Under Chief of Army Staff Asim Munir, Pakistan's military has significantly consolidated its power, formalizing its dominant role through constitutional changes and a "hard state" approach to domestic dissent. While Munir has gained international trust, notably with U.S. President Donald Trump and through mediation in the U.S.-Iran conflict, this international goodwill is being gambled on to shore up domestic legitimacy and economic stability. The regime faces critical tests, including managing internal political fault lines, stabilizing a fragile economy, and navigating complex regional conflicts with India and Afghanistan, as well as the spillover risks from the Iran war.
Every atomic assertion extracted from the underlying record, ranked by evidence strength.
The regime's guiding doctrine is the "hard state" approach, which involves an uncompromising, militarized framework for internal security and political management.
Journalist Khurram Husain stated that Pakistan "had hit peak stability a year ago" but "no reforms came."
The regime has bet that international legitimacy can be translated into domestic stability.
Over the past three years, Pakistan's Chief of Army Staff Asim Munir has consolidated control and formalized the military's dominant role within Pakistan's constitutional framework.
The government appears to be gambling on international goodwill to establish popular legitimacy at home, or at least to shore up elite support and dependence.
If external financing and IMF support do not translate into substantial economic reforms, and public dissatisfaction mounts in the face of ongoing price hikes, the PML-N government will be a target of public anger, and the army chief may also feel the heat.
Renewed cross-border clashes-and potential spill-over from Iran-would heighten the risk of terrorist violence in KP and Balochistan.
Asim Munir leveraged relationships with the U.S. and Arab/Gulf states to mediate between Iran and the United States.
Asim Munir has strengthened ties with Arab and Gulf states.
Pakistan has become more strategically relevant in an increasingly multipolar world.
The military entrenched its dominance through media regulation and censorship, internet governance, and sustained, heavy-handed repression.
Divisions within the armed forces are being managed to alleviate the risk of internal resistance.
Internal resistance was a concern after the 2023 arrest of Pakistan's populist former prime minister Imran Khan.
Authorities have suppressed popular social movement organizations demanding redress for ethnic minorities in Pakistan's peripheral regions.
The military leveraged coordination between the ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) coalition to entrench its dominance.
The "hard state" approach relies on political repression and constitutional redesign to centralize command and narrow dissent.
Under Munir's command, the military has entrenched its dominance through a weak and compliant civilian government.
The separatist insurgency in Balochistan has intensified over the past few years.
Government security forces reportedly killed dozens of militants in retaliation for the BLA attacks.
The regime's list of political prisoners has expanded dramatically in recent years.
Imran Khan and his wife have been incarcerated for nearly three years.
Members of Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party have been subjected to legal and extra-legal repression.
Public gatherings and assemblies are increasingly criminalized, especially in Islamabad.
The government's strategy to quell street mobilization and blunt PTI's political momentum has been largely successful.
The appetite for confrontational politics in Punjab has significantly dissipated since 2023.
Imran Khan retains widespread popularity despite incarceration.
Criticism and dissent continue in the digital sphere despite internet firewalls and enforcement of the Pakistan Electronic Crimes Act (PECA).
The courts used PECA to sentence human rights lawyers Imaan Mazari and Hadi Ali Chatha to seventeen years in prison for social media posts.
The regime has sought to formalize its dominance through constitutional and legal reform.
Leaders like Ali Wazir of the Pashtun Tahaffuz Movement and Mahrang Baloch of the Baloch Yakjehti Committee have been imprisoned, punished, and silenced.
Munir's power enduring depends on four interlocking tests: domestic political fault lines, constitutional redesign durability, economic stabilization and growth, and sustained external partnerships.
The portrayal of the May 2025 conflict as a strategic success bolstered the military's domestic standing.
This pattern of repression has not registered sustained international attention.
Marginalized communities were forcibly evicted in Islamabad during major anti-encroachment drives.
Mainstream Pakistani political parties are complicit in the criminalization of political activity.
Balochistan remains the regime's weakest link and the hard state's soft underbelly.
Munir's mediation efforts gained praise from major stakeholders in the conflict and built credibility and global relevance.
In January 2026, the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) successfully penetrated urban spaces and hit hardened targets, killing civilians and security personnel.
More than 146,000 Afghans have been forcibly returned this year alone.
The BLA's coordinated assaults prompted scrutiny over possible intelligence failures in Balochistan.
State legitimacy is contested and public support for separatist sentiment persists in Balochistan.
The January 2026 attack followed the March 2025 assault on the Jaffer Express passenger train, which resulted in significant casualties.
Pakistan blamed India for the 2025 Jaffer Express attack.
Human rights groups documented gross human rights violations, including extrajudicial killings and enforced disappearances, during military operations in Balochistan.
Continuing the hard state approach in Balochistan risks exacerbating resentment and further destabilizing the province.
Balochistan could become a trigger for another violent confrontation between India and Pakistan if Islamabad blames India for backing insurgent groups.
An uptick in violence threatens foreign assets and investments in Balochistan.
Chinese projects under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) have been subject to repeated attacks.
Continued violence could threaten American mineral and energy investments in Balochistan.
An armed attack on a multinational mining exploration site in Balochistan occurred in April, with employees abducted and killed.
The attack in Balochistan raises questions about the region's volatility and potential spillover from the Iran war.
Pakistani security forces face resistance in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), where the army lacks public legitimacy.
Counterinsurgency efforts in KP have not yielded lasting peace due to Pakistan's history of patronizing the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).
The year 2025 was Pakistan's deadliest in a decade, with substantial army and police losses.
Decades of armed violence and instability have caused communities to distrust the state, enabling the TTP to recruit locally.
A portion of the KP population has been more sympathetic to the Pakistani Taliban than the armed forces.
Pakistan's troubled relationship with Taliban-ruled Afghanistan has enabled the TTP to rely on Afghan Taliban support.
TTP members move back and forth across the border, complicating Pakistan's ability to target the organization.
Authorities have escalated the mass deportation of Afghan refugees.
Munir and his government have played a pivotal role in mediating between Iran and the United States in the last month.