Every atomic assertion extracted from the underlying record, ranked by evidence strength.
Bank of America's headcount dipped to $209,000 in the latest report.
Forecasting the trading sides of banks is very difficult.
The number of Americans going to restaurants was "off a cliff" in late summer/early fall.
A broad-based consensus among FOMC members is needed before raising rates.
The Fed still cannot make the case for a rate increase based on data, despite some members being anxious.
Lower energy prices and lower expenditures in Q4 could boost top-line GDP.
Stan Fischer is speaking today at the Economic Club of New York.
The U.S. economy is not recovering as expected, with growth averaging 1% in the first six months.
Inflation is well below the Fed's 2% longer-term target.
The Fed does not expect to meet its 2% inflation objective for the next several years.
The Fed is data-dependent, but the market sometimes misinterprets their statements by focusing only on "relatively soon" for rate hikes.
The consumer is under pressure and was doing the heavy lifting in Q2.
Negative business investment and declining income growth will likely lead to increased consumer hardship in H2.
Consumers tightening purse strings (e.g., less dining out, less electronics/apparel buying) signals less confidence in their financial situation.
The Empire Manufacturing Index came in well below consensus and deep into negative territory.
The Empire number throws cold water on the idea of the second half of the year picking up momentum for manufacturing.
Potential silver linings for manufacturing include easing pressure on the dollar (making U.S. goods cheaper) and global demand pickup.
Business activity is declining in New York State.
The labor market remains weak in New York State.
Outlook indexes for the six-month outlook suggested manufacturers were more optimistic about future conditions than in September.
Manufacturers are generally more optimistic than actual data represents.
Sentiment can be very important because it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Consumer concern about the outlook can lead to tightening purse strings, reduced investment, and less debt/purchases.
Core retail sales were negative for two consecutive months, followed by a minimal 0.1% increase.
Consumers' propensity to buy vehicles is on a steep decline, down 2% year over year.
The consumer savings rate is ticking up towards 6%, the third consecutive month of increase.
Consumers save when they are concerned about their financial future.
A split vote (e.g., five to five) on rate hikes would make it difficult to convey confidence.
The market is focused on technicals in the corporate bond market, not fundamentals.
Global central bank policy has reached unprecedented proportions.
The European Central Bank (ECB) is buying almost 100% of the net supply of high-grade corporate issuance.
Substantial demand for U.S. credit comes from places like Japan due to new policy.
It is increasingly expensive for foreign clients to invest in the U.S. due to FX and swap markets.
Foreign demand for U.S. credit is more than absorbing the supply.
Clients are somewhat paralyzed due to technicals overriding fundamental concerns.
Global rates have seen a substantial rally, leading to very low government bond yield levels globally.
Credit spreads are near their tightest levels, with high-grade around 130 basis points and high-yield inside 500 basis points at about 485.
The incremental demand for U.S. credit is coming from overseas investors, not domestic ones.
Foreign investors' alternative to U.S. credit is often zero yield.
Foreign investors are increasingly looking at longer duration or longer tenors (20-year and 30-year) in the U.S. high-grade credit market.
Foreign investors are willing to take duration risk relative to investing in their home market where yields are sub 1%.
Institutional retirement money has a growing concern about not making actuarial assumptions.
There is a significant cost focus accelerating among institutions to rein in costs due to lower expected returns.
Idiosyncratic stress among European banks (German, Italian) is not having a significant impact on credit markets.
Some clients believe the ECB might buy bank or financial bonds if things worsen.
Clients are positioned more constructively on European banks in general.
U.S. investors are more skeptical and concerned about European banks than European credit investors.
Central bank policy and monetary policy put pressure on European bank business models, visible in equity prices but not debt prices.
Credit investors view European bank issues as an income statement problem, not a balance sheet problem.
There has been a tremendous rally in low-quality (triple C) credit within U.S. high yield and the oil sector.
Triple C debt is up almost 30% year-to-date.
Yields on energy debt were more than twice the overall high-yield index level at the start of the year.
The spread between energy debt and the broader high-yield market has compressed to a modest discount (1-2%).
The market has priced in the sustainability and survivability of most energy companies at current or higher oil prices.
The market expects a significant decline in default rates for energy companies.
Many things in the market look "priced to perfection," making it difficult to find attractive value.
Investors should focus on basic credit fundamentals, defensive, higher-quality assets, and sit and hold tight.
Reasonable income can still be earned in the triple B or crossover segment of the U.S. credit market.
Sectors like utilities and telecoms are fairly defensive.
The strongest endorsement for owning defensive sectors is that investors are not paid much more for riskier, higher-yielding sectors.