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  "slug": "rates-desks-head-into-midterms-week",
  "edition": "2026-10-31T00",
  "url": "https://hangingcontext.com/stories/2026-10-31/rates-desks-head-into-midterms-week/",
  "newsroom": "business-podcasts",
  "beat": null,
  "newsroom_title": "Business Podcasts",
  "angle": "Rate and currency desks head into midterm week expecting a December hike, heavy Treasury supply, and a calm dollar.",
  "headline": "Midterms, refunding and a December hike: rate desks map a crowded November",
  "dek": "J.P. Morgan, Nomura and Nordea podcasts published on October 30 converged on the same near-term calendar: a possible December rate hike, a large Treasury funding programme, and midterm elections that matter more for oversight than for legislation.",
  "published_at": "2026-10-31T00:40:59Z",
  "labels": {
    "trust": "confirmed",
    "trust_text": "Confirmed · 4 sources",
    "newsroom": "Business Podcasts"
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  "source_count": 4,
  "publishers": [
    "jpmorgan-podcast",
    "nomura-week-ahead-podcast",
    "nordea-markets-insights-dk-podcast"
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  "key_facts": [
    {
      "text": "J.P. Morgan expects a rate hike at the next FOMC meeting in December, and Nomura expects one final 25-basis-point hike in December.",
      "self_reported": false,
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    {
      "text": "Treasury is expected to issue $991 billion in net privately held bills in calendar year 2027, according to J.P. Morgan's rates podcast.",
      "self_reported": false,
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    {
      "text": "Nomura's public policy team put the chance of Democrats flipping the House at 90% and the Senate at 60%.",
      "self_reported": false,
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    {
      "text": "J.P. Morgan's FX team prefers the euro as a funding currency for carry trades over the Swiss franc or yen.",
      "self_reported": false,
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  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "A December hike still on the table",
      "paragraphs": [
        {
          "markdown": "The rates discussion starts from a steady hold with a hawkish edge. J.P. Morgan's rates podcast, hosted by analysts Amanda Burke and Jay Barry, said the FOMC held interest rates steady at its most recent meeting but added language that accumulating more information will help determine the policy stance for returning inflation to 2%. The same podcast said J.P. Morgan expects a rate hike at the December meeting, and Nomura's week-ahead podcast separately expected one final 25-basis-point hike in December.",
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        },
        {
          "markdown": "The calendar itself is changing. The J.P. Morgan podcast noted that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh announced some future meetings will focus entirely on broad monetary policy strategy rather than policy decisions, and Nordea's podcast said the Federal Reserve plans to reduce the number of meetings where rate decisions are made from eight to seven next year and to six by 2028. Fewer decision meetings means fewer scheduled chances to recalibrate, which the J.P. Morgan discussion flagged as a live question for next year.",
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    {
      "heading": "The Treasury calendar looms over the vote",
      "paragraphs": [
        {
          "markdown": "Running alongside the Fed calendar is a heavy funding programme. J.P. Morgan's rates podcast said Treasury is expected to issue $991 billion in net privately held bills in calendar year 2027, and projected a $1.96 trillion deficit for fiscal year 2027. The podcast also flagged a significant risk that the Treasury Department cuts long-end auction sizes in response to discomfort with yield levels, even though its base expectation is that current auction sizes are maintained through August 2027. That tension, between the base case and the intervention risk, is the refunding question desks are watching.",
          "cites": [
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        },
        {
          "markdown": "Europe adds a fiscal strain of its own. Nordea's podcast said France's fiscal situation is unsustainable because interest rates are significantly higher than growth rates, and that France would require a primary balance of around 2% to maintain fiscal sustainability at current interest rate levels. The same discussion noted euro area inflation reached 3.8% in September, a backdrop that limits how much relief central banks can offer indebted governments.",
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    },
    {
      "heading": "Currencies expect a quiet vote, politics expects noise",
      "paragraphs": [
        {
          "markdown": "Currency strategists are notably calmer about the midterms than the political commentators. J.P. Morgan's FX team said the US midterm elections are not a major event risk for foreign exchange because the presidency is not changing, and that a strong Democratic performance historically correlates with a flat to lower dollar in the following month. The team maintains a constructive view on the dollar versus low-yielding currencies and prefers the euro as a funding currency for carry trades rather than the Swiss franc or yen.",
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        },
        {
          "markdown": "The political forecast itself is stark. Nomura's public policy team, via Samira Fazili on the week-ahead podcast, put Democrats' chances of flipping the House at 90% and the Senate at 60%, while Nordea's podcast said the midterms will likely produce a lame-duck president with limited legislative progress regardless of the outcome. Nomura added that regulatory agencies are unlikely to change their agendas much, but that the AI industry is a likely target for upcoming congressional investigations. The market read-across is that November may bring more oversight theatre than policy change, with the debt limit, in Nomura's phrase, likely unaddressed until a crisis point.",
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  ],
  "unresolved": [
    "Whether Treasury cuts long-end auction sizes despite its base expectation of unchanged sizes through August 2027.",
    "How far congressional investigations into the AI industry go after the midterms.",
    "When the US debt limit is addressed, given Nomura's view that it will likely wait for a crisis."
  ],
  "decision_card": {
    "useful_for": [
      "Rates and FX desks positioning into November",
      "Readers tracking the Treasury refunding calendar"
    ],
    "not_for": [
      "Voters looking for election predictions as fact",
      "Readers wanting a single call on the dollar"
    ],
    "compare_against": [
      "The Fed's published statements and meeting calendar",
      "Treasury's quarterly refunding announcement"
    ]
  },
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    "run_id": "2026-10-31T00"
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      "title": "US Rates: Between a rock and a hard place",
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      "published_date": "2026-10-30"
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      "manifest_id": "1793382667700232868",
      "title": "The Week Ahead - Midterm madness?",
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      "title": "Danske aktier hitter",
      "source_name": "nordea-markets-insights-dk-podcast",
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  "related": [
    {
      "url": "https://hangingcontext.com/stories/2026-10-31/ai-capex-moves-into-credit-markets/",
      "headline": "The AI build-out is now a credit story: bond markets are pricing the debt behind it",
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    {
      "url": "https://hangingcontext.com/stories/2026-10-30/podcast-inflation-supply-side-rates/",
      "headline": "On the podcast circuit, inflation looks like a supply problem rates cannot fix",
      "slug": "podcast-inflation-supply-side-rates"
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    {
      "url": "https://hangingcontext.com/stories/2026-10-29/podcast-politics-market-input/",
      "headline": "On the Podcast Circuit, Politics Is Priced Like a Market Input",
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      "url": "https://hangingcontext.com/stories/2026-10-28/podcasts-fed-timing-split/",
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