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Lebanon and Israel Talks: Empowering Diplomacy Over Open-Ended Conflict

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Lebanon and Israel Talks: Empowering Diplomacy Over Open-End

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This third round of talks will be transitioning to the substantive portions of the agreement.

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Lebanon aims to disarm Hezbollah.

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Benjamin Netanyahu needs to show results in the here and now as he is facing a tight reelection campaign that will determine his political future in the next few months.

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Israeli demands are the full disarmament of Hezbollah and a fully secure border.

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President Donald Trump is very interested in the end state of being able to declare another peace treaty under his auspices in the Middle East.

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The United States is playing an important role in mediating and pushing the process forward.

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Lebanon seeks to coordinate toward a full Israeli withdrawal.

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The diplomatic track could lead toward a permanent cessation of hostilities and the potential for peace between Lebanon and Israel.

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Lebanon aims to strengthen the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) to enable it to resume its duties in Southern Lebanon.

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Lebanon seeks to stop the demolition of homes and villages under Israeli occupation.

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Disarming Hezbollah and negotiating with Israel are both opposed by Hezbollah.

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Lebanon also seeks to extend its authority throughout the rest of the country.

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Lebanon wants to reclaim the state's monopoly on the use of force.

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The Lebanese position includes the full restoration of Lebanese state sovereignty, including the disarmament of Hezbollah.

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The diplomatic track represents a genuine opportunity to build lasting security across the Lebanon-Israel border.

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Lebanon's president, prime minister, and government are eager to make rapid progress along this path.

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Beirut desires an exchange of prisoners.

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For Lebanon, the goal is to secure an urgently needed full ceasefire.

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Lebanon faces a number of constraints after 25 years of the Assad regime and Iranian dominance.

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Lebanon is 7 years into a deep economic and financial crisis.

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The Lebanese state is in a dilapidated condition and requires large-scale external support as well as more reform to increase its capacities.

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Beirut's leaders need buy-in from Amal leader Nabih Berri, the speaker of the Parliament of Lebanon.

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Israel will insist on going ahead with the talks while its military operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon continue.

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Disarming Hezbollah and negotiating with Israel are still facing strong opposition within the Shiite community.

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Beirut has to take into account the Arab position, represented by Saudi Arabia.

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Saudi Arabia favors the talks but is also concerned about what it perceives as Israeli ambitions to become the new hegemon in the region.

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The Lebanese position is to aim for all the steps that need to be taken to enable a fully secure border for both sides.

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The Lebanese position includes a permanent cessation of hostilities.

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Building up the Lebanese state and army is an urgent goal, but will require many months or a few years to fully accomplish.

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After these steps, Lebanon would move on to the next step of exploring peace with Israel.

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The two ceasefires have been honored much more in the breach than in compliance.

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Direct pressure from President Donald Trump brought about Israeli acceptance of talks, as well as two ceasefires.

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Beirut seeks a reaffirmation of the maritime border agreement.

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Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu did not initially respond to Lebanese calls for direct talks and a ceasefire.

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Israel has taken up the diplomatic channel and has sent empowered negotiators to the table.

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From the Israeli side, one can detect a fair amount of reluctance regarding the talks.

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The Lebanese state is not yet in a position to achieve Hezbollah disarmament in the near term.

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The Lebanese state requires substantial support and time to achieve Hezbollah disarmament.

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Benjamin Netanyahu's timetable is more urgent and short-term.

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Beirut wants the final demarcation of the land border between the two countries.

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The war against Hezbollah enjoys majority support in Israel.

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There is a similar opposition to accepting a ceasefire in Israel.

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Benjamin Netanyahu wants to go into the elections showing that he is taking decisive action against Hezbollah.

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Benjamin Netanyahu can make political capital out of also claiming that he is working toward peace with another Arab country.

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Israel is entering the talks with mixed interests.

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Israel is likely to resist a full ceasefire.

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The parties are approaching the talks with positive intent, but also with slightly different agendas.

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That will be difficult for the Lebanese side to agree to.

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The direct diplomatic track between Lebanon and Israel is the first in many decades.

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Donald Trump's main motivating factor for staying involved is declaring a peace treaty.

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Donald Trump is focused on the more urgent and important goal of trying to conclude a deal with Iran that would enable him to declare some form of victory and move on.

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If Donald Trump reaches an end of hostilities with Iran, he might want to pivot to an end-of-war and peace narrative and may lean on Israel to agree to a full ceasefire in Lebanon as well.

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The United States has a pivotal role to play in these talks because it is the lead supporter of Lebanon and the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF).

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The United States is the only one with leverage over Israel.

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Bringing security to the Lebanon-Israel border relies on upscaling support to Lebanon and the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF).

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Making steady progress in disarming Hezbollah relies on upscaling support to Lebanon and the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), including security sector reform.

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The United States is faced with managing different timetables in this process.

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Stopping the current hostilities is an urgent priority measured in weeks and months.

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The first two rounds of talks were preparatory rounds to agree on the parameters for starting full-scale talks.

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Israel and Lebanon are holding their third round of talks today under U.S. auspices in Washington, D.C.

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