Every atomic assertion extracted from the underlying record, ranked by evidence strength.
The war in Iran is driving up global commodity prices.
Euro area inflation accelerated last month, increasing from 2.6% to 3.0%.
US inflation increased from 3.3% to 3.8%.
Euro area GDP grew by 0.1% last quarter (0.2% excluding Ireland).
KBC leaves the GDP growth outlook for China unchanged, at 4.7% average growth in 2026 and 4.1% in 2027.
The Chinese economy has shown some degree of resilience to the disruptions caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
KBC expects the US central bank to remain on the sidelines for the rest of 2026 and early 2027.
The rate of price increases for non-energy goods in the Euro area accelerated from 0.5% to 0.8%, the highest level since April 2024.
US unit labour cost increased by only 1.2% year-on-year in Q1.
US inflation made another major jump in April, from 3.3% to 3.8%.
US information processing equipment and software investment made a 0.35% contribution to GDP.
The expected average real GDP growth for the Euro area for 2027 has been lowered from 1.3% to 1.2%.
An Atlanta Fed Survey reported that 74.1% of firms are using Generative AI technology, up from 46.4% in November last year.
The uncertainty surrounding KBC's US growth forecast is elevated, with important risks to both the downside and the upside.
US food prices also rose sharply.
As of Monday 18 May, oil prices reached 110 USD per barrel.
Another big jump in energy prices was the prime culprit for US inflation.
Euro area food inflation remained unchanged.
US core inflation was driven by a big (one-off) increase in shelter prices.
The conflict in Iran is lasting longer than KBC initially anticipated.
The decrease in Euro area core inflation was the result of another drop in services inflation.
Higher inflation over a longer period remains the main risk for the Euro area, particularly if the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz were to last longer than expected.
Growth in the German, Italian and Spanish economies was significantly higher than expected, at 0.3%, 0.2% and 0.6% respectively.
The war in the Middle East is eroding confidence among both consumers and businesses in the Euro area.
KBC maintains its Euro area growth forecast of 0.7% for this year.
The Euro area unemployment rate fell again in March to its historic low of 6.2%.
KBC upgrades its 2026 Euro area inflation forecast by 0.1 percentage point to 2.8%.
US GDP grew by 0.5% last quarter.
KBC upgrades its 2027 Euro area inflation forecast by 0.1 percentage point to 2.0%.
KBC maintains its US growth forecast of 2.0% for 2026 and 1.9% for 2027.
Annual Chinese GDP growth is expected at 4.7% in 2026 and 4.1% in 2027.
The outlook for the Chinese economy remains largely unchanged compared to last month.
The Euro area inflation increase was again caused by another jump in energy prices.
Both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank kept rates unchanged in April.
KBC expects both central banks to largely look through the current energy shock.
KBC expects the European Central Bank to keep rates unchanged in 2026 and 2027.
US core inflation accelerated from 2.6% to 2.7%.
KBC expects the Federal Reserve to keep rates unchanged this year.
KBC expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates twice in 2027, bringing the Fed funds rate to a neutral level.
The war in Iran continues to cause enormous volatility in energy markets.
KBC upgrades its 2026 US inflation forecast by 0.3 percentage points to 3.6%.
Euro area core inflation decreased from 2.3% to 2.2%.
KBC still expects Iran and the US to reach an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in the near term.
KBC upgrades its 2027 US inflation forecast by 0.3 percentage points to 2.7%.
Euro area services inflation cooled to 3.0%, the lowest level since March 2022.
The International Energy Agency reports that global supply declined by 12.8 million barrels per day because of the war.
Output from affected Gulf countries is 14.4 million barrels per day lower than before the war.
Euro area core goods inflation increased again.
Global observed oil inventories declined by more than 240 million barrels in March and April combined.
France and the Netherlands disappointed with (almost) zero growth.
Gas prices are under pressure due to the conflict and the cut-off of LNG supplies from Qatar.
As of Monday 18 May, gas prices reached 50 EUR per MWh, increasing 77% year-to-date.
KBC slightly downgrades its 2027 Euro area growth forecast to 1.2%.
As of Monday 18 May, natural gas prices reached 50 EUR per MWh.
According to Eurostat's flash estimate, real GDP growth in the euro area stood at 0.1% quarter-on-quarter.
According to the International Monetary Fund, global fertilizer prices are up 47% year-to-date.
According to Eurostat's preliminary estimate, inflation in the euro area rose by 0.4 percentage points to 3.0% in April.
Euro area energy price inflation more than doubled from 5.1% in March to 10.8% in April.
Euro area food price inflation remained unchanged at 2.4% in April.
The outlook for the European Central Bank is much more uncertain.