Every atomic assertion extracted from the underlying record, ranked by evidence strength.
It is unusual for a president to weigh in on the foreign exchange value of the dollar.
IBM's AI resolves 94% of common HR questions.
There is no reason for the Federal Reserve to reduce its $4.5 trillion balance sheet.
IBM uses AI to help 300,000 employees fill their HR questions.
CME Group S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 futures trade nearly 24 hours with great liquidity.
China will not be labeled a currency manipulator in the upcoming Treasury report.
If healthcare and tax reform fail, President Donald Trump might revert to tariffs or border taxes for an easy win.
Sweeping changes are difficult due to rifts within the Republican Party in Congress and the Senate.
J.P. Morgan and Citigroup Q1 earnings show strong fixed income trading.
President Donald Trump does not want the dollar strengthening.
A high dollar is a headwind for President Donald Trump's agenda to revive manufacturing.
A Bloomberg story quoted President Donald Trump saying healthcare reform needs to move before tax reform.
Conventional wisdom after the ACA repeal and replace failed was that tax reform would be easier.
The administration will be forced to go for more marginal changes, characterized as 'easy wins'.
Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross is embarking on a 90-day undertaking to look at bad trade deals.
Risks of a trade war or aggressively protectionist policies (Smoot-Hawley 2.0) have receded recently.
Sweeping changes in trade deals would probably be to the negative side.
President Donald Trump's views on trade have been mercantilist, nationalistic, and zero-sum since the late 1980s.
The Federal Reserve is on a course of quarter-to-quarter rate hikes of 25 basis points per quarter.
New York Fed President William Dudley stated the Fed will pause rate hikes when balance sheet reduction begins.
The dot plot suggests two more rate hikes this year.
Four rate hikes are possible this year if data stays decent.
The Federal Reserve will stop tightening if there is much weaker data or disruptive volatility threatening the business cycle.
Credit markets, inflation expectations, and monetary aggregates (excluding excess reserves) are key indicators to watch for derailing Fed policy.
A slowdown in the U.S. business cycle occurred from late 2014 into mid-2015.
M1 money growth weakened a lot into early last year and has now recovered.
If credit markets, inflation expectations, and monetary aggregates look healthy, the Federal Reserve will continue raising rates or shrinking the balance sheet.
Ongoing softness in macro data would be needed for the Federal Reserve to stop hiking rates.
The March payroll report was disappointing.
Underlying organic labor force growth is probably only 75K to 125K.
If dollar strength is coupled with adverse moves in credit markets and inflation expectations, the Federal Reserve will take note.
The Federal Reserve moved to the sidelines in 2016 due to adverse conditions.
Citigroup generated the most revenue from fixed income trading in three years.
Citigroup's consumer bank revenue increased 1%, which is below analyst expectations.
M&A activity was down year-over-year for banks.
Debt and equity underwriting, particularly IPOs like Snap, made up for the M&A decline.
Expectations are for some easing on bank regulations (Dodd-Frank) under the Trump administration.
Regulatory reform could allow banks to get involved in more products and achieve higher returns.
Wells Fargo is still dealing with the fake account scandal.
John Stumpf's pay package saw clawbacks.
U.S. banks are much stronger than European banks.
Consolidation of U.S. banks in Europe is unlikely unless there are unusual circumstances.
Regulatory reform for banks in the U.S. will likely be marginal, not a big mandate from Donald Trump.
Narayana Kocherlakota was heartened by President Donald Trump's comments about Chair Janet Yellen.
Chair Janet Yellen has kept unemployment low and inflation close to target.
It will be hard for President Donald Trump to find reasons to say Chair Janet Yellen has not been doing her job.
President Donald Trump likes low interest rate policies.
President Donald Trump has previously expressed hawkish views on monetary policy and positive sentiments towards the gold standard.
Low interest rates are a friend to a pro-growth agenda.
The Federal Reserve's job is to keep inflation at target and employment at maximum, not to keep interest rates low.
The Federal Reserve will not pay attention to the president's preferences on interest rates.
A big question for the Federal Reserve is the likelihood of fiscal stimulus and its impact on inflationary pressures.
President Donald Trump's comments made it clear the administration is still pro-infrastructure.
The Federal Reserve can continue to tighten economic conditions with the current balance sheet size.
Eventually, the amount of excess reserves will return to pre-crisis levels due to economic growth.
If the Federal Reserve halts reinvestments, it must raise rates more slowly.
The Federal Reserve's ultimate objective is 2% inflation and maximum employment.
Chair Janet Yellen stated unemployment was lower than the committee saw as sustainable over the long run.
The Federal Reserve worries that if they don't tighten gradually, they will have to tighten rapidly and cause a recession.
Narayana Kocherlakota believes unemployment is not a great metric for the health of the labor market right now.