Every atomic assertion extracted from the underlying record, ranked by evidence strength.
The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate for US GDP growth has been reduced to an annualized rate of 0.7%.
Iron ore prices rose 6% last week, despite China having downgraded its growth forecasts.
Brent crude oil prices increased by 2.7% on Friday.
The 12-month and three-month annualized core PCE, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, is 3.1%.
The UK's GDP growth rate was flat for January and 0.8% for the year.
WTI crude oil prices increased by 3.1% on Friday.
Core durable goods orders were flat, compared to an expectation of 0.5% growth.
Canada's unemployment rate increased from 6.5% in January to 6.7%.
The DXY gained 1.4% last week.
The Euro Stocks 50 fell 0.5% last week.
Donald Trump stated he would know when the war is over by feeling it "in his bones."
UK 10-year gilt yields increased by 20 basis points last week.
Brent crude oil is currently trading over $103 per barrel.
The Australian dollar fell 1.4% on Friday.
The quits rate remains low at approximately 2%.
Core PCE inflation has been 0.4% for the second consecutive month.
The London Metal Exchange Index fell approximately 2% last week.
Brent crude oil prices increased by 11% last week.
The S&P 500 fell 1.6% last week.
Australian 10-year bond yields climbed 15 basis points last week.
Real US consumer spending in January increased by 0.1%.
US consumption growth for the quarter has been revised down to 2%.
The Nasdaq lost 1.3% last week.
US job openings, as reported in JOLTS figures, increased from 6.5 million to 6.9 million.
Full-time employment in Canada decreased by over 100,000 in one month.
US 10-year Treasury yields climbed 14 basis points last week.
Markets are becoming more cautious due to the ongoing war.
Ray Atrell states that the Reserve Bank of Australia is the only central bank among those mentioned expected to raise interest rates this week.
Ray Atrell notes strong competing forces influencing the Australian dollar.
Ray Atrell highlights that the Japanese Yen is approaching the 160 level against the dollar, a level last seen before Bank of Japan intervention in 2024.
Ray Atrell suggests that the job openings data is "a little bit better than expected and holding up at least."
Ray Atrell notes broad US dollar strength.
Phil Dobby notes that while job openings rose to 6.9 million, this is not a significant improvement compared to previous months last year when they exceeded 7 million.
Ray Atrell suggests that Chris Waller, a consistent advocate for lower rates, might shift to supporting unchanged rates given recent inflation news.
Ray Atrell observes classic risk-off market behavior, including sizable weekly falls in equities, with European and Asian markets suffering more than US markets.
Ray Atrell states that Friday's price action across equities, bonds, and currencies reflects continued increases in oil prices, with Brent crude ending the week above $100.
Ray Atrell attributes the market's revised view on the war's duration to trends observed in the oil market.
Ray Atrell believes markets are increasingly concluding that the initial optimism for a three to four-week war, touted by Donald Trump, is unrealistic.
Phil Dobby suggests the conflict is unlikely to end quickly.
The revised Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate of 0.7% annualized growth is barely above 0.1% on a quarter-on-quarter basis.
There is a prospect of ground troops being deployed in the conflict.
The US dollar is the only currency gaining amidst current global conditions.
Most economies were struggling before the current conflict.
A few weeks prior, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate projected US GDP growth above 4%.
Phil Dobby notes significant uncertainty impacting the economic outlook.
The Iranian foreign minister stated on CBS News that Iran sees no reason to talk with the US because the US attacked them during previous talks.
The Federal Reserve was presented with data on Friday showing higher core PCE, slower consumer spending growth, and a significant downward revision in Q4 GDP.
Ray Atrell believes that inclinations to ease monetary policy have been postponed due to inflation risks associated with the conflict.
Revisions to net export numbers are a contributing factor to the downward revision of US GDP.
Donald Trump believes Iran desires a deal.
Market expectations for a Bank of England rate cut this week have nearly disappeared.
The Bank of England previously had a narrow 5-4 decision to keep rates on hold.
Ray Atrell suggests that without the conflict in Iran, a Bank of England rate cut would have been likely this week.
Ray Atrell expects Stephen Moran to advocate for lower rates at the Federal Reserve meeting.
Ray Atrell anticipates Christine Lagarde's statements at the press conference will be more interesting than the dated ECB forecasts.
Phil Dobby states that inflation is not falling and there is a risk it will increase due to the war.
Markets are beginning to assume the war in Iran will not end soon.
Rising oil prices contribute to a negative economic outlook if the war does not end quickly.
The European Central Bank's updated inflation and growth forecasts, with a cutoff point in the third week of February, will be effectively dated.
The Federal Reserve will release a new dot plot and updated forecasts.