{
  "kind": "story",
  "slug": "the-week-ahead-iran-oil-and-the-central-bank-response-3258227",
  "id": 1780158874053258227,
  "record_id": 1780121826789708037,
  "headline": "The Week Ahead - Iran, Oil, and the Central Bank Response",
  "summary": "",
  "source": "nomura-week-ahead-podcast",
  "source_url": "https://nomurapodcasts.libsyn.com/the-week-ahead-iran-oil-and-the-central-bank-response",
  "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
  "claim_type": null,
  "sentiment": "mixed",
  "significance": "high",
  "claim_count": 110,
  "reading_time_minutes": 9,
  "published_date": "2026-03-12",
  "created_on": "2026-05-31T18:24:46.176783+00:00",
  "claims": [
    {
      "id": 1780251887001254697,
      "text": "The US is impacted by the bottleneck in the Strait of Hormuz but substantially less than most other developed economies.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-03-12"
    },
    {
      "id": 1780251887162631751,
      "text": "Nomura has raised its 2026 HICP inflation forecast for the euro area by 0.6% to average 2.7% this year.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-03-12"
    },
    {
      "id": 1780251887211497257,
      "text": "A second rationale for the European Central Bank to raise rates is an insurance hike to prevent inflation expectations from de-anchoring.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-03-12"
    },
    {
      "id": 1780251887266202865,
      "text": "Nomura now expects core CPI (all items excluding fresh food) for Japan in FY2026 to come in at 2.6% year-on-year.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-03-12"
    },
    {
      "id": 1780251887490341145,
      "text": "Nomura does not expect rate hikes next week from the central banks in Indonesia, Taiwan, or Australia.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-03-12"
    },
    {
      "id": 1780251886962816677,
      "text": "Fresh headlines are coming thick and fast, setting a tricky backdrop for central banks meeting next week.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-03-12"
    },
    {
      "id": 1780251886970213813,
      "text": "A key uncertainty for central banks is the unknown duration of the Middle East conflict.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-03-12"
    },
    {
      "id": 1780251886974085988,
      "text": "The Iran situation remains extremely fluid, with a lot of uncertainty over the administration's objectives.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-03-12"
    },
    {
      "id": 1780251886978484176,
      "text": "President Donald Trump appears to be looking for an off-ramp for the conflict and a potential way to de-escalate.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-03-12"
    },
    {
      "id": 1780251886996589271,
      "text": "It is not clear that the Iranian side is prepared to step down their provocations in the region.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-03-12"
    },
    {
      "id": 1780251887009895417,
      "text": "The US is a net energy exporter with ample domestic supply of crude and sufficient domestic refining capacity.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-03-12"
    },
    {
      "id": 1780251887010427203,
      "text": "The US does not depend on barrels from the Middle East.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-03-12"
    },
    {
      "id": 1780251887014688336,
      "text": "The price of oil will still be a headwind for US consumers.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-03-12"
    },
    {
      "id": 1780251887022043968,
      "text": "A long-lived increase in energy prices actually has a positive offset in the US by incentivizing domestic production and investment.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-03-12"
    },
    {
      "id": 1780251887026330857,
      "text": "US shale drilling has a relatively fast investment cycle and can be a reactive source of global supply to price increases.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-03-12"
    },
    {
      "id": 1780251887030340081,
      "text": "The US is relatively insulated from global gas markets due to ample domestic natural gas supplies and little interconnectedness with the rest of the world.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-03-12"
    },
    {
      "id": 1780251887034990991,
      "text": "About 15 billion cubic feet per day of export capacity exists through LNG, but this is a small fraction of the US market.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-03-12"
    },
    {
      "id": 1780251887038224080,
      "text": "Most US natural gas production remains captive domestically, limiting pressure on residential natural gas prices and electricity prices.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-03-12"
    },
    {
      "id": 1780251887042650355,
      "text": "Incentives for more shale oil drilling create more domestic gas supply as a byproduct.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-03-12"
    },
    {
      "id": 1780251887046838403,
      "text": "A rising share of US natural gas is produced associated with oil drilling.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-03-12"
    },
    {
      "id": 1780251887050130342,
      "text": "There will be some headline inflation impact in the US from additional supply pressures in fertilizer or metals.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-03-12"
    },
    {
      "id": 1780251887058159774,
      "text": "Unlike other economies, US consumers and businesses are relatively well insulated from acute price pressures from Middle East supply.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-03-12"
    },
    {
      "id": 1780251887063663977,
      "text": "The decision for the Federal Reserve to stay on hold has been well telegraphed.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-03-12"
    },
    {
      "id": 1780251887067198553,
      "text": "There are likely to be a handful of dissents from dovish governors at the upcoming FOMC meeting.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-03-12"
    },
    {
      "id": 1780251887070411239,
      "text": "The majority of FOMC voters think policy is in a good place.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-03-12"
    },
    {
      "id": 1780251887075857102,
      "text": "Recent data shows a return to a stagflationary narrative, with risks to both sides of the Federal Reserve's mandate.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-03-12"
    },
    {
      "id": 1780251887079983591,
      "text": "The disappointment in the February NFP report will bring labor market concerns back to the forefront.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-03-12"
