The U.S.-Iran ceasefire is fragile, with fresh strikes in the Persian Gulf making a deal unlikely until June as both sides believe they hold leverage. Meanwhile, experts debate Artificial Intelligence's economic impact, forecasting long-term productivity gains and job creation but warning of initial inflationary pressures from significant capital expenditure. KKR reported strong Q1 2026 earnings, with management fees up 30%, despite a 19% year-to-date stock decline, and sees institutional investors viewing the current private credit market as an attractive entry point.
Every atomic assertion extracted from the underlying record, ranked by evidence strength.
A deal between the U.S. and Iran is unlikely until June.
KKR's management fees in Q1 were up 30% year-on-year.
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KKR had its second-highest fee-related earnings quarter in its history.
Negotiations between the U.S. and Iran appear deadlocked, with both sides believing they hold the advantage.
In the ETF markets, volume and liquidity lessens after 4 p.m. until the next morning.
KKR had its third-largest adjusted net income quarter ever.
The risk of the ceasefire collapsing between the U.S. and Iran remains elevated.
Massive CapEx in certain places, like data centers, has been incredibly inflationary.
Torsten Slok of Apollo believes AI will drive productivity gains and create opportunities that will more than replace jobs lost today.
KKR believes now is a good time for institutional investors to enter direct lending.
The Chinese do not need to see a deal between the U.S. and Iran come together for the Trump-Xi meeting to occur.
China is not a critical interlocutor in the U.S.-Iran debate.
The Iran conflict is not an impediment to the U.S.-China relationship's desire for calm.
The U.S. wants to avoid disruption to critical mineral supplies.
Disruptive effects across global supply chains will impact the U.S. economy.
Mounting economic pressure will ultimately make the U.S. agree to a deal, but not for several more weeks.
Cheaper goods from China after its WTO entry made it cheaper to produce things in the U.S., leading to higher economic activity without increased unemployment.
The China shock created regional specific shocks in U.S. manufacturing sectors.
AI as a cheaper input to the U.S. business universe should lead to growth in employment.
The number of businesses created in the U.S. is at the highest level in U.S. history.
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Iranians are dug in and not willing to give concessions on the nuclear program that Donald Trump wants.
Iran believes it has superior leverage in the deal.
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Recent attacks were about reasserting Iranian dominance over the Strait of Hormuz.
A deal cannot come together until the nuclear issue is unlocked and the pain is higher.
Iranians want to stop being bombed.
Iran is shipping about 30% of its pre-war oil.
Oil prices are much higher than pre-war levels.
The hit to Iran's budget from the blockade is only about 30% to 40% of its pre-war budget.
Iran's regime is solid despite the economic hit.
Economic pain is not necessarily the primary driver for Iran to come to the negotiating table.
Iran is proposing plans to open the Strait of Hormuz with a phased discussion about nuclear targets.
Iran would not be engaging in talks and proposals if they did not want a deal.
The meeting between President Trump and Xi Jinping on May 14th is still on.
Donald Trump is domestically resilient to the fight so far.
China wants access to global markets.
Oil prices are well above $100 a barrel.
Brent crude for December is over $90 a barrel.
The conflict has gone on longer than anticipated.
It is hard to see oil prices staying contained if the conflict continues for several more weeks.
There is enormous global pain from shortages of helium, fertilizer, and aluminum.
Oil prices will likely go up from current levels.
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New York Fed President John Williams is staying positive on tech's labor market impact.
Coinbase announced job cuts attributed to becoming more of a startup-like culture and AI.
Running a call center has become cheaper due to voice recognition and AI.
Employment in call centers in the Philippines has been going up for the last 10 years.
When inputs become cheaper, there is much more demand for those inputs.
Radiologists' salaries (around $500,000) and employment have continued to go up even as AI can read scans.
Across industries, inputs of production have basically gone down.
The Jevons paradox of AI could leave people unmoored without work.
Job categories most impacted by AI, particularly in programming and some software parts, may see negative impact.