Every atomic assertion extracted from the underlying record, ranked by evidence strength.
Output per hour (productivity) has slowed to a halt in the developed world.
Jeff Curry of Goldman Sachs states that when OPEC says it will lower production, it never works in a supply-driven bear market.
The OPEC production cut is likely to be self-negating towards the end of 2017.
UBS's view is that the dollar has peaked against developed market currencies generally.
The proximate cause for rising oil prices is the forecast that stockpiles in the United States dropped significantly.
The Petroleum Institute numbers were released yesterday, and Department of Energy figures are expected this morning.
OPEC announced it would try to put some sort of production caps in place.
OPEC production cuts typically work under demand shock environments where producers have to shut in barrels.
Trading volatility to the upside is typically seen after OPEC announcements.
The success of OPEC's production agreement hinges on Saudi Arabia.
Saudi Arabia is the swing producer in OPEC with excess capacity.
Saudi Arabia is currently struggling financially.
Nigeria, Libya, and Iran were excluded from the OPEC agreement.
Nigeria, Libya, and Iran could add another 1 million barrels per day of production over the next year.
Shale output is likely to see a 500,000 barrel per day increase if prices reach the $50 to $55 a barrel range.
Global oil demand will likely be weaker.
The initial idea for OPEC was to cut back by 740,000 barrels a day, which was less than 1% of global production.
The current target for OPEC is a 1 million barrel per day cut.
Offsetting factors to the OPEC cut include a 500,000 barrel per day increase in shale output, 200,000 barrels a day weaker demand, and modest improvement in brownfield deliveries (totaling 800,000 barrels per day offset).
The net impact of the OPEC cut is estimated to be about 200,000 barrels per day.
OPEC's recent announcement made no reference to a price target, instead focusing on inventory overhang.
In 2008, OPEC had a target of $70 to $80 a barrel for oil prices.
Most people argue there is an implicit target of $50 to $60 for oil prices currently.
Running a cartel in the current environment is extremely difficult due to the advent of shale oil.
At $100 a barrel, the world was short on oil supply.
In the current environment, there is more than enough oil supply for everybody.
The current oil market is in a relatively lackluster, low volatility trading range at equilibrium values.
Goldman Sachs' forecast for next year is an average oil price of $50 a barrel.
Goldman Sachs initially forecast oil prices going from $45 to $50 next year, then $55.
The OPEC announcement reversed Goldman Sachs' forecast to oil prices going from $55 down to $45.
Any impact of an oil production cut will be near-term, putting upward pressure on prices, but will have a negative effect towards the end of next year.
Goldman Sachs' long-term terminal value for oil is $50 a barrel.
Goldman Sachs is skewed to the downside in terms of risk for oil prices.
A downward shift in the underlying cost structure is driving lower terminal values for oil.
A stronger dollar puts downward pressure on the cost structure of oil production.
The economics of many oil projects valued at $100 a barrel in 2012 and 2013 are the same today due to macro changes.
Asset values provide collateral for leverage to access debt markets for oil companies.
Exxon's stock is down 16% from its peak.
Major, vertically integrated oil companies are in better shape than independent producers.
Integrated oil companies excel at production ('P'), while independent oil and gas companies excel at exploration ('E').
The outlook for smaller independents and E&P companies globally faces significant headwinds.
U.S. oil imports have been down over the last several months due to storms in the Gulf preventing ships from delivering oil.
The recent rally in oil prices is due to the OPEC news and the lack of U.S. imports and decline in stockpiles.
Goldman Sachs forecasts a $52.50 average WTI price for next year.
The longer-term value for WTI is also $50.
The IMF is gathering in Washington to take stock of the global economy.
Emerging markets (EM) have had a very good year, outperforming developed markets (DM).
EM growth is around 4%, while DM growth is around 1.5% to 2%.
Equities are doing better due to factors like a weaker dollar and rebounding commodity prices.
Jeffrey Dennis of UBS is looking for stock opportunities in a slow growth world.
UBS is focusing on yield opportunities in emerging markets.
UBS is identifying EM companies that are improving profitability by controlling costs and cutting capex.
There is a possibility of some fiscal expansion in the United States after the election.
Europe is experiencing less fiscal tightening than it was previously.
The Turkish market is down 48% from its peak in 2013.
Turkey trades at eight times forward earnings, making it the cheapest market in EM apart from Russia.
Turkish companies are typically resilient to macro developments and relatively profitable.
Turkey has seen a pickup in earnings momentum.
The global backdrop is relatively benign, and liquidity will still be present.
UBS does not see much downside in the Turkish lira over the next several months.