    },
    {
      "id": 1780251887081195693,
      "text": "It is getting harder to ignore signs of lingering inflation pressure.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-03-12"
    },
    {
      "id": 1780251887086754216,
      "text": "The CPI report for February was relatively mild on headline and core numbers.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-03-12"
    },
    {
      "id": 1780251887094495390,
      "text": "Details of the CPI report suggest another very strong core PCE reading in February.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-03-12"
    },
    {
      "id": 1780251887096899475,
      "text": "Nomura expects a third consecutive 0.4% month-on-month increase for core PCE.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-03-12"
    },
    {
      "id": 1780251887098583613,
      "text": "Global memory shortages are increasingly pushing up prices of consumer electronics.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-03-12"
    },
    {
      "id": 1780251887102809783,
      "text": "There are risks that global memory shortages can impact the auto sector.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-03-12"
    },
    {
      "id": 1780251887103526439,
      "text": "An earlier rise in commodity prices, particularly industrial metals, through late 2025 and early 2026, can pass through into goods prices.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-03-12"
    },
    {
      "id": 1780251887106745278,
      "text": "The Federal Reserve will be very cautious about building inflationary pressure.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-03-12"
    },
    {
      "id": 1780251887111355976,
      "text": "The Federal Reserve will retain its easing bias for now and hold serve on policy communications.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-03-12"
    },
    {
      "id": 1780251887115460057,
      "text": "The Federal Reserve will increasingly acknowledge two-sided risks and insist they are prepared to act as needed.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-03-12"
    },
    {
      "id": 1780251887120973632,
      "text": "Europe's economy is significantly impacted by the Iran oil uncertainty, unlike the US.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-03-12"
    },
    {
      "id": 1780251887125293168,
      "text": "There is a high contemporaneous correlation between Brent spot prices and the fuels and lubricants component of inflation.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-03-12"
    },
    {
      "id": 1780251887130863182,
      "text": "The weight of the fuels and lubricants component in the inflation basket is about 4%.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-03-12"
    },
    {
      "id": 1780251887136314866,
      "text": "Large swings driven by volatile changes in crude oil prices can markedly add to headline inflation.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-03-12"
    },
    {
      "id": 1780251887142707786,
      "text": "In March 2022, Brent crude oil rose by about 21% month-on-month.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-03-12"
    },
    {
      "id": 1780251887146822780,
      "text": "The fuels and lubricants component rose by about 16% month-on-month in March 2022.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-03-12"
    },
    {
      "id": 1780251887150939289,
      "text": "This contributed about 0.6 percentage points to headline HICP for March 2022.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-03-12"
    },
    {
      "id": 1780251887155883865,
      "text": "Nomura thinks March 2026 inflation for Europe will be heavily impacted by the rise in crude oil prices.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-03-12"
    },
    {
      "id": 1780251887158307985,
      "text": "March 2026 HICP could be about 0.4 to 0.6 percentage points higher relative to the baseline prior to the conflict.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-03-12"
    },
    {
      "id": 1780251887171070169,
      "text": "The pass-through of crude oil price changes to fuels and lubricants is slightly less in the UK due to tax acting as a buffer.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-03-12"
    },
    {
      "id": 1780251887174202225,
      "text": "The European Central Bank's interpretation of recent developments depends on the persistence of recent moves and the realization of futures curves.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-03-12"
    },
    {
      "id": 1780251887182276105,
      "text": "If the conflict endures for much longer, the European Central Bank might get anxious.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-03-12"
    },
    {
      "id": 1780251887185812078,
      "text": "Nomura expects no change in European Central Bank policy at the upcoming March meeting.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-03-12"
    },
    {
      "id": 1780251887190147355,
      "text": "The key focus for the European Central Bank will be on scenario analysis and sensitivity analysis for inflation and growth under different oil and gas futures assumptions.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-03-12"
    },
    {
      "id": 1780251887194712779,
      "text": "Markets are currently pricing rate hikes for the European Central Bank for this year and next year.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-03-12"
    },
    {
      "id": 1780251887207125235,
      "text": "There is a risk that the European Central Bank could raise rates this year in response to the Iran conflict if it endures.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-03-12"
    },
    {
      "id": 1780251887210739632,
      "text": "One rationale for the European Central Bank to raise rates is if the medium-term view on inflation changes due to a prolonged conflict.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-03-12"
    },
    {
      "id": 1780251887214187417,
      "text": "The June meeting would be the earliest point for the European Central Bank to consider an insurance rate hike.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-03-12"
    },
    {
      "id": 1780251887219775961,
      "text": "The Bank of England is also very concerned about the Iran conflict's impact on medium-term inflation.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-03-12"
    },
    {
      "id": 1780251887234857592,
      "text": "The Bank of England was in its cutting phase prior to the conflict, unlike the European Central Bank which has rates at neutral.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-03-12"
