising supply chain costs.

paraphrasestatedeconomics-business-workMay 12, 2026

The rapidly shrinking stockpiles mean that the risk of even more extreme price spikes and shortages is getting ever-closer.

paraphrasestatedeconomics-business-workMay 12, 2026

More than a billion barrels of supply have been lost two months into the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

paraphrasestatedeconomics-business-workMay 12, 2026

The University of Michigan's index of consumer sentiment declined by 1.6pt to 48.2 in the May preliminary report.

paraphrasestatedeconomics-business-workMay 12, 2026

This level (48.2) would be the lowest in the survey's history if it holds in the final report.

paraphrasestatedeconomics-business-workMay 12, 2026

About one-third of consumers spontaneously mentioned gasoline prices.

paraphrasestatedeconomics-business-workMay 12, 2026

Consumers continue to feel buffeted by cost pressures, led by soaring prices at the pump.

paraphrasestatedeconomics-business-workMay 12, 2026

Middle East developments are unlikely to meaningfully boost sentiment until supply disruptions have been fully resolved and energy prices fall.

paraphrasestatedeconomics-business-workMay 12, 2026

Overall foot traffic to restaurants was down approximately 1.9% in the quarter, per Black Box.

paraphrasestatedeconomics-business-workMay 12, 2026

McDonald's warned of a weak start to its second quarter.

paraphrasestatedeconomics-business-workMay 12, 2026

Several U.S. restaurant chains such as Shake Shack, Papa John's, Wingstop and Domino's have reported weaker quarterly sales growth, citing a fallout from the Iran war.

paraphrasestatedeconomics-business-workMay 12, 2026

The weak housing market had a hand in major negative earnings surprises at Installed Building Products (IBP) and Whirlpool.

paraphrasestatedeconomics-business-workMay 12, 2026

IBP's total residential sales fell 10%.

paraphrasestatedeconomics-business-workMay 12, 2026

Whirlpool's 1Q sales were down 10% y/y.

paraphrasestatedeconomics-business-workMay 12, 2026

The US appliance industry demand declined 7.4% in Q1, with March being down 10%.

paraphrasestatedeconomics-business-workMay 12, 2026

Consumer sentiment has dropped to its lowest level in 50 years.

paraphrasestatedeconomics-business-workMay 12, 2026

The war in Iran amplified consumer concerns about the cost of living.

paraphrasestatedeconomics-business-workMay 12, 2026

The consumer sentiment index in the US plunged, reaching the lowest level on record in March.

paraphrasestatedeconomics-business-workMay 12, 2026

Whirlpool's cash crunch has gotten so severe that it is suspending its dividend payment until further notice.

paraphrasestatedeconomics-business-workMay 12, 2026

Whirlpool had paid a dividend through 10 U.S. recessions and every global crisis since the 1950s.

paraphrasestatedeconomics-business-workMay 12, 2026

Whirlpool's shares plunged more than 20% before settling down 12% on Thursday.

paraphrasestatedeconomics-business-workMay 12, 2026

Whirlpool's stock has dropped more than 80% over the past five years.

paraphrasestatedeconomics-business-workMay 12, 2026

Whirlpool blames the Iran war for driving U.S. consumer confidence to 50-year lows.

paraphrasestatedeconomics-business-workMay 12, 2026

Data center construction spending remains strong, with the lead over general office construction widening.

paraphrasestatedeconomics-business-workMay 12, 2026