Every atomic assertion extracted from the underlying record, ranked by evidence strength.
Global equities outperformed in April 2026, with S&P500 and Nasdaq reaching fresh record highs.
The FOMC saw a hawkish tilt, with three members not supportive of maintaining the easing bias in the statement.
Oil prices are likely to stay elevated, with Brent expected to end 2026 near USD80 per barrel, up from USD70 previously.
OCBC believes China may emerge as a long-term structural winner from the Iran War.
Policymakers in Asia are cautiously watching inflation risks.
Some ASEAN countries have announced various energy-saving measures, including work from home, travel contingency, petroleum/LNG rationalisation, alternative energy import sourcing, changing fuel related duties, and other fiscal support measures.
The outperformance of global equities was on the back of AI stocks and generally healthy earnings guidance.
UAE's withdrawal from OPEC+ prompted the latter to announce a modest symbolic hike of 188,000 barrels a day to their June production quota.
Policy divergence is increasingly driving cross-market performance.
Asia's 1Q26 growth remained resilient, benefiting from supply chain diversification and the AI boom.
Uncertainty persists over when the Strait of Hormuz will reopen and how long the energy shock will last.
Recent Purchasing Managers Indices (PMIs) are starting to reveal emerging pressures in business cost and supplier delivery gauges.
The USD would likely soften if US-Iran tensions ease, and OCBC continues to forecast mild USD depreciation in 2H26.
Investors will be alert to the ongoing health of the US economy, particularly upcoming April nonfarm payrolls and unemployment data.
China's economic growth reaccelerated to 5% YoY in 1Q26 from 4.5% in 4Q25, beating expectations despite the energy shock in March.
The USDJPY breached 160, prompting intervention from BoJ amid speculation of further actions.
As long as US equities lead, USD downside should be limited.
China's growth was supported primarily by the earlier transmission of macro policy support.
The Iran war is increasingly emerging as a double-edged sword for China.
China remains exposed to disruptions via its reliance on the Strait of Hormuz and imported oil and gas, implying a prolonged conflict would weigh on growth.
The impact of the Iran war on China is likely to be mitigated by China's relatively resilient energy system and the ongoing re-rating of its manufacturing sector.
The continued push toward de-dollarization could provide an additional medium-term tailwind for RMB internationalization.
OCBC expects any Asian ex-JPY rebound to remain selective and uneven, with oil prices, USD momentum, and the RMB fix as key variables to watch.
SGD has remained relatively resilient, continuing to trade like a regional defensive currency, but it is not insulated from the broader macro mix.
Hopes of a Middle East de-escalation have lifted risk assets and high-beta FX, even as oil prices briefly pushed to new highs in April.
Strong US equities, led by the AI theme, have eroded the USD's safe-haven appeal.
OCBC revised upward UST yields and USD rates forecasts, mostly for end Q2 and end Q3, due to near-term inflation risks.
OCBC's conviction for USD depreciation has weakened due to a clear hawkish drift at the April FOMC meeting and resilient US data.
Chair Jerome Powell noted the FOMC is moving towards a more neutral stance, following three dissents against maintaining dovish guidance.
A renewed hiking cycle by the FOMC would be USD-positive but remains unlikely for now under the new Chair.
The policy divergences may create greater currency volatility, wider interest-rate differentials, and more discerning capital flows.
Investment in technology is likely to cushion the economic drag from higher energy costs.
The rotation out of US equities has stalled, with strong tech-driven earnings growth reinforcing US equity outperformance.
Investors will be alert to the leadership of the new FOMC chair Kevin Warsh.
The risk of higher-for-longer energy prices favors net energy exporters like the US over importers such as the euro area.
The sharp USDJPY pullback after breaking above 160 likely reflected real JPY-buying intervention, amplified by thin Golden Week liquidity.
Further intervention could push USDJPY into the 150-155 range, lifting Asian FX in the near term.
OCBC remains cautious and keeps its end-2026 USDJPY target at 155.
A June BOJ hike looks likely, but policy still appears behind the curve, limiting JPY support.
Asian ex-JPY FX traded on a weaker footing into end-April 2026, with losses led by PHP, IDR, and THB.
Higher oil prices remain the key headwind for Asian ex-JPY FX, as the prolonged US-Iran standoff risks turning into a durable terms-of-trade and inflation shock.
The recent FOMC meeting underscored a more divided Fed, while oil-related inflation risks contributed to a hawkish repricing.
Fed funds futures are no longer pricing in a full cut through mid-2027, keeping USD support intact and limiting the scope for AXJ relief rallies.
Oil-sensitive FX, including PHP, THB, IDR, and INR, will be most weighed down by terms of trade shock, inflation, and growth concerns.
SGD and MYR may retain relative resilience, supported by effects of tighter policy stance and energy-linked buffers respectively.
RMB remains guided by steady fixing while KRW and TWD may still find some support from the AI/export cycle.
The 10-year UST bond yield tested 4.4% due to inflationary concerns amid elevated energy prices.
OCBC calibrated IDR and PHP weaker and KRW, TWD, CNY, MYR, SGD firmer to reflect the mix.
The BOJ also saw growing division among its members.
The combination of policy division, caution from the FOMC, rebound in oil prices, and Middle East tensions favors SGD on a relative basis against some Asian peers.
Higher oil prices and rising risk of softer global growth pulse may still weigh on SGD versus USD.
The Fed kept the target range for the Fed funds rate unchanged at 3.50-3.75% at its April meeting.
The FOMC statement mentioned three members "did not support inclusion of an easing bias in the statement at this time", leading to hawkish market re-pricing of the Fed funds rate.
OCBC still has one 25bp Fed funds rate cut on its forecast profile, considering downside risk in the labor market/growth, but pushed this expected cut to Q4.
The FOMC, ECB, BOE, and BOJ recently stayed on hold regarding policy rates.
OCBC remains of the view that the room for the BOE to hike rates is limited, given the current Bank Rate and expectedly slower wage growth ahead.
OCBC expects the BOE to keep Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75% through 2026 as the default option.
The risk for BOE is a more hawkish policy response if second-round inflation effects become evident.
The BOE committee "stands ready to act" as necessary to ensure inflation meets its target.
April 2026 was a month of resilience despite the prolonged Iran war and an extended ceasefire not yielding any deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.