Every atomic assertion extracted from the underlying record, ranked by evidence strength.
The Irish economy has maintained strong performance despite trade and geopolitical tensions and elevated uncertainty.
The views expressed in this statement are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF's Executive Board.
The Irish economy is projected to grow at a slower but still robust pace.
Ireland needs to prepare its labor market for AI.
With the economy in a relatively strong position, this is the time to make sound choices that address vulnerabilities, improve productivity, and secure lasting prosperity.
Modified domestic demand growth is projected to moderate from almost 5 percent in 2025 to about 2½ percent in 2026-27.
Missions are undertaken as part of regular (usually annual) consultations under Article IV of the IMF's Articles of Agreement.
The Irish economy could benefit significantly from deepening the EU Single Market.
A Concluding Statement describes the preliminary findings of IMF staff at the end of an official staff visit to a member country.
Based on the preliminary findings of this mission, staff will prepare a report that, subject to management approval, will be presented to the IMF Executive Board for discussion and decision.
The authorities have consented to the publication of this statement.
Ireland's resilience cannot be taken for granted given its structural vulnerabilities in a world that is becoming more unpredictable.
Key policy priorities for Ireland include broadening the tax base to reduce reliance on highly concentrated corporate income tax.
Key policy priorities for Ireland include accelerating public investment efficiently while closely controlling current expenditure growth and minimizing spending overruns to achieve a broadly neutral fiscal stance.
Key policy priorities for Ireland's financial sector include maintaining close monitoring of financial stability risks.
Risks to inflation in Ireland are on the upside.
Significant uncertainty remains, and risks to the growth outlook are on the downside.
Headline inflation in Ireland is projected to return to 2 percent around 2028.
The slowdown in modified domestic demand also reflects normalization of modified investment from a high level in 2025.
Strengthening expenditure controls can help minimize spending overruns in Ireland.
The slowdown in modified domestic demand largely reflects a softening of private consumption due to weaker employment and real income growth.
Key policy priorities for Ireland include strengthening the national fiscal framework and budget credibility.
The upcoming Comprehensive Review of Public Financial Procedures offers an opportunity to update procedures to reflect current operational practices.
Stronger expenditure control measures, including tighter in-year monitoring, earlier intervention, and corrective actions, should be implemented systematically in Ireland.
Upstream measures, including commitment control over procurement, could be improved by enhancing digitalization and integrating platforms and data.
Headline inflation in Ireland is projected to rise to about 3½ percent on average this year.
The Accelerating Infrastructure Action Plan provides useful guidance for further reforms and should be implemented without delay.
Broadening the tax base in Ireland would provide more sustainable revenue sources for permanent spending commitments and allow for channeling more excess corporate income tax (CIT) revenues into the two savings funds.
The number of preferential VAT or excise rates in Ireland, especially on items that disproportionately benefit higher-income earners, could be reduced.
Substantial external risks stem from the war in the Middle East, with its impact on the Irish economy contingent on the intensity and duration of the energy price shock.
In a downside scenario of moderately lower growth and higher inflation, Ireland should allow automatic stabilizers to work fully, and any additional discretionary fiscal support should be time-bound, targeted, and maintain the price signal.
Staying within the expenditure ceiling path in the Medium-Term Fiscal Structural Plan (MTFSP) will be key to achieving a broadly neutral fiscal stance from 2027 onwards.
Near-term growth momentum is expected to face headwinds from the war in the Middle East, reflecting higher energy prices and global uncertainty.
Key structural policy priorities for Ireland include supporting a deepening of the EU single market.
With the Irish economy already operating at full capacity and facing upside inflation risks, fiscal policy should avoid injecting unnecessary stimulus and prevent boom-bust dynamics.
Key structural policy priorities for Ireland include preparing workers for the AI transformation.
Ireland must look beyond immediate pressures and future-proof the economy for the long run.
Current expenditure in Ireland has become elevated following rapid growth in recent years, with health and social spending repeatedly exceeding budget allocations.
The IMF supports Ireland's planned scale-up of public investment to close housing and infrastructure gaps, which could also crowd in private investment.
A broadly neutral fiscal stance would help Ireland build buffers for future shocks and spending needs stemming from aging and the green transition.
The fiscal stance in Ireland for 2025-26 is assessed to be moderately expansionary.
The IMF recommends closely controlling current expenditure growth and minimizing spending overruns in Ireland.
Key structural policy priorities for Ireland include enhancing energy security by staying the course on the green transition and further integrating with the EU energy market.
Fiscal responses to materializing risks in Ireland need to be properly calibrated, focusing on targeted and temporary support.
A broadly neutral fiscal stance would be appropriate for Ireland in the near and medium term.
In a severe scenario where growth slows sharply, Ireland has fiscal space to scale up discretionary targeted support and accommodate higher deficits temporarily while deepening reforms to safeguard long-term fiscal sustainability.
Domestically, persistent supply-side constraints in infrastructure, housing, and labor markets could weigh on Ireland's productivity.
Key structural policy priorities for Ireland include boosting housing supply.
Rapid AI adoption and progress with the EU Single Market could be associated with greater dynamism and productivity in Ireland (upside risk).
The Expenditure Control and Escalation Process sets out a formalized escalation pathway to strengthen expenditure management and a phased approach to address overruns across government departments.
The rapidly evolving landscape of AI poses novel risks, including misuse of AI technologies threatening cyber security and a revision in expectations of AI-driven productivity gains triggering steep financial market corrections.
Expenditure controls can only be strengthened meaningfully if budget planning sets binding targets that limit the expectation of and the need for additional appropriations.
The authorities' commitment to accelerating infrastructure spending in Ireland is welcome, and effective implementation will be key.
Policy should continue to address key structural bottlenecks to investment, particularly those arising from the complex planning and judicial review process, to ensure timely delivery of infrastructure projects.
Rising geoeconomic fragmentation and elevated policy uncertainty could lead to further reorganization of supply chains and shifts in trade and capital flows detrimental to Ireland's globally integrated economy.
The IMF supports reform priorities in the Accelerating Infrastructure Action Plan to cap the costs of environmental planning judicial reviews, streamline court procedures, shorten consent procedures, and eliminate dual approval processes for critical infrastructure projects.
Ireland's high reliance on multinational enterprises (MNEs) continues to be a source of vulnerability.
Increasing local property tax rates in Ireland could provide higher and more stable revenue streams.
Key policy priorities for Ireland's financial sector include continuing work to strengthen regulation and supervision of the non-bank financial sector and address data gaps.
Key policy priorities for Ireland's financial sector include reviewing and adjusting the macroprudential settings as warranted.