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The AI Power Law Era - Issue #28

Q1 2026 venture capital data confirms an "AI Power Law Era," where investment is hyper-concentrated in a few AI firms and deals, with 89% of all U.S. VC dollars flowing to AI. This concentration creates historic abundance for those within the power law, while others face significant market challenges. The SF Bay Area has become a dominant hub, attracting 83% of VC dollars, and critical bottlenecks are emerging in AI compute and energy infrastructure.

mayfield-blog economics-business-work May 2, 2026 source →
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The AI Power Law Era - Issue #28

Claims from this story

Every atomic assertion extracted from the underlying record, ranked by evidence strength.

AI now commands 89% of all US venture deal value.

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The SF Bay Area alone captured 83% of every VC dollar in Q1 2026.

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Andrew Ng states that when software can be built 10x or 100x faster with AI, everything else becomes the bottleneck.

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John Collison believes the reduction in inter-company transaction costs is a bigger effect than internal efficiency gains.

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Avoca's platform answers calls, books jobs, and manages customer communication for trades.

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The Nemotron 3 Nano Omni model combines vision, audio, and language capabilities into a single system.

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OpenAI released Symphony, an open-source spec for orchestrating coding agents.

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Ineffable Intelligence aims to develop systems that learn without human data.

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Aidoc raised $150 million Series E to expand clinical AI deployment across healthcare systems.

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Access to capital is concentrated in a small set of established players.

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The funding supports development of autonomous browsing and retrieval systems for agent workflows.

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The Avoca round was led by Meritech and General Catalyst.

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NVIDIA launched Nemotron 3 Nano Omni, a multimodal model for AI agents.

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The funding will accelerate development of Cortex 2.0 and global go-to-market for predictive, consequence-aware robotic manipulation.

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Liquidity is concentrated at the very top of the market.

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Those outside the power law are navigating a fundamentally different market.

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Microsoft and OpenAI ended their Azure exclusivity agreement.

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Venture is a bifurcated two-speed market.

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Three deals (OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI) accounted for 65% of all capital invested in Q1 2026.

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Ineffable Intelligence was founded by former DeepMind researcher David Silver.

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The author has never seen a single quarter like Q1 2026 in three decades of venture capital and building startups.

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The next generation of iconic companies will be shaped by the forces revealed in the Q1 2026 data.

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Accenture is rolling out Microsoft 365 Copilot to 743,000 employees.

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Parallel Web Systems raised $100 million Series B for AI agent-based search infrastructure.

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$347.3 billion was generated in exits during Q1 2026.

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Avoca raised $125 million Series A to power AI "front-office" automation for home-services businesses.

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Anthropic is exploring a funding round that could value the company above $900 billion.

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Sereact raised $110 million Series B to expand its Cortex AI "brain" for industrial robots.

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The Sereact funding was led by Headline.

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OpenAI secured 10GW of AI compute capacity ahead of its 2029 target.

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Six firms captured 76% of all VC fundraising in Q1 2026.

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OpenAI is increasingly relying on cloud partnerships to scale infrastructure.

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OpenAI added 3GW of compute capacity in the past quarter.

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The shift in exclusivity enables OpenAI to distribute models across multiple clouds.

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The end of exclusivity reshapes enterprise AI competition.

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Meta signed deals for over 1 GW of space-solar power and 100 GWh of long-duration storage for AI data centers.

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Energy is a core bottleneck for AI infrastructure.

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Hyperscalers are securing next-generation power sources to sustain growth.

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NVIDIA's B300 AI servers are now selling for about $1 million each in China.

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Prices for a B300 server loaded with eight Blackwell GPUs have nearly doubled to around 7 million yuan since late 2025 in China.

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$267.2 billion was invested in Q1 2026, which is 83% of all of 2025's investment.

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Ineffable Intelligence raised $1.1 billion to build reinforcement learning-based AI models.

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U.S. spending on power equipment for data centers is forecast to triple to about $65 billion by 2030.

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AI data centers are becoming a dominant buyer of transformers, switchgear, and related gear.

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Electrical infrastructure is turning into a core bottleneck and investment theme for AI expansion.

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LinkedIn's AI recruiting agents are projected to generate $450 million in annual revenue.

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Companies, funds, and geographies inside the power law are experiencing historic abundance.

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This deployment is Microsoft's largest to date.

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The deployment is improving productivity and enabling internal AI agents across workflows.

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Mercedes-Benz partnered with Liquid AI to deploy on-device AI assistants in future vehicles.

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This deal brings foundation models directly onto automotive hardware.

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This enables low-latency and privacy-preserving in-car AI systems.

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Anthropic launched Claude creative connectors that integrate with Adobe Creative Cloud, Blender and more.

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These connectors let Claude act as an agent across creative tools.

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The Q1 2026 data from NVCA-PitchBook Venture Monitor indicates an "AI Power Law Era."

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This potential raise highlights extreme capital concentration in frontier labs.

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This potential raise highlights intensifying competition for model leadership.

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KKR is preparing a $10 billion-plus AI infrastructure venture.

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The KKR venture will be led by former AWS chief Adam Selipsky.

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The KKR platform will focus on data centers, power, and connectivity to support growing AI compute demand.

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