Every atomic assertion extracted from the underlying record, ranked by evidence strength.
Janet Yellen stated on August 26th in Jackson Hole that if productivity were to increase, it would "raise the average level of interest rates."
Many believe the new neutral rate is not 4% but 2%, or probably in the twos.
Aspects of the financial crisis, such as weak credit growth (credit impulse), still linger.
The American Health Care Act died before getting to the House floor on Friday afternoon.
The next issue is not tax reform but a bruising partisan fight over the budget and debt ceiling over the next few months.
Investors should think in terms of total return, not just price movements, and focus on segments of the bond market offering reasonable interest income.
Some of the bond yield increase reflected the idea of the U.S. economy getting stronger than anticipated (above 2.2% pace).
The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates twice since the election, in December and March.
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Donald Trump learns from lessons and usually tends to bounce back.
Healthcare reform is difficult because it involves taking away benefits, such as potential cuts in Medicaid.
Tax cuts are easier to pass than healthcare reform because they are perceived as giving a gift to Americans.
Politics is playing a very low role in the bond market in one sense because Washington has been dysfunctional for a while.
The number of laws passed by Congress in the last four years is the least in about 200 years, hurting the U.S. economy and keeping bond yields down.
The Federal Reserve will more than likely keep raising rates because the global economy is faring pretty well.
Bond yields had moved up from 1.8% (U.S. 10-year) just before the election to about 2.6%.
Janet Yellen believes the real rate (neutral rate) will move higher over time.
Current productivity numbers are far south of 1%, reflecting a lack of government action to support it.
The yield peaked on December 15th at 2.60% because the Fed got tougher.
Banks are expected to loosen purse strings and increase lending globally, especially with less stringent regulatory impulses.
Increased lending would afford a faster increase in nominal GDP, coinciding with higher real interest rates.
The neutral rate for the Fed's policy rate is where the Fed is neither pressing on the gas nor the brake, with unemployment at 4.7% and inflation near 2%.
Historically, the nominal neutral rate has been about 4.25%, with inflation around 2%, implying a 2% real rate.
There will be a huge fight over Trump's spending cuts, and many will not occur, but defense spending will increase.
Demographic influence (80 million Americans age 55 and older) keeps the real neutral rate down by slowing labor force growth.
Lack of investment by companies and government is impairing the ability to produce more goods and services, constraining growth.
A company today has fewer things in place per unit of labor (e.g., 48 computers for 100 people vs. 50 computers five years ago) due to declining capital intensity.
A change in productivity would change the low real interest rate environment.
The equity market's leap of faith is partly based on the idea that government action will encourage companies to invest more.
The global economy is expected to grow nominally about 5.5% this year, leading to double-digit corporate profit gains.
The bond market had anticipated a "Trump bump" but believed it might not last.
Higher productivity would lead to more income for companies and people, more spending, a higher nominal GDP, and higher interest rates.
Historically, the U.S. economy grew at about a 3% pace due to 1% increase in labor and 2% increase in productivity.
Around 4% nominal GDP in the U.S. means financial repression for a long time.
The stock market is clinging to the hope of corporate tax reform and cuts in individual tax rates.
The Fed's job to "protect the path" was to be tough and vigilant when bond market vigilantes sold bonds due to prospects of faster economic growth and higher inflation.
The U.S. 10-year yield went from 1.80% to 2.60% quickly.
Janet Yellen stated on December 14th that the Fed might raise rates more and would do it again, leading to two rate hikes since then.
U.S. nominal GDP is more likely to be around 4% this year, which is not politically acceptable.
Greg Vallier predicted the American Health Care Act would die either on the House or Senate floor.
Inactivity in Washington is suppressing productivity in the United States, a key driver of growth.
The White House needs to lobby better and bring in the Freedom Caucus and moderates.
The White House feels they were oversold by Paul Ryan regarding the American Health Care Act.
Donald Trump got wrong that you can't set arbitrary deadlines or make threats in Washington; threats don't usually work.
Healthcare is an albatross, and every administration that owns the issue regrets it.
The bond market has been pricing for the Federal Reserve to keep its policy rate around 2% by 2020, well below historical norms of 5%.
There is no agreement among Republicans on tax reform, including whether it should be revenue neutral or include a border tax.
A government shutdown on April 28th is unlikely, as the White House will browbeat opponents.
Risk premia is being extracted out of bonds following events in Washington on Friday.
The big fight is the debt ceiling this summer.
Dynamic scoring will be very generous for proponents of tax reform.
Revenue will be lost from the failure of health reform and if a border tax is not implemented.
Donald Trump called out the Freedom Caucus, Club for Growth, and Heritage Foundation in a tweet.
Trump now views the Freedom Caucus, Club for Growth, and Heritage Foundation as "radioactive" and needs to hint at working with Democrats.
Democrats have no incentive to throw Donald Trump a "life preserver" right now.
House Speaker Paul Ryan's speakership is not in jeopardy because there is no logical successor.
The rush to pass healthcare reform before opening day of baseball was a result of "drinking their own Kool-Aid" and hubris.
Donald Trump set himself up for a fall by saying politicians in Washington were stupid and he was the only one who could negotiate.
The market's issue may be whether Donald Trump is "in over his head," not just delayed tax reform.
ETF markets experience reduced volume and liquidity after 4 p.m. until the next morning.