    },
    {
      "id": 1780251887236623303,
      "text": "Nomura had expected a March rate cut from the Bank of England but has pushed it back to April.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-03-12"
    },
    {
      "id": 1780251887238575153,
      "text": "Recent market volatility and uncertainty will make the Bank of England cautious.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-03-12"
    },
    {
      "id": 1780251887242878390,
      "text": "Japan is an oil importer, making it vulnerable to global oil price developments.",
      "evidence_type": "paraphrase",
      "confidence": "stated",
      "home_domain": "economics-business-work",
      "published_date": "2026-03-12"
    }
  ],
  "tags": [
    {
      "id": 17724181958978768,
      "slug": "bank-indonesia-organization",
      "name": "Bank Indonesia",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038993590275,
      "slug": "bank-of-england-organization",
      "name": "Bank of England",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038993590356,
      "slug": "bank-of-japan-organization",
      "name": "Bank of Japan",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17733516524991708,
      "slug": "bloomberg-organization",
      "name": "Bloomberg",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17733644473864174,
      "slug": "central-bank-of-taiwan-organization",
      "name": "Central Bank of Taiwan",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038993590179,
      "slug": "european-central-bank-organization",
      "name": "European Central Bank",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038993590095,
      "slug": "federal-reserve-organization",
      "name": "Federal Reserve",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17733541629208153,
      "slug": "fitch-organization",
      "name": "Fitch",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038993601039,
      "slug": "moody-s-organization",
      "name": "Moody's",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17733540874885552,
      "slug": "nomura-organization",
      "name": "Nomura",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038993590539,
      "slug": "reserve-bank-of-australia-organization",
      "name": "Reserve Bank of Australia",
      "type": "organization"
    },
    {
      "id": 17801586929533558,
      "slug": "andrew-tysast-person",
      "name": "Andrew Tysast",
      "type": "person"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038993608245,
      "slug": "donald-trump-person",
      "name": "Donald Trump",
      "type": "person"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038995039763,
      "slug": "haidi-stroud-watts-person",
      "name": "Haidi Stroud-Watts",
      "type": "person"
    },
    {
      "id": 17728579952173293,
      "slug": "jeremy-schwartz-person",
      "name": "Jeremy Schwartz",
      "type": "person"
    },
    {
      "id": 17728308005456441,
      "slug": "john-dalton-person",
      "name": "John Dalton",
      "type": "person"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038994130309,
      "slug": "sanae-takaichi-person",
      "name": "Sanae Takaichi",
      "type": "person"
    },
    {
      "id": 17779163152490413,
      "slug": "tamura-naoki-person",
      "name": "TAMURA Naoki",
      "type": "person"
    },
    {
      "id": 17801587992067558,
      "slug": "yuchiro-nozaki-person",
      "name": "Yuchiro Nozaki",
      "type": "person"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038993609671,
      "slug": "australia-place",
      "name": "Australia",
      "type": "place"
    },
    {
      "id": 17730924782689216,
      "slug": "europe-place",
      "name": "Europe",
      "type": "place"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038994069694,
      "slug": "indonesia-place",
      "name": "Indonesia",
      "type": "place"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038993708678,
      "slug": "iran-place",
      "name": "Iran",
      "type": "place"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038993609227,
      "slug": "japan-place",
      "name": "Japan",
      "type": "place"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038993610828,
      "slug": "london-place",
      "name": "London",
      "type": "place"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038993612522,
      "slug": "middle-east-place",
      "name": "Middle East",
      "type": "place"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038993610743,
      "slug": "new-york-place",
      "name": "New York",
      "type": "place"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038993610388,
      "slug": "singapore-place",
      "name": "Singapore",
      "type": "place"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038994415028,
      "slug": "strait-of-hormuz-place",
      "name": "Strait of Hormuz",
      "type": "place"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038993610300,
      "slug": "taiwan-place",
      "name": "Taiwan",
      "type": "place"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038993610924,
      "slug": "tokyo-place",
      "name": "Tokyo",
      "type": "place"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038993609322,
      "slug": "united-kingdom-place",
      "name": "United Kingdom",
      "type": "place"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038993608963,
      "slug": "united-states-place",
      "name": "United States",
      "type": "place"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038993834764,
      "slug": "artificial-intelligence-topic",
      "name": "Artificial Intelligence",
      "type": "topic"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038993835122,
      "slug": "central-bank-policy-topic",
      "name": "Central Bank Policy",
      "type": "topic"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038993835477,
      "slug": "commodities-topic",
      "name": "Commodities",
      "type": "topic"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038993835561,
      "slug": "consumer-prices-topic",
      "name": "Consumer Prices",
      "type": "topic"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038993835647,
      "slug": "consumer-spending-topic",
      "name": "Consumer Spending",
      "type": "topic"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038993836273,
      "slug": "economic-outlook-topic",
      "name": "Economic Outlook",
      "type": "topic"
    },
    {
      "id": 17723038993836809,
      "slug": "fiscal-policy-topic",
      "name": "Fiscal Policy",
      "type": "topic"
    }
  ]
}