Every atomic assertion extracted from the underlying record, ranked by evidence strength.
Europe is expected to see the emergence of the same populist wave observed in the UK and US.
Italy and France are identified as the next vulnerable countries for rising yields and spreads due to populism.
A 'no' vote in Italy's referendum or Marine Le Pen rising in France could cause Italy's spread to exceed 200 against Bunds and France's spread to reach around 100 against Bunds.
Investors should be in investments positioned for a rising inflationary and rising bond yield environment.
Inclusive growth policies, including infrastructure spending and support for periphery countries that underwent austerity, are needed.
Spain currently has a stable political situation.
Italy will vote on a referendum to simplify its Constitution and government on December 4th.
The Italian referendum vote has been framed by the opposition as a way to oust the current government.
There is a risk of Marine Le Pen rising in France.
The current leading center-right candidate in France is very harsh on economic policy.
Marty Feldstein expressed real concern about elevated markets and asset bubbles.
Alberto Gallo's firm has been cautious on bonds, calling for a bubble to deflate for many months.
Alberto Gallo is worried about Italian, French, and UK bonds.
UK inflation expectations are 3.5%, while 10-year yields are 1.4%, indicating no value in bonds.
Bond funds, especially those with passive strategies and ETFs, are not set for a rising inflationary and bond yield environment.
The European Central Bank (ECB) has given time for fiscal spending by not pricing risk into bond yields.
Buying bonds is a strategy when growth is low and central banks are expected to prevent economic collapse.
If there is growth and fiscal spending, investors should buy high-yield bonds, stocks, or position for a steeper yield curve.
Banks and insurance companies are investments linked to growth that people were not looking at previously.
There is a huge rotation occurring from dividend trades like utilities and telecoms to growth trades in equities.
The bond market played a role in removing Silvio Berlusconi's government in Italy, leading to a technocratic government.
Mario Draghi is leaving his position in January 2019.
Inequality is leading to populism, and monetary policy has not solved this problem.
The US is expected to see stronger growth due to the impact of some fiscal policies, particularly infrastructure spending.
Infrastructure spending can increase GDP by around a dollar or more for every dollar spent.
Cutting taxes for the top 1% does not have the same GDP impact as infrastructure spending.
In the UK, inflation is likely to outpace GDP due to a weak pound and uncertainty.
The German finance minister stated they would double the Juncker plan, which is only 0.1% of GDP.
The Juncker plan needs to be 10 times bigger to have a significant impact.
A weaker euro helps Germany and export-oriented businesses but is not a complete solution for economic issues.
The growth divergence between Germany and other European countries is too large.
Euro parity with the dollar is in the cards, especially if there's a 'no' vote in the Italian referendum or Marine Le Pen rises in France.
The dollar has been strong since the election.
Kamal Sreekumar has been a dollar bull for quite some time and expects the euro to go to parity.
The market shows a 100% probability of a Fed rate hike.
Donald Trump has indicated he will not re-nominate Janet Yellen as Federal Reserve Chair when her term expires in January 2018.
Janet Yellen might hike rates if she is not going to be re-nominated, doing what is necessary.
Kamal Sreekumar expects at least two Fed rate hikes next year, a change from his pre-election view.
Trade restrictions imposed by Donald Trump would strengthen the dollar by increasing global uncertainty and risk, drawing money into the US.
The 10-year US Treasury yield of 2.34-2.35% is unsustainable due to a more than 2% spread with the German 10-year bond, the highest since 1989.
Bond vigilantes have gone too far in selling US Treasuries, implying yields will come down while the dollar strengthens.
Lyle Brainerd, a permanent voter on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, contributed to Hillary Clinton's campaign.
Presidents have historically bullied the Federal Reserve, as exemplified by Richard Nixon and Arthur Burns in the early 1970s.
Paul Volcker was an exception to the historical trend of Fed chairmen being influenced by presidents.
G. William Miller served as Fed chairman for only one year in 1979-80.
Donald Trump will have a significant opportunity to reshape the Federal Reserve through personnel changes.
Federal Reserve policy in recent years has been characterized as "seat of the pants policymaking," reacting to the latest data points.
A rules-based Federal Reserve policy, like the Taylor rule, would provide market certainty and reduce subjectivity.
John Taylor, a professor at Stanford University, is famous for his Taylor rule.
The Taylor rule would currently call for a federal funds rate of about +1.5%.
A significant increase in fiscal spending, before impacting productivity, is likely to push up prices.
Low-wage or manufacturing jobs, where competitors are in Mexico or China, are gone forever and cannot be brought back by trade restrictions.
The Hartz reforms in Germany in 2003 focused on retraining and educating workers for jobs with greater demand.
Workers need to be retrained and educated in jobs with greater demand, with salary support during training.
There will be fiscal stimulus under the Trump administration, with tax cuts being the easier part to implement than infrastructure spending.
Tax cuts structured only for the highest income levels will not benefit core Trump supporters.
Effective infrastructure programs require private sector participation, such as toll roads where investors benefit from tolls.
A report from MSNBC states that President-elect Donald Trump will not pursue an investigation into Hillary Clinton.
Donald Trump canceled his meeting with The New York Times, which the editorial board learned via his tweet.
Rudy Giuliani is being considered for Trump's national intelligence director.